Here we go again - 2026 Iran Attacks

To post in this sub-forum you must have made 100 posts or have Trust status or have completed our ID Verification

Forums › Politics › Here we go again - 2026 Iran Attacks

1 | ... | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41

9730 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 15890

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3486908 3-May-2026 08:58

The NY Times - Opinion - Trump Is the One Without the Cards at the Poker Table (unlocked link)

01 May 2026

Trump is betting that by blockading Iran to prevent it from exporting its oil, he can force Tehran to negotiate on his terms. ...

Meanwhile, Iran is betting that by choking off the Strait of Hormuz - and driving up gasoline and food prices for Americans and all their allies - it can force Trump to eventually act in accord with his TACO label: Trump always chickens out.

This is painful to watch. Trump and Tehran are each saying: “I will hold my breath until you turn blue.” We’ll see who gasps first. ...

Iran is to Trump what Ukraine is to Vladimir Putin, [and] what Hamas and Hezbollah have been to Benjamin Netanyahu

Sideface

kingdragonfly

12113 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 13093

Subscriber

#3486965 3-May-2026 10:14

Sideface:
The Washington Post - Poll: Trump’s Iran war reaches Iraq- and Vietnam-era disapproval levels

For Americans, number 1 reason: gasoline prices

Number 2: grocery prices

Distant number 3: draft and soldiers returning home in a coffin

Sitting-at-the-moon distance: effects on anywhere beside the USA.

kingdragonfly

12113 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 13093

Subscriber

#3486971 3-May-2026 10:38

Long since gone, during the 1979 energy crisis, many U.S. novelty companies printed joke postcards mocking long gas lines and President Jimmy Carter’s energy policies.

Common themes included Carter’s face on a gas gauge, with “Fill ’er up” jokes

and cards where Carter disappears as the tank empties

There were also parody ration cards.

Normally I'd say "The more things changed the more they stay the same" but Trump + Segsworth have put on noise cancelling headphones, pointed turned the guitar amp at the neighbor's open windows, turned the volume up to 11, while grinning maliciously.

Gas Shortages in 1970s America Sparked Mayhem and Forever Changed the Nation: Smithsonian

gzt

19018 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8110

Lifetime subscriber

#3486989 3-May-2026 12:16

Things changed. In the last decade USA achieved oil independence more or less. Most of it is shale oil produced by the relatively new fracking technique. The productive lifetime of shale wells is short. USA total oil output will peak in a few years and then rapidly degrade for that reason.

gzt

19018 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8110

Lifetime subscriber

#3487890 5-May-2026 20:53

There's a few items of politics comment going into the security and supply topic I'm avoiding reply there because it's not usually the best place for politics discussion. Anyway, flashback to last week. Initially I'll reply to just one point:

SaltyNZ: #3485706 30-Apr-2026 08:49: Trump is now saying he's going to keep it closed for months, which will guarantee a final escalation. This is because right now Iran can choke off the oil. But that can only last for a couple of years at the outside because the other Gulf states can work with the Saudis to put pipelines across Saudi Arabia into the Red Sea where it will be much more difficult for Iran to totally close. The Houthis probably still have some capability to harass shipping but the West will work very hard to make sure Iran cannot resupply them. In addition to that, more ships and port facilities can be built in other oil exporting countries to make up for the lowered levels of oil and other products coming out of the Middle East.

So in the medium term we have this shortage crisis, but in the long term the combination of increased sanctions and the loss of a grip on the flow of a significant fraction of global oil would eventually either make the Iranian regime lose to a massive, violent and bloody revolution, or at least ensure Israel can resume bombing you with relative impunity (because the US no longer gives a crap about the potential consequences; you're not hurting them anymore, after all). If you're Iran, you know this.

What then are you going to do in the meantime? You're going to dig out and repair your buried missiles and launchers, and you're going to retrieve your buried uranium and/or process the plutonium from civilian reactor waste to get bomb material, and you're absolutely going to build a bomb. Every country other than North Korea has succeeded on their first try so there is no reason to think Iran can't do it quickly once they have the material in hand. Indeed, that is the very justification that the US and Israel used in launching this war in the first place.

For all we know they already have a tested working warhead suitable for loading onto one of their existing missiles, but minus the core.

So if the US keeps the blockade going then at some point in the next year or so Iran is going to be both ready to go and at breaking point. That's when they go out with a bang and saturate some juicy target within range - you would guess Jerusalem or maybe Tel Aviv but certainly somewhere in Israel, their mortal enemy - with missiles and drones to guarantee that at least one of the nukes gets through the ballistic missile defenses.

If they're not willing to do that, then there's no reason to prolong their pain and they may as well surrender now and hope that the Iranian people execute them mercifully. But nothing about the last 40 years of history suggests that that is the likely outcome, does it?

The requirements are not high tech. Somalia based pirates in years past had no problem self-funding the simple open boats and outboards for their insurance ransom activities. There were claims this activity became an option following the long destruction of local fishing grounds. It requires only a small number of active people for success.

gzt

19018 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8110

Lifetime subscriber

#3487899 5-May-2026 21:28

One from the Trump thread:

tdgeek: #3487139 3-May-2026 18:26: Trump said the war is terminated, but he is prepared to go hard military. The link is gone now, was on Stuff

Irans new 14 point deal includes all US troops leave the region. That tells me that Iran is calling the bluff

Iran's nuclear efforts, others will know more than me, please enlighten me.

