Ukraine War discussion

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#3442702 11-Dec-2025 14:11

There is credible open-source reporting that Russian Navy warships already sometimes escort oil tankers belonging to what’s known as the Russian shadow fleet (or “dark fleet”).

These included tankers that likely switch off their standard location beacons (AIS) to evade detection.

In May, the defence minister of Finland publicly confirmed that Russian Navy ships had been detected escorting “shadow fleet” tankers through the Gulf of Finland.

A Russian corvette escorted sanctioned tankers 5 times through the English Channel in June.

Ukraine Attacks Another Russian Tanker! Dashan Hit Multiple Times in Black Sea!

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#3446003 20-Dec-2025 12:27

I think Trumps peace plan for Ukraine is becoming increasingly obvious.

He wants the war wrapped up sooner than later so that he and his backers/associates can start/resume doing business in Russia. The war is hampering their business goals.

Why else would you send two negotiators like Witkoff and Kushner? They have absolutely no diplomatic experience that prepares them to deal with the Russians. Their forte is making business deals. What's even more perverse IMO is send two people of Jewish descent to negotiate with a country that has a rich history in persecuting Jews.

For Trump and his friends the first priority is to be at the front of the queue business wise when the fighting stops. The next priority is to get the fighting stopped any way they can no matter the outcome for the protagonists.

Right now Zelensky and the rights of the Ukrainian people and Putin's arcane goals of resurrecting the old Soviet Union complete with the oppression that came with it are getting in the way of achieving the goal.

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#3446476 22-Dec-2025 18:43

Talks about peace are going well, constructive.

The 33rd time Ive read this. Not going to happen as Putin is the controller. UKR cant get the protection they want as not allowed by Putin. NATO and anyone else cant provide security support as not allowed. UKR cannot maintain their feet on the ground as not allowed.

At some point, International Law needs to be a thing, right now its not relevant as everyone is catering to a dictator who sees UKR as part of USSR 2.0 and he wont budge.

Some say, and here, this could end up as WWIII. What is a World War? Side A vs side B is not a world war. Putin is acting as a world war as he has had Chinese and PRNK on the ground, highly likely Belarussians as well. But UKR isnt allowed. Trump isnt helping which is a MAJOR understatement, as Putin gives him flowers and he capitulates. The normal countries no doubt scold Trumps idiocracy behind closed doors as if it was about being honest, they will be scolded by Trump as well as Putin, and tariffed et al. When Trump is electioned out of existence this will all change, but thats many Ukrainian lives away.

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#3446484 22-Dec-2025 20:04

It's not even a plan that Putin has said he accepts.
I think he has actually annexed more than what is proposed anyway and considers that irrevocable.
Putin has many non-negotiable demands far beyond it.

Its just to make Putin look like a good guy as all the pressure is put on Ukraine the victim.
Like who invaded who.

To weaken Ukraine support.
Why send more aid, more sanctions, invest in longer term ammunition production if the war could end next week.

Seems to be aimed at Trump, Kushner and associates dream of yet more gold and wealth.
The UAE, Saudi connection of Kushner, I expect they have a lot of dollars tied up in Russian investments.
Making sure the Russian money is not spent, and available for potential return to Putin.

I mean a security guarantee from Trump :-)
Honest Trump who always keeps his word ? :-)
Is that worth more than a Trump Casino, Coin, Watch, Phone or Golden Sneakers?

Putin has Trumps team encouraging BREXITs, and right-wing Putin supporting parties all around EU.

Keep what you kill, Putin.
Looking at the farthest extent of any Tzar's control as Russia's right, and I can do better than that.
Its not like Russia and Putin have any track record in regularly breaking agreements ?

Your capability to resist is all that stops him.

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#3446486 22-Dec-2025 21:27

Putin is starting squeal. Up until now he hasn't said too much about European leaders but in the last week when they got serious about utilising the frozen Russian assets in one way or another to help Ukraine he started calling them names.

IMO these assets should have been in play long ago. Even if only as a bargaining tool. You want your money back then give up all of the land you've taken since 2022, (or preferably all that seized since 2014) otherwise the money is going to be used to help Ukraine in one way or another.

As a footnote, if Russia was to stop the war and give back territory, reparations should be taken from this money and the balance returned.

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#3446487 22-Dec-2025 21:43

Technofreak:

… and the balance returned.

There won't be much to give back. I think there will be additional claims, since the war is mainly not taking place on Russian territory.

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#3446509 23-Dec-2025 08:38

Tinkerisk:

Technofreak:

… and the balance returned.

There won't be much to give back. I think there will be additional claims, since the war is mainly not taking place on Russian territory.

I agree.

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#3446523 23-Dec-2025 09:27

I'd love to see the US grow a spine and simply admit UKR into NATO and allow troops to enter and maintain borders. The old borders.
I doubt very much that Putin would launch a full scale nuclear war over his bluff being called. It would signal the end of Russia as we know it.

His ultimate goal is to recreate the USSR. Losing UKR and then moving on to another (friendlier) country like Belarus would be an easier job, surely.

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#3446628 23-Dec-2025 11:18

Handsomedan:

I'd love to see the US grow a spine and simply admit UKR into NATO and allow troops to enter and maintain borders. The old borders.
I doubt very much that Putin would launch a full scale nuclear war over his bluff being called. It would signal the end of Russia as we know it.

His ultimate goal is to recreate the USSR. Losing UKR and then moving on to another (friendlier) country like Belarus would be an easier job, surely.

It's not that easy: there has to be unanimous approval for a new NATO member, so even if the USA agreed, Hungary would almost certainly refuse.
Secondly, the current US President has strongly indicated that US commitment to the "one attacked, all attacked" defence guarantee of Article 5 of the NATO treaty is at best a bit soft, so being in NATO may not be such a benefit as it appears on the surface.

