tdgeek:

 

What is the general feel where this will end up? 

 

IMHO this is not just another war, its drawing the line between Putin like figures and the West. Maybe not the West but anyone who isnt an autocrat and dictator who has no interest in the populous they govern. Democracy isnt the issue here, its one man governments who dont govern, they just seek personal gratification. To everyone elses cost. Gone burger.

 

Even ignoring the military and humanitarian situation in Ukraine, significant chunks of the world (in particular the Middle East) are headed for massive unrest because of food and fertilizer insecurity. 2010 saw a small drop in Russian wheat production, leading to the Arab Spring and all the hardship and upheaval that entailed. Now, Russia (world's largest wheat exporter) can't export most of its wheat because no shipping company will insure ships loading from its only warm water port that can handle this - Novorossiysk.

And there's also fertilizer. With Russian natural gas (used to make nitrogen fertilizer) unavailable and an already present worldwide shortage of potash/phosphate, food production worldwide is going to plummet, with costs going through the roof for affluent countries. We're the lucky ones. Poor countries that rely on these fertilizers to make their soils productive (large chunks of Africa, India, China) may well see famine on a truly horrific scale.