New Zealand elections 2020

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#2600016 8-Nov-2020 17:10

Even though she lost, and I would never vote for her myself, I take my hat off to Judith for being gracious in defeat. Trump could learn a thing or two from her.

arcon

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#2601540 11-Nov-2020 09:40

Geoff Simmons quits TOP:

Spinoff: TOP's leader resigns

This actually happened a week ago but I totally missed it lol.

MikeAqua

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#2601570 11-Nov-2020 10:36

arcon:

Geoff Simmons quits TOP:

Spinoff: TOP's leader resigns

This actually happened a week ago but I totally missed it lol.

I've spoken with Geoff on a couple of occasions. Nice guy, obviously very clever. He didn't strike me as a leader or having the steel to be a politician. More of a 'brains behind the throne' type.

Mike

GV27

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#2601933 11-Nov-2020 16:16

Is this the all-purpose politics thread now?

I just want to register my utter contempt at the decision to 'consult on maybe doing something about the LVRs in March. Maybe.'

Can someone point me in the appropriate direction?

Fred99

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#2601961 11-Nov-2020 16:59

GV27:

Is this the all-purpose politics thread now?

I just want to register my utter contempt at the decision to 'consult on maybe doing something about the LVRs in March. Maybe.'

Can someone point me in the appropriate direction?

Yes - to RBNZ, who removed LVR in March intending that to be for one year, but probably didn't expect house prices to surge in the middle of a recession, so probably feel a need to consult with lenders and others to find a solution that gives stability to the banking system without either crashing the housing market or adding fuel to an existing fire.

(Edit - correction - change to LVRs was for a year from May - not March)

I doubt things would be any different regardless of who won the election, RBNZ is supposed to be independent, if and when Govt does intervene, that sends bad signals to the market. Has that happened?

(Edit #2. RNZ comment a few minutes ago, RBNZ forecast at the time was for negative annual house price inflation of 7%, real house price inflation looks like about 9%, RBNZ forecasts therefore out by 16% - ouch)

GV27

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#2602334 12-Nov-2020 06:32

Fred99:

Yes - to RBNZ, who removed LVR in March intending that to be for one year, but probably didn't expect house prices to surge in the middle of a recession, so probably feel a need to consult with lenders and others to find a solution that gives stability to the banking system without either crashing the housing market or adding fuel to an existing fire.

(Edit - correction - change to LVRs was for a year from May - not March)

I doubt things would be any different regardless of who won the election, RBNZ is supposed to be independent, if and when Govt does intervene, that sends bad signals to the market. Has that happened?

(Edit #2. RNZ comment a few minutes ago, RBNZ forecast at the time was for negative annual house price inflation of 7%, real house price inflation looks like about 9%, RBNZ forecasts therefore out by 16% - ouch)

While I agree these things take time, this was floated as a logical consequence of lifting the LVRs in the first place, yet they were lifted suddenly and without much consultation.

Here are living with those same consequences, an already insane housing market boiling over, and the reversal takes at least six months.

I'm reminded of the talk about DTIs, which went on for years and in the end was just that: talk. Fortunately I bought a year and a bit ago but at some point I will need to swap three bedrooms for four, but the price of taking on four bedrooms in Auckland is astronomical and I'd be buying and selling in the same market. The debt is cheaper, but the overall amount is just terrifying. At 2% it's manageable. At 5% it is not. And I fail to see how this is in the interests of the country's financial stability, which falls squarely in the RBNZ's corner.

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Fred99

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#2602406 12-Nov-2020 09:17

RBNZ isn't tasked to particularly care about the housing market WRT "affordability". Their reaction was because of concern about the deflationary impact of a projected fall in house prices - not the actual projected fall in house prices. If house prices fell 20%, the only things that would concern them is the impact of bad (negative equity) loans on the stability of the banking sector, and the reduction in "perceived wealth" by house owners which would have a deflationary impact as people would stop spending money.

There were simultaneous forecasts that unemployment would hit ~10%. It never happened (yet - maybe).

That they did what they did seems to signal that's what they'll always do, thus that boosts confidence by people buying homes as investments that "you can't ever lose" - you'll always be buffered from economic "shocks".

That's something which will come back to haunt central banks over the next decade, in my opinion.

arcon

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#2602417 12-Nov-2020 09:27

MikeAqua:

I've spoken with Geoff on a couple of occasions. Nice guy, obviously very clever. He didn't strike me as a leader or having the steel to be a politician. More of a 'brains behind the throne' type.

Yeah I actually liked his personality a lot compared to other leaders lol.

But TOP has an ingrained cultural ego flaw in the party and followers that will keep them in the 2% club forever. After a time in their members facebook page & watching them campaign page it starts to become apparent. They campaign wastefully as if they're a major party... not seeming to realize they don't have an established brand & aren't willing to take more targeted risk to get noticed. A thread received huge praise for claiming TOP is the party that "doesn't need celebrity endorsements". ??? Like that wouldn't be single the biggest game changer for them. A bizarre and insufferably arrogant mentality tbh.

GV27

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#2602544 12-Nov-2020 11:41

arcon:

Like that wouldn't be single the biggest game changer for them. A bizarre and insufferably arrogant mentality tbh.

Classic economist thinking - I have the answer, it does not matter that it is complex and unwieldy and impractical and no one will want it, but I know it is the answer. As a result, I will not try to convince anyone who disagrees with me or entertain arguments as to why it is too complex, unwieldy or impractical or why no one wants. That's their problem.

Fine when your job is to crank out business case studies on infrastructure that only exists on paper as a means to generate business case studies, but not such a vote winner in politics where pragmatism and being able to sell something counts as much, if not more than anything else.

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#2606862 19-Nov-2020 12:06

This will no doubt annoy those who can't abide the thought that Jacinda Ardern may be an outstanding leader.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

MikeAqua

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#2606973 19-Nov-2020 13:59

The pressure is coming on Ardern over house pricing. Live by the sword ...

Ardern in opposition:-

Criticised sale of state houses

Criticised use of motels as emergency housing

Said RMA didn't need reforming to address supply side of housing

Promised to get housing market under control

Ardern in govt:

Sold state houses

Continued to use motels as emergency accommodation

After a term announced RMA need reform to address supply side, as if that was a new idea.

Housing prices still growing faster than ever.

I'm personally quite grateful for Labour's 'management' of housing. It has substantially increased our net worth.

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GV27

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#2606984 19-Nov-2020 14:35

MikeAqua:

I'm personally quite grateful for Labour's 'management' of housing. It has substantially increased our net worth.

Unless you are downsizing or fleeing to the regions, it's all illusory. I could buy a house with another bedroom but if I'm buying and selling in the same market, the gain I've made on my current place nowhere near makes up for the extra debt I have to take on to get a bigger family home.

Rikkitic

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#2608600 22-Nov-2020 18:06

More misleading campaign ads from National. They are in good company. Complaints were also upheld over ads by Billy Te Kahika and Jami-Lee Ross’s Advance NZ party and the Social Credit Party.

If National has so few policies to campaign on that they have to resort to deception to attract voters, maybe they shouldn't bother at all. Who wants to vote for a party that lies to people? We might as well be in the USA.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

quickymart

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#2608632 22-Nov-2020 19:42

20,000-something voted for Billy Te Kahika's party though, which is a fairly sizeable number for a new party.

Rikkitic

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#2608828 23-Nov-2020 09:54

"I have to say, I've been called many things. Tyrant isn't one I've heard before." - Jacinda Ardern, responding to Peter Goodfellow.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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