Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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#3489957 11-May-2026 18:30

https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360976086/verity-johnson-has-opportunity-party-gone-zombie-lazarus

https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/05/09/tips-for-top-ill-say-goodbye-even-though-im-blue-green/

Could the Opportunity Party actually have a decent shot at winning something this election, given the number of people unhappy with the two main parties?

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#3489959 11-May-2026 18:36

Don't know; they very much still suffer from the "they're not going to get into parliament, so I won't vote for them" problem. But good luck to them, genuinely - I considered joining them myself before the Greens.

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#3489984 11-May-2026 20:10

SaltyNZ:

Don't know; they very much still suffer from the "they're not going to get into parliament, so I won't vote for them" problem. But good luck to them, genuinely - I considered joining them myself before the Greens.

I like a lot of their ideas. Their idea of a tax shakeup as per their tax reset calculator really appeals, as otherwise the only people left will end up being rich old people, poor old people, and people saving up to move to Australia.

I've vote strategically in Whangarei for a realistic choice, but TOP will likely get my party vote.

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#3490001 11-May-2026 22:15

I have decided to vote for them. Just to see what happens.

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#3490031 12-May-2026 08:41

quickymart:

Could the Opportunity Party actually have a decent shot at winning something this election, given the number of people unhappy with the two main parties?

I read their detailed policy on an area that is within my professional expertise, looking to see if the policy was well informed. The policy was ambitious, and well-intentioned but dangerously naive. I wonder if all their policy is like that ...

Mike

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#3490043 12-May-2026 09:01

MikeAqua:

I read their detailed policy on an area that is within my professional expertise, looking to see if the policy was well informed. The policy was ambitious, and well-intentioned but dangerously naive. I wonder if all their policy is like that ...

They're still pushing a land tax. I think that tells you all you need to know.

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#3490073 12-May-2026 10:27

The hesitation on the land tax was my initial gut reaction too, the devil will be in the detail.

Despite this new tax, based on their tax calculator our household would be about $15k pa better off under a TOP tax scheme. That certainly sounds appealing, but if we would be that much better off, I can only assume many others may also be, which begs the question, who won't be? Someone else has to be paying significantly more or else their other policies won't work.

How does the tax work for fixed income / retirees who rely on super and can't afford this new tax? Will the Govt end up owning their property through unpaid taxes?

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#3490086 12-May-2026 10:50

sen8or:

How does the tax work for fixed income / retirees who rely on super and can't afford this new tax? Will the Govt end up owning their property through unpaid taxes?

From memory this was the response, you would have the option defer payments until you die and then it gets collected from the state.

I would have suggested that if your tax requires the State to become a de facto reverse mortgage provider then perhaps your tax just isn't as smart as you think it is.

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#3490094 12-May-2026 11:14

GV27:

They're still pushing a land tax. I think that tells you all you need to know.

I saw that. According to their calculator they would tax us for our land but then pay us a UBI with one nearly offsetting the other. It struck me as a lot of admin for what is on balance a minor transaction.

The concerns I have with a land tax are:

(1) Are the rateable values consistent? My observation as a buyer/seller is that RVs often differ from market value, depending on where and when you make the comparison. Some people will be overtaxed, and some undertaxed.

(2) Where is the cash coming from? There is a finite amount of cash in this country and a large amount of land value. Do we borrow from overseas to pay land taxes? (borrow and spend with extra steps)

(3) Does it become inflationary (for example by increasing rents and lease costs)? (possibly offset by reduced household spending).

(4) People who spend money to add value to their property pay tax on the increased value but can't claim the costs.

I can see some upsides too. It's unavoidable as land can't be moved and people can't do their own valuations. Whoever does the valuations could expect valuation disputes to increase by orders of magnitude, though.

I've run some crude numbers on the extra money that would be spent by a UBI vs current benefits and super expenditure. I've also had a crack at the land tax revenue. Too many assumptions to list and some of them you could drive a bus through but .... it looks like the policy is about break even. 56.5B extra rev and 55.3B extra expenditure.

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#3490097 12-May-2026 11:18

GV27:

sen8or:

How does the tax work for fixed income / retirees who rely on super and can't afford this new tax? Will the Govt end up owning their property through unpaid taxes?

From memory this was the response, you would have the option defer payments until you die and then it gets collected from the state.

I would have suggested that if your tax requires the State to become a de facto reverse mortgage provider then perhaps your tax just isn't as smart as you think it is.

This is where it always gets stuck, and nothing ever changes, and so income tax keeps going up and up and up requiring people who earn their income through wages to keep shouldering an ever increasing piece of the tax pie while people who earn their income passively pay less and less. There are always going to be people who are better off and people who are worse off. To fix the worst of the issues caused by the little old lady who has nothing but her house problem you can introduce a limited exception to say that it does not apply to current retirees with no other assets, but that it will apply to those who retire in (say) 15 years from now, which is enough time to diversify your investments.

The country can't keep this up, just fiddling around the edges while we continue to be a housing market with an economy tacked on.

