I've got surplus income... Do I
a) pay off mortgage quicker
b) invest in property
c) invest elsewhere?
I have super, in my 40's mortgage due to paid off by 50. Have Kiwi saver.....
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Depends on your personal risk tolerance.
For most people the answer would be a) pay off mortgage quicker. Do need to check the terms of your mortgage to see if there are any early repayment fees or the penalties.
Think of paying down debt as a completly risk free investment paying the same rate of interest as your mortgage is charged at. (Say 2.19% fixed 1 year at kiwi-bank).
A 1 year term deposit from kiwi-bank only pays 1.2%, you are doing quite a bit better than just having your money in term depoisits.
Regarding b). It's a highly speculative play.
Rental yields are pretty low these days in much of the country once you account for all the costs, so you are largely betting on a future increase in either rents or house prices in the future to give a decent payback. Could go either way.
On one hand NZ is going to be extremely popular post pandemic, and shipping issues etc are going to put a dampener on the construction sector, meaning tight supply could continue for some time. NZ Economy is hot at the moment, with inflation running high (3.3% most recent number). MP's running the country generally own a lot of houses, so unlikely to pass policy to crash house prices (and would fear crashing the entire economy if they did that.
On the other hand, Current rent levels are already putting pressure on tenant's, and tenant incomes will continue to constrain rents in the mid to long term. Interest rates are currently at record lows, and due to high inflation are tipped to rise. Rising interest rates would put downwards pressure on house prices.
Consider you current house as part of your investment portfolio, and that you (if in Auckland) likely have $1m+ in this asset class. Consider if you risk tolerance supports doubling down on one assets class or diversifying into another assett.
Regarding c). This is completly open. Again depends on your risk tolerance. Of course if we could go back in time we would all be snapping up bitcoin and Tesla shares in 2010.
Over the last 20 years (excl the last two which were a bit messed up by the pandemic) NZX has gone up by on average by about 7%. But you have no idea if 2022 is going to be like 2008 with a 30%+ fall. So comes back to your risk tolerance. You should on average, long term, be able to beat your mortgage rate if you are OK with the risk.
You could also consider doing a review of your household / lifestyle to see if there are areas where spending capital would give a decent payback in ongoing costs?
Do you run plug in electric heaters a lot - Could work out payback on a heatpump.
Do you do a lot of Km in an older, thirstier car? Could a modern more efficient car work out cheaper?
Can you Improve the insulation level in your home, or go all LED for lighting?
Given the low interest rates I suggest investing will give a significantly better return than paying off your mortgage. Some of the more reputable fund managers in NZ are returning 8 - 15% depending on the fund. I would suggest an investment fund rather than Kiwisaver as the returns are about the same and you have access to the money if you need it.
Properly is a bit of a risk at the moment. The government is rightly doing their best to control house prices, which are some of the highest in the world. I expect to see more measures to make houses affordable for more people over the coming years.
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