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SaltyNZ

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#204405 30-Sep-2016 08:10
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Today's soapbox topic: First Past the Post elections. No doubt you've all at least looked at your electoral papers by now and for those of you in Auckland you'll know that the Mayoral election is FPP. There are only three, maybe four serious contenders for the job - almost certainly one of Phil Goff, Vic Crone or John Palino will be our next mayor.

 

Everybody acknowledges we have a housing crisis in Auckland. One which is beginning to spill over into the rest of the country, I might add. This crisis is OK for me. It's OK for my friends. We had the business foresight to be born in 1975 instead of 1995. We bought our properties at more-or-less reasonable prices with sustainable mortgages. Even those who nominally paid $1M for their current property are OK because they flipped from one house to another so their mortgages stayed roughly the same.

 

But it is the young people are being shafted. I look at my own kids and I don't see them ever being able to find a place of their own. Unless something changes in a big way, they're going to spend a great part of their adult lives living in my house, or in the house of their partner's parents, probably raising their own kids there, because they just won't be able to afford not to.

 

It is the political old guard who are responsible for facilitating this mess. Yes, investors are partially responsible too, but they are reacting to the political and legal environment which makes property speculation the apparently most rational way to invest. Limited new land for development, density restrictions, approving terrible Soviet-prison-inspired concrete boxes when they are allowed to instensify, red tape, practically no tax on investment earnings. You can't really blame people for acting rationally and snapping up whatever investment houses they can get their hands on.

 

And here is why I think the FPP system should be scrapped in favour of a preferential electoral system. I would have voted for Chloe Swarbrick. Her generation are the ones that are hit by the issue; they should have a chance to do something about it. Sure, I doubt she has all the answers, or even any of the answers - but do any of the others? Even if they do, they're certainly not actually doing anything about it.

 

But she isn't going to win. If you vote for her, your vote achieves nothing. So instead, you hold your nose and choose whether you want to vote for a) career politician, b) ex-CEO rich white lady or c) ex-CEO rich white man with lingering stench of fomented political scandal. I don't really want to get into a discussion of which of the three is the least worst so I won't say which one I chose.

 

All I want to point out is that the other candidates are going to get fewer - possibly far fewer - votes than they should have, because FPP discourages voting for anyone who isn't clearly already a high chance of winning. That means we not only miss the opportunity to get someone new (and who, let's face it, can't be worse than what we've got) but even the opportunity to simply show our displeasure with the old guard by putting them down as no. 2.

 

FPP: has to go!





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richms
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  #1643100 30-Sep-2016 08:31
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Or you could have voted for her anyway since whichever of the other 3 may get in makes no difference virtually.

 

Its not like last time where there was a Len which was clearly the bad option vs the others, which FPP was probably responsible for getting him back.





Richard rich.ms



dclegg
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  #1643119 30-Sep-2016 09:10
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We really all should pay closer attention to the Simpsons. They predicted this would happen.

 


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  #1643124 30-Sep-2016 09:25
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SaltyNZ:

 

FPP: has to go!

 

 

Talk to you local council, or get 5% of ratepayers to demand a poll,

 

Under the 2001 Local electoral Act, any council can choose to change its own , and voters can demand a poll on it,

 

27 Local authority may resolve to change electoral systems

 

(1)Any local authority may, not later than 12 September in the year that is 2 years before the year in which the next triennial general election is to be held, resolve that the next 2 triennial general elections of the local authority and its local boards or community boards (if any), and any associated election, will be held using a specified electoral system other than that used for the previous triennial general election.

 

29 Electors may demand poll

 

Wellington's city council has been STV for the Wellgton regional council went STV in 2013




Linuxluver
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  #1643130 30-Sep-2016 09:41
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SaltyNZ:

 

Today's soapbox topic: First Past the Post elections. No doubt you've all at least looked at your electoral papers by now and for those of you in Auckland you'll know that the Mayoral election is FPP. There are only three, maybe four serious contenders for the job - almost certainly one of Phil Goff, Vic Crone or John Palino will be our next mayor.

 

Everybody acknowledges we have a housing crisis in Auckland. One which is beginning to spill over into the rest of the country, I might add. This crisis is OK for me. It's OK for my friends. We had the business foresight to be born in 1975 instead of 1995. We bought our properties at more-or-less reasonable prices with sustainable mortgages. Even those who nominally paid $1M for their current property are OK because they flipped from one house to another so their mortgages stayed roughly the same.