They say they want nuclear for power generation. But the 400kg of highly enriched uranium is massively more than is needed for power generation.

If they could agree to no nukes, (would require assessment by IAEA or other authorities) but they can use it for power generation, and they can have their own missiles etc, that could be an option, as long as the "agreement" was with them and the Middle East neighbours. Possibly include EU and UK. "If" that worked, Trump will bail as it doesnt include him winning yet another war. In my mind, and based on that many Middle East countries had a detente relationship with Iran (we dont see eye to eye but lets keep the peace), it seems do-able. But Trump is the thorn in the side.

The reported verified figure for that quantity is 60% enriched. It is not suitable for a bomb. That level 60% is used by USA to generate propeller power in it's nuclear powered submarines. My guess is Iran chose that level for strategic parity at that level and strategic negotiation.

Apple TV

Stream your favourite shows now on Apple TV (affiliate link).

Handsomedan

7878 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 7584

ID Verified

Trusted

Subscriber

#3488022 6-May-2026 11:21

US president Donald Trump says Operation Freedom - guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz - has stopped as the US and Iran try to finalise a deal.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360944966/iran-war

Good news that there's still a pause in hostilities (to a point), but can we just stop with the "We'll bomb you into the ice age" rhetoric when it's obvious that he's not going to commit more war crimes without first getting more allies onside?

Handsome Dan Has Spoken.
Handsome Dan needs to stop adding three dots to every sentence...

Handsome Dan does not currently have a side hustle as the mascot for Yale

*Gladly accepting donations...

gzt

19018 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8110

Lifetime subscriber

#3488028 6-May-2026 11:34

Well that would be great but what Donald Trump usually means in this situation is completely different.

Sideface

9730 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 15890

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3488245 6-May-2026 18:49

The Washington Post - Trump keeps changing his timeline for ending the Iran war

05 May 2026

Sideface

ezbee

2701 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3177

#3488513 7-May-2026 17:22

IRGC has cards, MBS has cards, Trump has cardio.

Saudi Arabia denied US access to airspace, pressured Trump to pause Project Freedom
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/saudi-arabia-denied-us-access-to-airspace-pressured-trump-to-pause-project-freedom/ar-AA22zb1O

""
According to the officials, the US’s allies among the Gulf states were surprised by Trump’s Sunday announcement of Project Freedom, which was launched on Monday.

Saudi Arabian leadership informed the US that it would not allow US military aircraft to fly from the Saudi Prince Sultan Airbase or through Saudi airspace to carry out the effort to escort stranded vessels out of the strait, the report continued.

Trump attempted to resolve the issue with a call to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to no avail, the officials stated. Trump was then forced to halt the effort in order to regain US military access to the strategically critical airspace.
""

Trump & cabinet talk of imagined deadlines, threats and deals to manipulate markets.
While the corner he has painted himself and the world into gets smaller.

gzt

19018 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8110

Lifetime subscriber

#3488528 7-May-2026 19:50

The US-Israel war led to the destruction of significant productive capacity in Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE. Saudi at least does not want to see another round of that according to the above.

USA oil is mostly expensive to extract. A high price is needed to attract the investment capital for additional extraction. The price is high now. Trump will be very popular with those new oil guys. The old oil guys also could not be happier. Trump is all for USA oil.

There remains huge risk of further instability in the region spreading from the gulf even further into the horn of Africa which will benefit no one who lives in the region.

Quic Broadband

Move to New Zealand's best fibre broadband service (affiliate link). Free setup code: R587125ERQ6VE. Note that to use Quic Broadband you must be comfortable with configuring your own router.

Tinkerisk

4914 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3832

#3489961 11-May-2026 18:39

"War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength." — „1984“ by George Orwell

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet. - He who knows nothing must believe everything.
Firewalls do NOT stop dragons. Really not!
I avoid Big Tech. They try hard to dictate technology and „culture“ across borders.
In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who „someone“ is.

kingdragonfly

12113 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 13093

Subscriber

#3490957 14-May-2026 17:42

Weird effect on food packaging.

Japanese chip bags are now black-and-white as Iran war disrupts ink supply

alexx

872 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 300

Lifetime subscriber

#3491239 15-May-2026 14:48

gzt: The reported verified figure for that quantity is 60% enriched. It is not suitable for a bomb. That level 60% is used by USA to generate propeller power in it's nuclear powered submarines. My guess is Iran chose that level for strategic parity at that level and strategic negotiation.

You are right that 60% enriched uranium is not suitable for a bomb. Regarding the submarines, there are several sources that show the US submarines using 97% enriched uranium in their submarines (97.3% in some sources). This includes some UK submarines with US sourced reactors and would include the new Australian nuclear-powered submarines that are planned under the AUKUS agreement, if those are ever delivered.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep08077.8.pdf

From my understanding, some former Soviet/Russian ice breakers have used 60% (and higher) enriched uranium. I'm not suggesting that Iran is planning to build ice breakers, but the 60% figure allows them to test their enrichment capabilities, while claiming that there is no evidence of a nuclear weapons enrichment program.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

tdgeek

30088 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9526

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3491240 15-May-2026 14:55

IIRC going from 60% to nuke % i.e. over 90% isn't that hard, months if I recall

1 | ... | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41