Ukraine War discussion

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#2860450 2-Feb-2022 09:49

MikeB4:

My take is yet again Europe and the US are putting world at risk of destruction playing mindless stupid games. Russia and the US are empires in decline with leaders doing childish puffery to appear strong. It's pathetic.

I think it's simplistic to characterise this as "mindless stupid games". The whole point of international politics is to maximise the power & wealth of your own country. Maximum benefit occurs when you're on the edge, so everyone plays brinksmanship as best they can. You make some threats in the hope of getting concessions. Think Nazi Germany and Austria and Czechoslovakia. If that fails and you're confident of success, you attack. e.g. Poland. Or you use embargos and other not-quite-war mechanisms to limit your rivals' power. Think USA and Japan in 1940. Of course, if you or your rival misjudge your relative strengths, then you get Pearl Harbour.

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#2860452 2-Feb-2022 10:02

Kookoo:

Remind us when US armed forces attacked Cuba in the wake of the Cuban missile crisis .

Bay of Pigs Invasion. US backed .
It failed .
https://www.britannica.com/event/Bay-of-Pigs-invasion

Anyway, why join NATO .
NATO EU countries have shown how unwilling they are to act militarily .

The US have a history of crushing small nations that crossed it or went to Communism or nationalized their assets .
Russia are more or less doing the same .

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#2860472 2-Feb-2022 10:45

frankv:

I think it's simplistic to characterise this as "mindless stupid games". The whole point of international politics is to maximise the power & wealth of your own country. Maximum benefit occurs when you're on the edge, so everyone plays brinksmanship as best they can. You make some threats in the hope of getting concessions. Think Nazi Germany and Austria and Czechoslovakia. If that fails and you're confident of success, you attack. e.g. Poland. Or you use embargos and other not-quite-war mechanisms to limit your rivals' power. Think USA and Japan in 1940. Of course, if you or your rival misjudge your relative strengths, then you get Pearl Harbour.

I was being simplistic I matched the various world leaders intelligence and abilities. What you have outlined above is the stupidity of the twentieth century. Wars don't work, sanctions don't work so maybe just maybe minding ones own business and stop forcing beliefs etc on others and here a novel approach put the bang bang toys away and bloody talk with and not to the other person.

The likes of Putin, Biden, Johnson don't give a toss about the people in their country or the counties wealth and prosperity. They are about power, their place in history and if applicable the next election.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

MikeB4

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#2860532 2-Feb-2022 11:07

Handsomedan:

I don't know how many on this page are old enough to remember the eighties, but it really does feel a lot like we are back there.

I remember doing "nuclear war" drills, where we largely did the same drill as earthquake drills, but were also instructed to keep our eyes firmly shut, etc.

I wonder how this will change the way in which our young people will look at geopolitics....

I am an old Vietnam War protestor. I feel I have lived my life with this BS hanging over me. I hoped it would be better for my mokopuna

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#2860561 2-Feb-2022 11:23

MikeB4:

The likes of Putin, Biden, Johnson don't give a toss about the people in their country or the counties wealth and prosperity. They are about power, their place in history and if applicable the next election.

I agree except that

Putin will rig the next election.

Biden won't make it to the next election.

Johnson won't make it to next month.

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#2860563 2-Feb-2022 11:24

Why doesn't Nato invite Russia to join.

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#2860575 2-Feb-2022 11:34

SJB:

Why doesn't Nato invite Russia to join.

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#2860597 2-Feb-2022 12:07

SJB:

Why doesn't Nato invite Russia to join.

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#2860599 2-Feb-2022 12:07

SJB: Why doesn't Nato invite Russia to join.

That was actually in progress for some time..

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partnership_for_Peace

Hibernating after the Crimea thing

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#2860604 2-Feb-2022 12:15

If Russia joined Nato how would the US justify the Trillions spent on defence? What would really shake things up is Russia joining the EU. The tantrum in Washington would be audible around the globe.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#2860624 2-Feb-2022 12:59

SJB:

Why doesn't Nato invite Russia to join.

Sir Humphrey Appleby illustrates the British point-of-view very well:

The purpose of NATO is to keep the Germans down, the Russians out and the Americans in

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#2860635 2-Feb-2022 13:39

PolicyGuy:

Sir Humphrey Appleby illustrates the British point-of-view very well:

The purpose of NATO is to keep the Germans down, the Russians out and the Americans in

Sir Humphrey what would he say about the current batch of leaders I would guess at least a thousand words.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#2860663 2-Feb-2022 14:20

MikeB4:

What would really shake things up is Russia joining the EU. The tantrum in Washington would be audible around the globe.

Or China joining the EU instead. That would really screw with Putins head as well.

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#2860682 2-Feb-2022 14:35

China would never join the EU. Europe would join the glorious Democratic People's Revolutionary Union of China and Ancient Chinese Territories.

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#2860761 2-Feb-2022 16:00

MikeB4:

What you have outlined above is the stupidity of the twentieth century. Wars don't work, sanctions don't work so maybe just maybe minding ones own business and stop forcing beliefs etc on others and here a novel approach put the bang bang toys away and bloody talk with and not to the other person.

It's not new to the twentieth century... what I described is how the powerful (kings and dukes and chieftains way back, nowadays politicians) have operated for millennia. The fact that they keep doing it suggests that either you're right and they haven't learned anything, or you're wrong and they have learned that threatening warfare, and often actual warfare, does in fact work. I favour the latter position. Do we not celebrate the great military victories that our side has won? That suggests that we believe that the outcome is considered well worth the cost.

NB that talking with/to the other person is in fact usual, so you can get as much from them as possible without having to use up your human and economic resources. It's only when they refuse to hand over any more that you resort to taking it by force (or postpone). The Crimea annexation, for example, followed a decade or more of Russian attempts to regain it from Ukraine by diplomacy and subversion. We saw the same thing in New Zealand, California, Texas, the Falklands, and see it in the South China Sea. One wonders what the outcome of Alaska would have been if the Russians had refused to sell.

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