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Sideface:
BBC News - Donald Trump 2024: Why it will be harder for him to run this time
today (condensed +++)
Six ways it's harder for Trump to run this time:
1. Running with a record - While Mr Trump had some notable policy achievements during his four years in office, he also had some prominent failures.
2. The shadow of 6 January - Trump will have to defend the way he handled the end of his presidency and his role in the 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol.
3. Legal headaches - Trump is currently defending himself against a criminal election-tampering inquiry in Georgia, a civil fraud case targeting his business empire in New York, a defamation lawsuit involving a sexual assault allegation, and federal probes into his role in the Capitol attack and his post-presidential handling of classified material.
4. A tougher opponent - The Florida governor could emerge as the consensus pick among the party faithful not interested in giving Mr Trump another shot.
5. Popularity woes - According to exit polls from the recently concluded midterm elections, Mr Trump is simply not very popular - including in the key states he would need to win to secure the presidency in a general election.
6. Father Time - If he wins the presidency, Mr Trump would be 78 years old when he's sworn in.
That means nothing for his *supporters. They don't read newspaper, don't watch TV, don't care what you think. The party seems to also reflect that.
I vividly recall CNN analyses, projections, facts, etc, when Trump won.
For all I know he can run around naked for a year, field a monkey for VP, and still get elected next POTUS and SCOTUS will help him where they can.
* I know these people personally
As ridiculous as that might sound to some people, what you're stating there is right - I remember all the polls in the world in 2016 that said Hillary was going to win, but they totally underestimated Trump's popularity (or dislike of Hillary). His fanbase only listens to one source of "the truth" - him. Everything else is outside their echo chamber and - as you say - they just ignore it.
It's a bit different this time around to 2016 though, if Trump stays the course it's going to be interesting (and possibly depressing) to watch.
Yes he appeals to his hardcore base but outside of that, a lot of Republican voters are simply turned off by his ongoing dramas, and he makes absolutely no effort to appeal to anyone outside of his base.
quickymart:
Yes he appeals to his hardcore base but outside of that, a lot of Republican voters are simply turned off by his ongoing dramas, and he makes absolutely no effort to appeal to anyone outside of his base.
Him running gives him some leverage in the form of agreeing to withdraw, possibly for a favourable deal down the line if his current legal woes continue to worsen.
At the moment he has no chance of success and he will be being told that from every direction, so I can only assume it's either an attempt to give himself some pull when he needs it, or he's just genuinely unhinged.
I mean.... flip a coin?
I have a feeling he would never withdraw - this is the guy who thought Americans who died from coronavirus were "weak", so I highly doubt he's going to do the honourable thing and withdraw from the race.
I recall back in 2016 when Ted Cruz won the Iowa primary. Trump screamed election fraud from the rooftops back then, simply because he didn't win, although he lost Iowa fair and square. If he somehow makes it to the primaries again and ultimately doesn't win, he will just do the same thing again and yell "election fraud" at whoever wins the primary. He wouldn't withdraw - that would be a sign of weakness.
Just my 2c.
quickymart:he makes absolutely no effort to appeal to anyone outside of his base.
TRUMP TO TRY FOR HISTORIC THIRD IMPEACHMENT
PALM BEACH (The Borowitz Report)—Stating “No one’s ever done this before,” Donald J. Trump announced plans to be impeached for a historic third time.
Speaking to supporters in a ballroom at Mar-a-Lago, the former President claimed that he and only he could bring impeachable offenses back to the White House.
Although he was short on specifics about which crimes he might commit, Trump pledged, “We’re gonna perpetrate so much, you’re gonna get tired of the perpetrating.”
He contrasted his record for getting impeached with that of his successor, Joe Biden, who, he claimed, “is too low-energy to commit a felony.”
“Sleepy Joe has been President for almost two years, and how many impeachments does he have to show for it? Zero,” he said. “The rest of the world is looking at this President who can’t get a single impeachment, and they’re laughing at us. Laughing at us. This should never be allowed to happen in this country.”
'Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.' Voltaire
'A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government.' Edward Abbey
neb: He's not appealing to his base, he expects his base to appeal to him.
Having people queueing up to leave his last rally must have been devastating to him.
Sideface
This is quite amusing:
https://www.thebulwark.com/lies-losing-and-low-energy-trump-runs-again/
neb: He's not appealing to his base, he expects his base to appeal to him.
Having people queueing up to leave his last rally must have been devastating to him.
I wonder if he even noticed. He is not exactly perceptive and who would point it out to him?
Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos
I just saw an item on CNN regarding Trump's legal liability over the Mar-a-Lago documents. Apparently every lawyer who matters has gone on record stating that Trump is guilty as hell of multiple crimes, that this has been established beyond any possible doubt, that any prosecution would result in him being found guilty, and in every other comparable case that has ever been tried, the only possible result was prison.
Like many of these lawyers, I think the justice department will almost have to charge him. The question (and probably the reason he hasn't already been charged), is how the fanatics who worship him will react. I think this will most likely lead to major civil unrest across the country, and possibly actual civil war. What are the likely scenarios if he is actually imprisoned? What is the prospect of that happening? How can not imprisoning him be explained away?
Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos
While he still maintains his base of support, it has waned considerably from 2016, plus he's no longer president. So yes, there would be some outrage; but note the fact that given his re-launch for 2024 the other night was described as "low-energy" and a number of Republicans are now speaking out against him announcing he's running while the Georgia runoff is still up in the air, they are not amused and view him as a distraction.
This time around he doesn't have as much sway - no way in hell would any Republican have dared to cross him in this way, in, say 2018.
But then again, no one in late 2015 thought he would win the nomination, never mind the presidency, did they? Having said that, I remain cautiously optimistic that this nothing more than attention-seeking and he won't get past the primaries. But we shall see.
Is Trump not enjoying himself anymore, like he was in 2016? Maybe.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/17/trump-2022-not-enjoying-himself-00069339
kingdragonfly: Watch Pence's response when asked if he'll support Trump in 2024
Pence is a white bread mayonnaise sandwich. 🧐
Sideface
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