Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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Forums › Politics › Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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#3191263 5-Feb-2024 21:10

SaltyNZ:

GV27:

A CGT won't shift the dial if we add 200,000 people every year.

"We shouldn't change anything until we can devise a silver bullet".

I believe both @GV27, and myself, said a CGT would be a good thing.

It's a fallacy to suggest it'll make a big difference to house prices, but as we have both said that doesn't mean that it's a bad thing to do.

Handle9

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#3191268 5-Feb-2024 21:33

tdgeek:

Handle9:

I can't see any point in responding to your silly post.

So why did you? Its fine being Mr Negative, if you have something to offer, offer it. But as many of us know, its all about finding something to disagree with. Its an adult forum, often no one is right and noone is wrong , bias is there for everyone. But a discussion benefits everyone. If its just about its scoring, take up darts.

I'm happy to discuss topics. I'm not going to waste my time responding to made up statements. You are creating strawman arguments.

If you can show me where I said a lack of a CGT improved house prices or was bad for Australia then I'll bother to respond.

tdgeek

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#3191269 5-Feb-2024 21:38

Handle9:

I'm happy to discuss topics. I'm not going to waste my time responding to made up statements. You are creating strawman arguments.

If you can show me where I said a lack of a CGT improved house prices or was bad for Australia then I'll bother to respond.

You didnt. Im unsure where the fallacy that CGT will solve house prices came from. If I said that or alluded to that, say so, I am also happy to discuss topics

If I "made up" topics, advise that also.

Handle9

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#3191271 5-Feb-2024 21:44

This is a strawman. I didn't say what you are claiming.

tdgeek:

So by your dumb equation, CGT causes or to your benefit, is a solid cause of house price inflation. There’s a CGT in most countries and most developed countries have significant, and growing, house price inflation.

So lets not have CGT so we can enjoy the insignificant and low house price inflation that we have in NZ.

This is a strawman. I never said a CGT was bad for Australia.

tdgeek:

Advise us on why CGT has been bad for AUS.

tdgeek

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#3191272 5-Feb-2024 21:50

Handle9:

There’s a CGT in most countries and most developed countries have significant, and growing, house price inflation.

You are aligning CGT and global house prices. If you are not aligning these two metrics, why mention them in one sentence? And to start this all off, who stated/inferred that there is a relationship between CGT and house prices?

Handle9

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#3191273 5-Feb-2024 21:53

tdgeek:

And to start this all off, who stated/inferred that there is a relationship between CGT and house prices?

You did.

I said: It’s a fallacy that a capital gains tax will result in affordable housing. It won’t. It hasn’t in other countries. It won’t in New Zealand.

Not really a fallacy. If you want to decide on a regulated supply and demand, it will help, it will decrease demand.

Handle9

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#3191274 5-Feb-2024 22:02

tdgeek:

Handle9:

There’s a CGT in most countries and most developed countries have significant, and growing, house price inflation.

You are aligning CGT and global house prices. If you are not aligning these two metrics, why mention them in one sentence?

No I am not aligning them. I said that a CGT doesn't make a signficant difference to house prices.

To repeat what I said originally:

It’s a fallacy that a capital gains tax will result in affordable housing. It won’t. It hasn’t in other countries. It won’t in New Zealand.

At no point did I say there was a correlation between house prices and a CGT. I said it doesn't make a big difference.

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michaelmurfy

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#3191330 5-Feb-2024 22:42

So it turns out that Luxon's Waitangi Day speech was very, very similar to last years speech with the same intro and basically the same content. Still reading from cards each time (you'd think as he had a year to prepare he'd be able to nail this by now). Somebody on Twitter combined the two already (here) but -

Christopher Luxon doing his speech 05 Feb 2023 version starts at the 1 hr 9 min mark:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=SZB3rnWD448&t=4245s

The 05 Feb 2024 version starts at the 2 hr 46 min mark:
https://www.youtube.com/live/l3nVb8_py5E&t=10043

Also: https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/05-02-2024/christopher-luxons-waitangi-speech-was-so-boring-it-became-insulting

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tdgeek

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#3191351 6-Feb-2024 07:32

Handle9:

tdgeek:

And to start this all off, who stated/inferred that there is a relationship between CGT and house prices?

You did.