It also can't keep on just cutting services more and more (while, I might add, not actually saving much if any money while doing so) because they're already on the verge of functional collapse as it is.

So if you don't like the idea of a land tax, that's fine - what's your solution? 'Cause I may be a leftie but I sure as hell don't want my income taxes going up another bajillion dollars either.

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#3490111 12-May-2026 12:18

SaltyNZ:

This is where it always gets stuck, and nothing ever changes, and so income tax keeps going up and up and up requiring people who earn their income through wages to keep shouldering an ever increasing piece of the tax pie while people who earn their income passively pay less and less. There are always going to be people who are better off and people who are worse off. To fix the worst of the issues caused by the little old lady who has nothing but her house problem you can introduce a limited exception to say that it does not apply to current retirees with no other assets, but that it will apply to those who retire in (say) 15 years from now, which is enough time to diversify your investments.

The country can't keep this up, just fiddling around the edges while we continue to be a housing market with an economy tacked on.

It also can't keep on just cutting services more and more (while, I might add, not actually saving much if any money while doing so) because they're already on the verge of functional collapse as it is.

So if you don't like the idea of a land tax, that's fine - what's your solution? 'Cause I may be a leftie but I sure as hell don't want my income taxes going up another bajillion dollars either.

If there was a simple solution, I'd assume it would have been found and implemented by now.

We need more high value exports, adding value to our raw materials in NZ before shipping, not letting another country add value then we import it back again.

We need a competitive advantage in the export world. Its unlikely to be tech based as there are nations that are decades more advanced than us (in terms of infrastructure & capacity, not necessarily ability), but as a primary goods exporter, competing in the world stage, in most cases we are a price taker, not a price maker and will always be limited in our earning ability.

We need a long term unified plan for core Govt functions - health, education, defense, transport. The constant undoing / redoing of what the last lot did is a giant waste of money.

Its all simple stuff, but has complicated challenges when it comes to practical solutions.

Agree that we can't keep making the same people simply pay more, but even as a right of center supporter, we can't keep cutting things either.

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#3490113 12-May-2026 12:30

sen8or:

Agree that we can't keep making the same people simply pay more, but even as a right of center supporter, we can't keep cutting things either.

This is something we have a lot of visibility and arguments over when it comes to super and the rich, but not a lot of visibility over when it comes to the rest of the working age population. I suspect it's to do with the following;

1) Constantly changing treatment of sickness beneficiaries (e.g. sickness or job-seeker but exempt from criteria, etc) makes long-term analysis challenging (particularly given the emergence of mental health concerns in recent decades, as well as middle-class burnout).

2) WFF is a wage subsidy scheme, first and foremost and has created a blackhole where many people need to take out more than they'll ever pay in to survive.

3) The perverse effect of the accomodation supplement on rents in the private rental market (and flow-on effects from it on the wider housing market).

4) The costs involved in returning to work after having kids (e.g. private daycare, commuting times etc) mean working parents either have to take part-time jobs or simply don't return to work at all.

5) We aren't supplying bigger family homes into the market at a price working families can afford to buy. People either have fewer kids, or have the same number of kids anyway and we just end up with worse outcomes. It seems an idealised form urban environment has become prioritised over the people who actually live in it and what they might actually need.

6) Reflexive position-taking where talking about people out of work becomes 'benefit bashing' vs. lazy parasites etc, which makes getting rational debate from even major parties is borderline impossible.

The reality is we can't make productive gains if we have people out of work to the scale we do now, and we can't get people out of work if all they'll get out of it is more costs and a worse lifestyle. It's a pretty crappy deal and I can't blame them for acting rationally when faced with that kind of choice.

Ironically the more productive we are and the more people we have working, the more immune we'll be to outside shocks and the government would be in a better position to offer more tangible support and services.

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#3490123 12-May-2026 13:19

sen8or:

Agree that we can't keep making the same people simply pay more, but even as a right of center supporter, we can't keep cutting things either.

True. But land tax would make the same people pay more. Just in a different way and make some other people pay too.

Specifically regarding super annuitants; TOP have said they'll be no worse off. Maybe they will be if they have a valuable section land and limited income. Which I guess will force people to sell.

There is a fundamental problem IMO that there isn't enough cash in the NZ economy. A lot of wealth is property, which isn't cash. We can impose all the additional taxes we want, but that doesn't change how much cash is moving in the economy. What we need is to bring in cash from overseas without adding debt or selling important assets, like land. Services, tech, creatives, exports, tourism ....

Mike

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#3490134 12-May-2026 14:24

sen8or:

If there was a simple solution, I'd assume it would have been found and implemented by now.

Oh yeah, there's definitely no simple solution!

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#3490137 12-May-2026 14:39

SaltyNZ:

Oh yeah, there's definitely no simple solution!

I feel like I'd feel a lot better if we started with a firm commitment and long-term plan for Pharmac from all parties concerned.

It is the best money we spend on anything and it costs us a fraction of the value and actual quality of life improvements we get for it.

Ditto ACC. Both have flaws but we are infinitely better off having them vs. the prospect of not having either.

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