 

But it is the young people are being shafted. I look at my own kids and I don't see them ever being able to find a place of their own. Unless something changes in a big way, they're going to spend a great part of their adult lives living in my house, or in the house of their partner's parents, probably raising their own kids there, because they just won't be able to afford not to.

 

It is the political old guard who are responsible for facilitating this mess. Yes, investors are partially responsible too, but they are reacting to the political and legal environment which makes property speculation the apparently most rational way to invest. Limited new land for development, density restrictions, approving terrible Soviet-prison-inspired concrete boxes when they are allowed to instensify, red tape, practically no tax on investment earnings. You can't really blame people for acting rationally and snapping up whatever investment houses they can get their hands on.

 

And here is why I think the FPP system should be scrapped in favour of a preferential electoral system. I would have voted for Chloe Swarbrick. Her generation are the ones that are hit by the issue; they should have a chance to do something about it. Sure, I doubt she has all the answers, or even any of the answers - but do any of the others? Even if they do, they're certainly not actually doing anything about it.

 

But she isn't going to win. If you vote for her, your vote achieves nothing. So instead, you hold your nose and choose whether you want to vote for a) career politician, b) ex-CEO rich white lady or c) ex-CEO rich white man with lingering stench of fomented political scandal. I don't really want to get into a discussion of which of the three is the least worst so I won't say which one I chose.

 

All I want to point out is that the other candidates are going to get fewer - possibly far fewer - votes than they should have, because FPP discourages voting for anyone who isn't clearly already a high chance of winning. That means we not only miss the opportunity to get someone new (and who, let's face it, can't be worse than what we've got) but even the opportunity to simply show our displeasure with the old guard by putting them down as no. 2.

 

FPP: has to go!

 



Agreed. The Local Government election law allows for Councils to be elected by STV (Single Transferrable Vote). It's a multi-member preferential system for electing Councilors in wards and / or a preferential way to elect a person to a single office, like Mayor. Wellington, Kapiti and Dunedin use it already. In Auckland we use it to elect the DHB.

There are 3 ways to get STV: 

1. The Council decides to implement it. 
2. The Council decides to hold a poll to let voters decide. 
3. Voters can gather signatures of more than 5% of electors to cause a poll to be triggered at the next Council elections. The due date is about a year prior to the next election, whenever that is. 

I recommended to the Royal Commission on the Auckland Amalgamation that the Council have at least 35 members and be elected by STV from 5 wards of 7 members each. This would allow to a truly representative result. Representation is what elections are all about, after all. 

But this government doesn't like democracy much and instead preferred to have fewer people on Council than there are MPs in Auckland. The Council is elected by FPP. The result of that has been that the majority of votes cast don't elect anyone at all. That is a absolute disgrace....one National fully intended. In 2013, non one even bothered to stand against the right-wing incumbents in Orakei and Botany....and those three Councillors were installed in office unopposed. FPP made it a pointless waste of time to even bother voting. 

You can see my analysis of the last two FPP local body elections here for 2010 and here for 2013.  In 2010 over 62% of votes elected no one. Two on Council were elected with less than 10% of the votes in their ward. 

(STV was added as an option to elect local bodies thanks to the Greens and primarily deceased former-co-leader, Rod Donald, working with Labour to implement this.)  






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Linuxluver
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  #1643133 30-Sep-2016 09:47
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richms:

 

Or you could have voted for her anyway since whichever of the other 3 may get in makes no difference virtually.

 

Its not like last time where there was a Len which was clearly the bad option vs the others, which FPP was probably responsible for getting him back.

 



Len was clearly the best option...and he still would be today. 

The right wing candidates represent an ideology and an approach that has crippled Auckland for far, FAR too long. 

Vic Crone can't say whether she believes in climate change or not. The last thing Auckland needs is to take a Great Leap Backward by electing the modern version of the McGillicuddy Serious Party: National (or it's local proxies). 



 

 





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trig42
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  #1643138 30-Sep-2016 09:55
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Linuxluver:

 

richms:

 

Or you could have voted for her anyway since whichever of the other 3 may get in makes no difference virtually.

 

Its not like last time where there was a Len which was clearly the bad option vs the others, which FPP was probably responsible for getting him back.

 



Len was clearly the best option...and he still would be today. 

The right wing candidates represent an ideology and an approach that has crippled Auckland for far, FAR too long. 

