Here we go again - 2026 Iran Attacks

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SaltyNZ

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#3480709 14-Apr-2026 08:00

There is no way to meaningfully reform the Security Council. None of the big five will agree to any version of the Security Council where they don't have a veto. Simple as that. The Security Council is a failure by design. But by at least bringing them to the table, it's slightly better than a Security Council where they simply refuse to participate at all.

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ezbee

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#3480806 14-Apr-2026 17:47

If you wanted proof that markets are irrational and just a betting pool.

No wonder Trump and friends feel they are winning cashing in on jerking the market at will.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/apr/14/middle-east-crisis-live-hezbollah-urges-lebanon-to-pull-out-of-talks-with-israel-blockade-of-strait-of-hormuz-begins

""
Oil prices plunged and stocks rose on Tuesday on hopes for a deal to end the war, with Donald Trump saying Tehran had called to seek an agreement, even as the US blockade of Iranian ports came into force.

While the weekend peace talks in Pakistan ended with no breakthrough, investors took heart from the two sides finding some areas of agreement, with the Islamic republic saying they had been “inches away” at one point, AFP reports.
""

We know that Trump lies all day every day about people phoning him desperate for a deal.
We know Iran's agreement inches away is just, if USA drops all its red lines.
Escalation is more likely, and low single digits of tankers going through which might reduce to zero.

Yet market rallies on?

Adam Smith yelling from his grave.

roobarb

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#3481144 15-Apr-2026 18:48

SaltyNZ:

There is no way to meaningfully reform the Security Council.

Yes and.

I understand that unilateral trade sanctions exist in a grey area, for example US blockade of Cuba, lets work with what we have.

Say a vote goes to the 15 members that says that Israel, USA and Iran have to immediately cease and withdraw. That then goes to a vote and (say) 3 permanent members veto it but the remainder voted for it.

You could still claim that the vote achieved a moral majority and that each country could encourage other countries to join them and implement sanctions against those three countries until they complied.

You could not have written this into a film, the US now in a spat with the pope about the message of Jesus, even including JD Vance whose religious status is Confirmed Hypocrite.

gzt

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#3481562 17-Apr-2026 13:18

It appears Trump has agreed there will be a ceasefire in Lebanon and has told Netanyahu to agree:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8x7w1w9gd2o

Netanyahu while agreeing did not fully accept the terms and stated the IDF will maintain a 10km deep "security zone" in the country of Lebanon with Netanyahu saying "We are there, and we are not leaving."

Whatever other problems there are it appears that Trump has been forced to accept that instability is a result of regional issues and those regional issues need to be part of a comprehensive peaceful solution.

and/or, as in the past, Trump may be playing for more time for acts of war.

roobarb

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#3481632 17-Apr-2026 15:55

gzt:
Whatever other problems there are it appears that Trump has been forced to accept that instability is a result of regional issues and those regional issues need to be part of a comprehensive peaceful solution.

Unfortunately this administration is fundamentally incapable and disinterested in learning anything about the middle east except in terms of what can they bomb.

Apparently it took two years to negotiate previous the deal with Iran that Trump simply tore up.

The breathless reporting from the media called JD Vance's 21 hour attempt a "marathon" effort. The only way that would be true is if he happened to eat a Snickers bar during the negotiations.

The reason that Trump continually uses 2 weeks as a deadline or delivery date is because he has no concept of the future, for him everything is about now. Two weeks is eternity with that mindset.

SaltyNZ

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#3481658 17-Apr-2026 16:41

US President Donald Trump has just said the war in the Middle East "was perfect" - using the past tense - and that it should "be ending pretty soon”.

F*** off, Trump.

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Handle9

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#3481669 17-Apr-2026 17:47

SaltyNZ:

US President Donald Trump has just said the war in the Middle East "was perfect" - using the past tense - and that it should "be ending pretty soon”.

F*** off, Trump.

If only.

gzt

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#3481693 17-Apr-2026 20:30

roobarb:
gzt:Whatever other problems there are it appears that Trump has been forced to accept that instability is a result of regional issues and those regional issues need to be part of a comprehensive peaceful solution.
Unfortunately this administration is fundamentally incapable and disinterested in learning anything about the middle east except in terms of what can they bomb.

That's an accurate comment. It turns out influence from the Saudi Crown Prince was key:

"A private call between Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman took place the day before the Lebanon ceasefire. Saudi Arabia pushed the US to prioritise securing a ceasefire in Lebanon in order to sustain talks with Iran, as the kingdom shifts to mediation efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, multiple US, western, and Arab officials told Middle East Eye."

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-pressed-us-ceasefire-lebanon-preserve-iran-negotiations-sources-say

SaltyNZ

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#3482025 18-Apr-2026 22:39

Looks like it's closed again.

Iran’s latest message - issued via state media - is that the strait is effectively closed once again because the Americans haven't kept their side of the bargain.

By that, Tehran means the US is still blocking ships going to or from Iranian ports.

The Iranians are now saying we’ll be back to where we were a few days ago, with the strait being under the strict control of the Iranian military.

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roobarb

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#3482043 19-Apr-2026 10:04

It is as if the Americans aren't even thinking one move ahead. They appear to think that every move they do is checkmate then act astonished when Iran responds in a meaningful manner.

I can imagine the situation rooms being run in exactly the same way as his cabinet meetings, where all the attendees fawn over how great Trump is, and when Trump proposes an action nobody dare say a word against him suggesting that Iran might counter that move.

He can't cheat them, he can't threaten them, he can't browbeat them, he can't bribe them, he can't outlast them in the courts, he can't drop a golf ball down his trouser leg, he can't impress with his wealth. He finally has an adversary who knows that he is fundamentally corrupt and dishonest and no deal with him is worth the toilet paper it is written on. He has already murdered half the government during peace talks, the equivalent of machine-gunning the delegation coming forward under a white flag. What more can he do?

Unfortunately there is still much worse he can do and I can't convince myself he won't do them.

SaltyNZ

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#3482068 19-Apr-2026 10:58

I’m not even convinced it’s a case study of “don’t dare”. I think this hand picked clown show actually *believes*.

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