I said: It’s a fallacy that a capital gains tax will result in affordable housing. It won’t. It hasn’t in other countries. It won’t in New Zealand.

Not really a fallacy. If you want to decide on a regulated supply and demand, it will help, it will decrease demand.

It will help, is not a relationship between CGT and affordable housing. While we cannot build 100,000 houses in 10 years, there are many tools that can be used to favour builds over recycling the same houses, CGT can be used as one tool. Interest rates that favour new builds over recycling properties is another. One tool that doesnt work is the public adding to the housing stock. IIRC they build around 40,000 homes per year? maybe a tad more, but thats because some want to, most dont or cannot, so you need tools to skew towards builds.

For example, you can artificially skew interest rates that favour builds, offset by higher rates for recycling. You could add CGT so that recycling pays it, there is no bright line. New builds give them a easy brightline. I had my first rental the aged 19 with a friend. Others since. As well as opening my own house. I have never added to housing stock, thats the issue. Make building financially rewarding, it will look after itself.

GV27

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#3191363 6-Feb-2024 08:49

Handle9:

I believe both @GV27, and myself, said a CGT would be a good thing.

It's a fallacy to suggest it'll make a big difference to house prices, but as we have both said that doesn't mean that it's a bad thing to do.

Yep. People get sucked into silver bullet fallacies. There's no single solution, but a single thing like 200K+ people year on year can make a problem much much worse.

The reality is the mechanisms of a CGT have been poorly articulated and thought-out, especially when it comes to Kiwisaver. I note previously there had been claims that it would affect ordinary people, but the reality is it would have impacted everyone with a Kiwisaver.

mudguard

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#3191366 6-Feb-2024 09:20

CGT affecting those with Kiwisaver. I think the only thing a CGT might do is slow the increasing of prices. Not pull them back

ezbee

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#3191413 6-Feb-2024 13:47

I assume.
CGT is mainly pushed by Treasury as it gets at some of the ways that wealthy can avoid tax and may end up paying less tax than most on wages that don't have capital to do this.

The marginal tax rate would have to scale very high to 'try' to correct the problem that wealthy never pay that top tax rate (Only effectively a percentage) if they structure things properly.
Much of Europe has very high marginal tax rates, and CGT, inheritance taxes etc too as new mechanisms to avoid tax evolve.

Another CGT aim is to channel wealth into 'productive' use rather than being parked in land-banking, housing speculation etc.
Businesses and investments that generate taxable profits and returns, vs capital gain asset farming.

Housing has a list of issues, and above, the encouragement to speculate and park money there is but one.
You have to hit multiple points.
Auckland is a particular disaster, opportunities lost for generation or more for intensification, redevelopment around public transport etc.

quickymart

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#3191519 6-Feb-2024 18:40

michaelmurfy:

So it turns out that Luxon's Waitangi Day speech was very, very similar to last years speech with the same intro and basically the same content. Still reading from cards each time (you'd think as he had a year to prepare he'd be able to nail this by now). Somebody on Twitter combined the two already (here) but -

Christopher Luxon doing his speech 05 Feb 2023 version starts at the 1 hr 9 min mark:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=SZB3rnWD448&t=4245s

The 05 Feb 2024 version starts at the 2 hr 46 min mark:
https://www.youtube.com/live/l3nVb8_py5E&t=10043

Also: https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/05-02-2024/christopher-luxons-waitangi-speech-was-so-boring-it-became-insulting

Picked up by the Herald as well: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/how-similar-are-christopher-luxons-2023-v-2024-waitangi-speeches-sections-copied-word-for-word/XYMSDILLP5DMHDVV6Q7CAIML2U/

tdgeek

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#3191522 6-Feb-2024 19:00

quickymart:

Picked up by the Herald as well: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/how-similar-are-christopher-luxons-2023-v-2024-waitangi-speeches-sections-copied-word-for-word/XYMSDILLP5DMHDVV6Q7CAIML2U/

I have only read a little, but it seems he didn't get booed as his coalition partners did. So instead of portraying the party (parties) he folded. PR wise, well done, but he would have been better to say the Govt line and be scolded, or not, just be true.

gzt

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#3191555 6-Feb-2024 21:19

Luxon did a good job in the circumstances. Luxon's comments today about improving Ngapuhi housing were spot on. I hope he meant it. I think he did. Waitangi next year will be a test of progress.

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