Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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Forums › Politics › Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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#3190150 4-Feb-2024 08:54

ockel:

The same Treasury that failed to call the last budget expansionary, that failed to see increased debt as a problem, suddenly calls for macro and fiscal restraint and sees ballooning debt as a problem. The only thing that has changed is the boss.

McLeish needs to resign. Advice to the Ministers has been woeful and inadequate. Almost politically tainted.

They were calling out Labour's plan's for transport projects as being unfunded and essentially unrealistic:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/as-labour-attacked-national-for-unfunded-transport-plan-treasury-warned-labours-was-unfunded-undeliverable-and-risked-credibility-and-wold-increase-emissions/LIOIKI6CMNEBXCIW3CAITN3MLM/

“Without substantial increases in capacity and capability, the Government would struggle to deliver these investments on time and within budget,” officials said.

The paper concluded saying officials did not see the “current list of proposed investments as a realistic level of ambition”.

This was all while Labour was trying to tell us National had gone ballistic with transport spending and it wasn't affordable. So they do have some track record of prevailing sanity, there was definitely a culture of just ignoring the bits they didn't like with the previous Government (Phil Twyford's infamous 'kids in Treasury comment' also worthy of note).

quickymart

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#3190151 4-Feb-2024 09:03

SaltyNZ:

And in a rare misstep for Simeon Brown

That's okay, I'm sure he'll announce another road he's planning to build soon to keep the base (only) happy.

GV27

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#3190154 4-Feb-2024 09:12

SaltyNZ:

And in a rare misstep for Simeon Brown, MBIE also warns that un-banning oil and gas exploration is unlikely to fix anything (oh, and also our major trading partners expect us to be moving in the right direction if we wish to continue selling stuff to them). And that a major problem we actually have with energy uncertainty is the dry year issue, which the Lake Onslow project they cancelled was designed to address. And that the GIDI fund they took all the money from in order to give taxcuts to landlords was designed to address the difficulty in moving from fossil fuels with an uncertain but worsening future to clean energy.

The Lake Onslow project was hideously expensive and would have likely cost far more than the already $15b expected. Right outcome but way too expensive for a small country. From memory there was also some unresolved questions about transmission and the costs of upgrading the network, which is already a known issue.

quickymart

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#3190155 4-Feb-2024 09:14

Speaking of transport: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/508337/temporary-interislander-ferry-terminal-may-become-permanent

Can someone please refresh me on why this was cancelled again? It's not exactly like they can build a bridge between the islands to bypass the ferry.

GV27

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#3190231 4-Feb-2024 11:03

quickymart:

Speaking of transport: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/508337/temporary-interislander-ferry-terminal-may-become-permanent

Can someone please refresh me on why this was cancelled again? It's not exactly like they can build a bridge between the islands to bypass the ferry.

Because Kiwirail kept coming back with updated costings and asking for more money each time. At some point it becomes a question of whether they actually have a grasp on what they're proposing.

It started at $775m in 2018. Between October 2022 the worst case scenario went from $1.7b (worst case scenario, supposedly) to $2.6b in September 2023 - and somehow it went from $2.6b to $3b from early November to late November of 2023. $400m in a month; over 50% of the intial project cost in less than 30 days.

The actual cost of the ferries was only $500m. So that blowout is mostly concentrated on the portside infrastructure. At what point do you say 'enough'?

Source:

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2023-12/Project%20iRex%20timeline.pdf

The need itself, however legitimate, should not excuse this kind of thing. That it was allowed to get to this point shows how trivial the previous government considered the limited ability of taxpayers to fund endless black holes of expenditure while project costs spiral out of control.

michaelmurfy

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#3190248 4-Feb-2024 11:45

Cancelling this, despite the “blowout” was one of the most idiotic things they’ve done IMHO. Some work has already been started in Picton and this wasn’t just a short term thing, the upgrades benefit well in the future, it was needed. But by cancelling and not either placing an alternative plan in place or really discussing it at all just goes to show how short sighted the govt are.

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GV27

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#3190255 4-Feb-2024 12:02

michaelmurfy:

Cancelling this, despite the “blowout” was one of the most idiotic things they’ve done IMHO. Some work has already been started in Picton and this wasn’t just a short term thing, the upgrades benefit well in the future, it was needed. But by cancelling and not either placing an alternative plan in place or really discussing it at all just goes to show how short sighted the govt are.

It's not 'short-sighted' to question the viability on an infrastructure project that blows out by hundreds of millions of dollars in the space of less than a month.

