Predicting the future

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neb

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#279907 16-Nov-2020 13:27

I was chatting on the weekend with some friends and we talked about the usual topics, and how whether any of us would be anywhere close to target when we speculated that in X years' time Y would happen. So I thought of the following exercise, writing down predictions for, say, one year and five years, and then checking back then to see how close we were. Thus this thread, first to come up with a list of say a dozen things for people to make predictions over, and then a chance for everyone to post their one-year and five-year predictions. A suggested starting point:

1. US politics

2. Covid19 virus

3. Effects of Covid19 (distinct from the virus itself)

4. The global economy

12. Profit!

Rikkitic

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#2604738 16-Nov-2020 14:09

5. Climate change

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neb

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#2604745 16-Nov-2020 14:21

Rikkitic:
5. Climate change

I left that out because I can't see much changing there, just follow the line on the graph and you'll have the results for one and five years.

Rikkitic

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#2604749 16-Nov-2020 14:26

Arthur C. Clarke once pointed out that short-term predictions are always too optimistic, long-term too pessimistic. At least I think that was what he said.

In one year nothing will change in any meaningful way. In five years there will be gun battles over the remnants of whatever is left.

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MikeAqua

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#2604783 16-Nov-2020 15:01

6. The CCP. A threat to humanity that rivals climate change IMO.

Mike

Fred99

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#2604804 16-Nov-2020 15:36

MikeAqua:

6. The CCP. A threat to humanity that rivals climate change IMO.

They're a threat to "democracy" for sure, but hardly the only one, nor the biggest threat IMO.

From the "believe it or not" department:

With global climate negotiations stalled and this year's conference of the parties (COP26) postponed until 2021, there had been little expectation of progress on the issue at the UN General Assembly.
However China's president surprised the UN gathering by making a bold statement about his country's plans for tackling emissions.
He called on all countries to achieve a green recovery for the world economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
According to the official translation, Mr Xi went on to say:
"We aim to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060."

Jas777

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#2604812 16-Nov-2020 15:49

Not.

Just telling the gullible what they want to hear.

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Fred99

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#2604813 16-Nov-2020 15:50

7) Unregulated capitalism, where oligarchs and global corporate monopolies with unlimited budgets gain further control of the dialogue over serious issues.

8) Religious fundamentalism undermining the rule of law, and causing further destruction of belief in science.

9) Combine 7 and 8 (above), and future life for the "ordinary person" in democratic nations will be rather grim.

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#2604817 16-Nov-2020 15:55

Just a note from some of the suggestions, what I'm after is testable predictions. In particular I'm going to exclude things for which the outlook is "more of the same" because there's not much to predict there, and ones that are vague and mostly going to lead to lots of what Linus famously described as "people w**king around with their opinions" rather than potentially sound predictions about specific issues.

Jas777

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#2604819 16-Nov-2020 15:56

10) Social Media, the unintended consequences of it

Fred99

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#2604835 16-Nov-2020 16:21

Jas777:

10) Social Media, the unintended consequences of it

Yes - but it's already happened.

MikeAqua

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#2604836 16-Nov-2020 16:24

Fred99:

They're a threat to "democracy" for sure, but hardly the only one, nor the biggest threat IMO.

The CCP are also a threat to human rights, global health, global political and economic stability.

They are also building huge amounts of military hardware. Did you see Xi Jingping's recent drive past of assembled military might (1940s autocrat style)?

They also have their military engaged in public displays of silly marching. History suggests that is a bad sign.

Mike

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linw

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#2604840 16-Nov-2020 16:28

At my age, 5 years is too far out!!😒

Rikkitic

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#2605551 17-Nov-2020 15:11

How about this? QAnon will spread internationally and gain respectability. Already happening in Germany. Soon it will be taught as a serious academic subject and not long after will be accepted as a legitimate religion. This is how christianity developed from a cult. Don't say it couldn't happen again.

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neb

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#2606253 18-Nov-2020 15:47

Here's the current list, chosen based on them being testable predictions rather than open to vague ruminations or a trivial "more of the same". The idea is that for each one people make a short - one to two sentence, so a concrete prediction not random thoughts - prediction on where things will be in one and five years' time. In addition, you have a budget of $100 and get to allocate it across your predictions, based on how certain you are of each one. I'll post a final list in a few days in case people have more suggestions:

1. US politics, or the direction of the US in general.

2. Covid19, the virus.

3. Covid19, the effects on the world.

4. The global economy.

5. Unregulated capitalism, effects on the world.

6. Religious fundamentalism, effects on the world.

7. Social media, effects on the world.

8. The global balance of power, e.g the rise of China vs. the US.