Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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Forums › Politics › Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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#3467189 6-Mar-2026 09:06

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/renewed-leadership-speculation-as-poll-expected-to-have-national-slightly-above-2020-wipeout/GGCXU7BWCVD7NPVEDCVKHHSBFU/

The Herald understands that the poll is the worst in the series since Judith Collins led the National Party, with a rounded figure of 28% circulating among MPs.

That would be about two-and-a-half points above the party’s performance in the 2020 election (25.58%) and lower than the last 1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll recorded prior to Simon Bridges losing the leadership. National scored 38.06% at the last election.

National polled 29.6% in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll last October.

For once I agree with Winston, this doesn't look good, especially when the election isn't that far away. Unless things start changing - mostly around the cost of living - I think Luxon's tactic of blaming Labour for everything bad isn't going to get him much further ahead.

MikeB4

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#3467236 6-Mar-2026 12:17

Luxon to resign by as early as next week? what do folks think?

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

quickymart

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#3467238 6-Mar-2026 12:32

According to the party faithful he's "not going anywhere" but you know, famous last words...

https://archive.ph/ToGpl

Asked simply whether he had meant to say that he would support literally any action against Iran, Luxon was reduced to utter incoherence: “Well, I mean, we obviously understand – we’re not saying that, what we’re saying is, we understand there’s – I don’t know how to be any clearer guys.”

If he really doesn’t know how to be any clearer than that – and there is now five years of evidence suggesting he doesn’t – there’s no hope for him or his party.

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#3467239 6-Mar-2026 12:34

MikeB4:

Luxon to resign by as early as next week? what do folks think?

I have no idea but I wouldn't rule anything out. After that last babbling performance he is probably hanging by a thread.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#3467271 6-Mar-2026 14:25

If they're going to change, it needs to be soon, but who would be mad enough to put their hand up this close to an election with the party polls only going backwards?

The senior MPs that may otherwise be eligible (Bishop, Sanford) will likely try and have him in place long enough so that the likely election defeat can't blow back on them, he'll then be cannon fodder to roll post election if he doesn't throw himself on the sword as part of his concession speech on the night.

HelloThere

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#3467337 6-Mar-2026 18:52

If the election matches the polls, it looks like it'll be goodbye to Willis, Goldsmith and any other list MPs.

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#3467342 6-Mar-2026 19:17

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/588861/prime-minister-christopher-luxon-absolutely-not-considering-standing-down

Luxon said none of his Cabinet colleagues have told him to reconsider his future. He said "all of them" back him.

He said the only polling he takes note of is his National's own internal polling which gets processed in the United Kingdom.

"I would reassure you - if there was a problem, I would be doing something about it. But we are long way away from what we've seen published in a TPU poll today."

Confident, isn't he?

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#3467344 6-Mar-2026 19:30

I think the polling on the voting day is a more reliable one.

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#3467348 6-Mar-2026 20:28

freitasm:

I think the polling on the voting day is a more reliable one.

Not if you are talking to a certain orange leader😁

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

quickymart

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#3467351 6-Mar-2026 20:56

freitasm:

I think the polling on the voting day is a more reliable one.

Fully agree with you, however I think if the polls keep trending this way (ie, downwards) Luxon may find himself on the outs sooner rather than later, as would a few of his cabinet members who would be out too after the next election:

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/06-03-2026/horror-poll-for-national-and-luxon-which-big-beasts-would-be-out-of-a-job

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#3467363 6-Mar-2026 22:23

Recent electoral changes are likely to give a small advantage to National in any seats finishing with tiny majorities. Particularly this change:

The last day to enrol to vote will be 13 days before election day to [ahem] allow the Commission to complete enrolment processing before election day.

https://www.justice.govt.nz/about/news-and-media/news/electoral-law-changes/

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#3467472 7-Mar-2026 09:17

gzt: Recent electoral changes are likely to give a small advantage to National in any seats finishing with tiny majorities. Particularly this change:

The last day to enrol to vote will be 13 days before election day to [ahem] allow the Commission to complete enrolment processing before election day.

https://www.justice.govt.nz/about/news-and-media/news/electoral-law-changes/

Given that (as usual) their own advice from the experts told them it would make no significant difference to either costs or the speed at which results were known (the stated reason for the change) whereas it would potentially disenfranchise up to 100,000 people, the only conclusion you can draw from the fact that they did it anyway was because disenfranchising people who vote for their opponents was the point.

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#3467476 7-Mar-2026 09:31

A piece from Newsroom looking at how things are looking for Luxon and how he, indeed, may not be going anywhere (not before the election, at least):

https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/03/06/luxon-faces-existential-threat-after-torrid-week-and-damning-poll/

A last-minute change of leader in opposition, as when Jacinda Ardern stepped in for Andrew Little in 2017, is one thing; doing the same in government feels even more desperate, and is not a manoeuvre with any record of success in modern New Zealand politics.

Labour in 1989/90 tried moving from PM David Lange through PM Geoffrey Palmer to PM Mike Moore but suffered a hiding; National moved from PMs Jim Bolger to Jenny Shipley in 1997 but suffered defeat in 1999 as well. The Ardern to Chris Hipkins move of the prime ministership three years ago, ditto.

ezbee

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#3467482 7-Mar-2026 10:46

Quiet before the storm ?

People more active on variety of social media may confirm.
Are we in a quiet period and National/ACT are saving electioneering for later?

There are plenty of single issue divisive points that National/ACT/NZF can work on to put a fog over their lackluster term.

Roll out modern equivalents of Muldoon's Dancing Cossacks which crippled investment for decades while Australia built up its massive fund.
Easier these days as you just cut from Trump and Elon's X feed and ask Ai to reframe for New Zealand names and such.

If these parties could 7x to 10x Labour in electioneering funds like they did last time,
Social media has its power.

While its wall to wall Trump SMO, you are probably not wasting these riches ?

quickymart

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#3467538 7-Mar-2026 14:51

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/07-03-2026/if-national-mps-want-to-roll-luxon-there-is-one-big-hurdle-in-the-way

And Bolger – so warmly eulogised following his death in October – was, as one of his nine children observed at the funeral, “for periods, a deeply unpopular politician”. So unpopular that, 15 months into office, he was polling so poorly a Labour MP applied to have his preferred prime minister polling – just 7% – entered into the Guinness Book of Records as a world low. Fortunately for Bolger, Radio New Zealand found a lower example, in Japan. Unfortunately for Bolger, another poll would later put him at 6%.

In any case, it all makes Luxon’s ratings, if hardly something to brag about, look OK; he’s never sunk south of 19%.

Is that actually right? Was Bolger's rating only 6% at one point? Admittedly I was at high school at the time so didn't pay much attention to politics - but was the guy really that unpopular? If so, Luxon probably doesn't much to worry about with his current numbers (at the moment).

Mind you, politics in 2026 is a very different beast to 1991.

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