The need for a project doesn't automatically give you a blank-cheque to repeatedly fumble your estimates and cost of delivery. And it's worth noting the previous government did not fully fund the pre-National government blowout to $2.6b either, they merely committed to funding the project to allow to continue in the medium term.

But sure. If you can just tell me which drugs we shouldn't fund, which schools we shouldn't rebuild and which communities shouldn't get elective surgeries so we can endlessly blow-out projects because apparently the ends justify the means, no matter the cost, then we can get an idea of what the acceptable point of no return is.

Reminder: The entire Pharmac budget is around $1.5b a year. The port infrastructure cost estimates went up by $400m in less than 30 days.

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#3190291 4-Feb-2024 13:57

GV27:

The Lake Onslow project was hideously expensive and would have likely cost far more than the already $15b expected.

Except we don't know that, because they cancelled the engineering study that was intended to figure that out, before it was completed, even though the bulk of the piddling amount of money it cost was already spent, and it was due to report back this year.

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#3190296 4-Feb-2024 14:07

Seems we dont need new ferries or new port infrastructure, what we have will do. Unsure if the new ferries work with existing infrastructure?

No need for future-roofing green energy also.

ockel

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#3190352 4-Feb-2024 15:13

michaelmurfy:
Cancelling this, despite the “blowout” was one of the most idiotic things they’ve done IMHO. Some work has already been started in Picton and this wasn’t just a short term thing, the upgrades benefit well in the future, it was needed. But by cancelling and not either placing an alternative plan in place or really discussing it at all just goes to show how short sighted the govt are.

The need for $2.5bn of infrastructure for new $500m ferries is due to Kiwirail speccing ferries that don't fit.
It wanted RORO rail ferries which every other country is abandoning. The ferries haven't even reached construction phase (due to start thus year) .The board should need to justify why $2.5bn of capital spend is required for a RORO business case and what the payback is in terms of efficiencies cf container handling at Picton and Wellington.

When you give people that grew up playing with trains an ability to spend on their trainsets this is the end outcome.
Meanwhile we have 1 maintenance machine that needs to be deployed around the country to alleviate track issues that create a need to slow the network.

There needs to be clear priorities on capital allocation within the continuously underperforming rail organisation.

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#3190485 4-Feb-2024 17:52

ockel:

When you give people that grew up playing with trains an ability to spend on their trainsets this is the end outcome.

These sort of jibes remind me of the "Len Browns trainset" comments. Funnily enough once the electrification project was complete with new trains the use of the trains exploded. Rail is the only viable way to move large numbers of commuters without gridlock.

The ferry project (and the light rail project) was out of control and was justifiably cancelled. That doesn't make rail projects not worth doing, they need to scoped properly and run competently.

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#3190492 4-Feb-2024 18:51

Handle9:

ockel:

When you give people that grew up playing with trains an ability to spend on their trainsets this is the end outcome.

These sort of jibes remind me of the "Len Browns trainset" comments. Funnily enough once the electrification project was complete with new trains the use of the trains exploded. Rail is the only viable way to move large numbers of commuters without gridlock.

The ferry project (and the light rail project) was out of control and was justifiably cancelled. That doesn't make rail projects not worth doing, they need to scoped properly and run competently.

Agree. Rail and electric rail is the future. Leave the last mile to trucks

quickymart

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#3190526 4-Feb-2024 21:10

GV27:

But sure. If you can just tell me which drugs we shouldn't fund, which schools we shouldn't rebuild and which communities shouldn't get elective surgeries so we can endlessly blow-out projects because apparently the ends justify the means, no matter the cost, then we can get an idea of what the acceptable point of no return is.

I'd rather have all the above as opposed to unnecessary tax cuts for the already rich.

sen8or

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#3190750 5-Feb-2024 08:04

quickymart:

GV27:

But sure. If you can just tell me which drugs we shouldn't fund, which schools we shouldn't rebuild and which communities shouldn't get elective surgeries so we can endlessly blow-out projects because apparently the ends justify the means, no matter the cost, then we can get an idea of what the acceptable point of no return is.

I'd rather have all the above as opposed to unnecessary tax cuts for the already rich.

Given the new minimum wage is now entering the 30c tax bracket, the "tax cuts for the already rich" jibe no longer holds water

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#3190761 5-Feb-2024 08:46

"Let's tax more the ones that earns the least, then we can say they are getting a tax cut too."

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