Vic Crone can't say whether she believes in climate change or not. The last thing Auckland needs is to take a Great Leap Backward by electing the modern version of the McGillicuddy Serious Party: National (or it's local proxies). 
 

 

 

Len would still be the best today, if he hadn't played away from home in his Council office.

 

Although I suspect I'm probably on the other side of the political spectrum to you (@Linuxlover), I will say that Goff is the best choice for Mayor from the current choices available. He can talk to Central Government, and he will get an audience. If Labour and the Greens can pull it together enough by the next election (though, I'm doubting that because I think Little is a buffoon who is only interested in the 'left', not the centre), he will probably then be even more able to negotiate successfully with Government.

 

I have no problem really with FPP for the Mayoral race. If more than 30% of the population actually voted for it, then we could look at STV or something 'better', but this election will be a complete walkover for Goff (IMO).


 
 
 
 

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Geektastic
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  #1643139 30-Sep-2016 09:56
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We had such a variety of voting methods on our papers for the various boards, mayor, council etc that unless you read the form very carefully, you would probably spoil your paper.

 

FPP is at least simple for those short in the IQ department.....






SaltyNZ

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  #1643143 30-Sep-2016 09:59
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wellygary:

 

 

 

27 Local authority may resolve to change electoral systems

 

29 Electors may demand poll

 

 

 

 

Interesting! I did not know that.





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frankv
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  #1643144 30-Sep-2016 10:00
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SaltyNZ:

 

But she isn't going to win. If you vote for her, your vote achieves nothing.

 

 

I disagree... the other candidates (especially career politicians) will change their policies and behaviour if they see a clear swing in one direction or other. This would probably happen before the next election as the incumbent sets out to curry favour with the electorate.

 

 


surfisup1000
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  #1643148 30-Sep-2016 10:01
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SaltyNZ:

 

Today's soapbox topic: First Past the Post elections. No doubt you've all at least looked at your electoral papers by now and for those of you in Auckland you'll know that the Mayoral election is FPP. There are only three, maybe four serious contenders for the job - almost certainly one of Phil Goff, Vic Crone or John Palino will be our next mayor.

 

 

 

 

There is only one serious contender, Phil Goff. 

 

He will win easily. I don't know why the others are bothering, really. 

 

As for housing, I really wish the RB had raised interest rates at the last meeting. 

 

They say financial stability is a factor in setting interest rates, an in my view the higher auckland house prices go, the more risk of a collapse when interest rates rise. 

 

Imagine the number of people out there barely managing as it is...... when interest rates climb back to 7 or 8% or higher, they will be screwed. 

 

 

 

I don't think FPP or otherwise will make any difference either. 

 

 


Linuxluver
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  #1643150 30-Sep-2016 10:02
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SaltyNZ:

 

wellygary:

 

 

 

27 Local authority may resolve to change electoral systems

 

29 Electors may demand poll

 

 

 Interesting! I did not know that.

 



 

You can thank Rod Donald and the Greens for that law change in 2001. 





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SaltyNZ

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  #1643152 30-Sep-2016 10:06
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Linuxluver:

You can see my analysis of the last two FPP local body elections here for 2010 and here for 2013.  In 2010 over 62% of votes elected no one. Two on Council were elected with less than 10% of the votes in their ward. 

 

 

 

 

Wow, that is indeed a failure. I note that several councilors will be acclaimed unopposed again this time, too. Probably the same ones.





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SaltyNZ

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  #1643155 30-Sep-2016 10:08
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frankv:

 

 

 

I disagree... the other candidates (especially career politicians) will change their policies and behaviour if they see a clear swing in one direction or other. This would probably happen before the next election as the incumbent sets out to curry favour with the electorate.

 

 

 

 

I'd like to think so, but it's not as if the issue hasn't already gotten plenty of attention. If they cared about it, they would already have a policy.





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Rikkitic
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  #1643228 30-Sep-2016 11:34
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STV is unquestionably better, but most people don't understand it.

 

 





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  #1643260 30-Sep-2016 12:13
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I can see how STV is helpful for electing multiple people from a single constituency, but I don't see how it helps elect one person from a single ward unless it's close contest.

 

Under STV Goff would still win.  He has (according to polling) over 50% of the votes.

 

In Nelson City Council (small population and geographical area) we have 'FPP' for councillors but you can vote for up to 12 candidates.  I'm secretly hoping the guy who wants abandon money gets in, for entertainment value.





Mike


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