Ukraine may get better benefits from joining the EU, and continuing to encourage more joint military action from EU nations.
Hungary (amongst others) may be an issue there too.

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#3447353 26-Dec-2025 18:21

PolicyGuy:

Handsomedan:

I'd love to see the US grow a spine and simply admit UKR into NATO and allow troops to enter and maintain borders. The old borders.
I doubt very much that Putin would launch a full scale nuclear war over his bluff being called. It would signal the end of Russia as we know it.

His ultimate goal is to recreate the USSR. Losing UKR and then moving on to another (friendlier) country like Belarus would be an easier job, surely.

It's not that easy: there has to be unanimous approval for a new NATO member, so even if the USA agreed, Hungary would almost certainly refuse.
Secondly, the current US President has strongly indicated that US commitment to the "one attacked, all attacked" defence guarantee of Article 5 of the NATO treaty is at best a bit soft, so being in NATO may not be such a benefit as it appears on the surface.

Ukraine may get better benefits from joining the EU, and continuing to encourage more joint military action from EU nations.
Hungary (amongst others) may be an issue there too.

IMO it is that easy

EU countries (not the EU itself) and like minded countries can agree on a pact. Then, they can do what they like assisting to defend UKR and its borders on the ground and air. UN and NATO were devised for good reasons, but its become more political than a unified group, so enact another like minded group.

I see UKR is bowing down to cede territory, I get that, as Russia vs UKR isnt a fair fight. There is no US support. If there was, and if there was more direct EU support, its not allowed, by Putin, as Putin calls ALL of the shots, this is why the UN and NATO have failed.

Putin is in the box seat as he decides what works, no one else, that needs to end

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#3447827 29-Dec-2025 18:28

Ok, so a big meeting today. Trump says we are close. BS as everyone else knows its nowwhere near close.

Trump wants a win today, not bothered who is affected

Trump has a call with Putin, which then decides how much Trump bags Ukraine.

Ukraine will concede territory. No deal as Putin wants it all

Trump says if its not resolved now (all his doing), it will go on for years. Which is his doing

While Im not suggesting that the US go hard against Russia, they have no issue with direct military attacks. But not when a demographically elected sovereign country is attacked...

Problem is, UKR, EU, NATO and other like minded countries can say, thats hopeless, but then you get the Trump Effect. If EU etc mounted a military defense Trump will wear that. Tariffs, cut off intel and arms, that will meet his needs, and Putins needs, but not Ukraine, EU, NATO or law

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#3447879 29-Dec-2025 20:02

Vain showmanship. Nothing will come of it – Putin isn't really interested.

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#3448465 31-Dec-2025 16:08

The NY Times - The Separation: Inside the Unraveling U.S.-Ukraine Partnership (unlocked link)

As President Trump sought a peace deal and Vladimir V. Putin sought victory, factions in the White House and Pentagon bled the Ukrainian war effort.

30 Dec 2025

Donald J. Trump promised that he could bring peace to Ukraine in a single day.

What followed was nearly a year of on-again, off-again negotiations, apportioning of territory, administration infighting and a war still without end.

This is the story of how it unfolded.

A major long-form article, very detailed, not possible to summarize:

Headings:

Part 1 The Transition
Part 2 First Days
Part 3 ‘Just Be Honest With Me’
Part 4 ‘Be Very, Very Thankful’
Part 5 The Ukrainians
Part 6 The Russians
Part 7 ‘De Facto Anti-Ukraine Policy’
Part 8 ‘Something That Is Working’
Part 9 ‘We’re Arguing Over the Doorknobs’
Part 10 The Dash for a Deal

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#3448486 31-Dec-2025 17:17

I know this is trivial, but in the New York Times article they used the term “We’re arguing over the doorknobs”

I'm pretty sure that metaphor was made up on the spot, ad-hoc.

It correctly states negotiators are nowhere close to resolving more important decisions or compromises; they are stuck in microscopic negotiations over details.

A similar phrase I have heard is “arguing about the wallpaper while the house is burning down”

It is a rather sad Indictment of the Russians, Americans, and even the Chinese, in a Ukraine resource grab.

Too bad Putin's never heard the phrase sunk cost fallacy and Trump's never heard the phrase short termisim

tdgeek

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#3448501 31-Dec-2025 19:04

kingdragonfly: I know this is trivial, but in the New York Times article they used the term “We’re arguing over the doorknobs”

I'm pretty sure that metaphor was made up on the spot, ad-hoc.

It correctly states negotiators are nowhere close to resolving more important decisions or compromises; they are stuck in microscopic negotiations over details.

A similar phrase I have heard is “arguing about the wallpaper while the house is burning down”

It is a rather sad Indictment of the Russians, Americans, and even the Chinese, in a Ukraine resource grab.

Too bad Putin's never heard the phrase sunk cost fallacy and Trump's never heard the phrase short termisim

Agree, and also to Sideface

UKR is serious, they know that they need to cede territory.

EU and like minded nations are all in, but if they take a twinkle of credit, Trump will fight back

Putin (Im not calling it Russia) is serious. As its ok to invade a sovereign nation and be awarded the territorial wins. That they target hospitals, schools, kindies, apartment buildings doesn't seem relevant. But if UKR allegedly targeted Putins house, thats not acceptable.... /S. Trump was angry, Putin said because of that Russians, sorry, Putin, will take a harder stance.

I could blame the MANY nations that can and would put Putin and Russia in its place, but Putin AND Trump will fight back.The greatest and largest democracy in the world. Trump has caused this conflict to go on and on and on. Russia is poor and weak, but Trump is working hard to keep him in play

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