[TelstraClear] Herald article about broadband usage profile in 5 years

Forums › Vodafone New Zealand (including Vodafone, WxC, Farmside) › [TelstraClear] Herald article about broadband usage profile in 5 years

lchiu7

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#16772 27-Oct-2007 08:41

This article is in the Herald online today

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10472423

Key quote here seems wrong

Currently within five years

* 93 per cent of New Zealanders can get broadband through their phone line, 2 per cent by wireless and the remaining 5 per cent by satellite broadband.

* Average broadband speeds range from 2Mb/s to 3Mb/s depending on how far a customer is located from the local telephone exchange and other variables.

What about the current TCL cable users, today and in the future (assuming TCL doesn't screw it up). We routinely get 10Mbs now with a promise of 25Mbs but this is not mentioned at all. I am sure that the TCL cable users today are more than 1% of broadband users in total.

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tonyhughes

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#92636 27-Oct-2007 10:33

lchiu7: What about the current TCL cable users, today and in the future (assuming TCL doesn't screw it up). We routinely get 10Mbs now with a promise of 25Mbs but this is not mentioned at all. I am sure that the TCL cable users today are more than 1% of broadband users in total.

How many (approx) cable broadband users are there? That will be an easy calculation once we know, but until then, its merely speculation...

AmooMan

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#92644 27-Oct-2007 11:35

lchiu7:
* Average broadband speeds range from 2Mb/s to 3Mb/s depending on how far a customer is located from the local telephone exchange and other variables.

Average Download speed maybe.. !!! maybe !! but not upload..

Havnt seen to many people get more than 800kb/s upload on DSL :P

Thats because you cant...

lchiu7

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#92646 27-Oct-2007 11:38

tonyhughes:
lchiu7: What about the current TCL cable users, today and in the future (assuming TCL doesn't screw it up). We routinely get 10Mbs now with a promise of 25Mbs but this is not mentioned at all. I am sure that the TCL cable users today are more than 1% of broadband users in total.

How many (approx) cable broadband users are there? That will be an easy calculation once we know, but until then, its merely speculation...

I am sure as far as TCL is concerned, not enough :-) If you look at their frontprint in Wellington, Ch Ch and Kapiti, they have way more potential than they are close to realising. Is that a marketing failing?

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Nightwyrm

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#92650 27-Oct-2007 11:49

lchiu7: Key quote here seems wrong

In the Herald? Nah, not possible.

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Crowbar

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#93114 31-Oct-2007 03:18

As far as the herald are concerned Cable doesnt exist, they barely ever speak about it in any of their broadband aritcles and so called 'surveys'.

Its not in Auckland, they don't care. They don't want to make their readers feel like Wellington and Christchurch have something over them.

Hehe, 5 Percent by Satallite, yet '0' percent by Cable :D? GG Herald.

TinyTim

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#93122 31-Oct-2007 08:24

Let me have a go at some of the maths.

According to this TCL media release TCL has (had) 70,000 broadband customers. So if NZ currently has 604k/90% = 671k [short-life Stuff link] broadband customers then that means TCL cable is just over 10%. (Hmm, from the text - Telecom just under 90% and TCL cable just over 10% - doesn't leave much for all other technologies.)

As for what the Herald was talking about - the proportion of New Zealanders that can get broadband by technology - say, Wellington + Kapiti less Porirua (400k?) and half of Christchurch (150k?) can get cable = 1.4% of 4 million total pop. Round down because many within the network boundary can't actually get connected -> 1% say.

Also using those population figures TCL cable would be 13% of Wgtn/Chch population - not far off the national average of 17% all by itself. Impressive.

Bung

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#93125 31-Oct-2007 09:00

TinyTim: Let me have a go at some of the maths.

According to this TCL media release TCL has (had) 70,000 broadband customers.

How many of them are just sitting in front of a TV?

TinyTim

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#93137 31-Oct-2007 13:58

Good point - from what I heard quite a high number of customers don't have broadband (tho that was a while ago). But I assumed from the context they were talking about broadband customers. And the media release talks about 62,000 cable modems so there must be at least that number.

FatTofu

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#93214 31-Oct-2007 21:21

I did this some time ago so the figures could be out and my reasoning wrong but hey, I got a good grade on my assignment! Haha

"In regards to the broadband market the major player is Telecom who holds a monopoly over the national market and is the outright market leader with 61% of the broadband market while Telstraclear has 12% (10layers, 2007), however in the areas where Telstraclear have their own network the market share is more around 42% with houses on their network and 31% for the area*"

"*- Based on a news article on stuff.co.nz saying that there were 70000 households on the cable network. It also stated that 90% of Wellington houses were connected to the network while in Christchurch it was only 65%. Figures from statistics NZ shows occupied dwelling numbers for Wellington is 68901 + 19368 from Kapiti (90% = 79442) and Christchurch 135261 (65% = 87920) therefore combined number of houses on network is 167362."

Yeah it doesn't say how much of this are also broadband connections but it's a rough idea. Rip into if you want just don't be too nasty if I'm way off

Fraktul

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#93215 31-Oct-2007 21:36

AmooMan:
lchiu7:
* Average broadband speeds range from 2Mb/s to 3Mb/s depending on how far a customer is located from the local telephone exchange and other variables.

Average Download speed maybe.. !!! maybe !! but not upload..

Havnt seen to many people get more than 800kb/s upload on DSL :P

Thats because you cant...

Not true, there are several DSL variants which allow you more then 800kbps upstream with suitable line conditions. There are even some Annex's of ADSL variants which allow this.

Currently within five years
* 93 per cent of New Zealanders can get broadband through their phone line, 2 per cent by wireless and the remaining 5 per cent by satellite broadband.
* Average broadband speeds range from 2Mb/s to 3Mb/s depending on how far a customer is located from the local telephone exchange and other variables.

Wonder if they really wanted to use can there, I'm guessing not.

TinyTim

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#93255 1-Nov-2007 07:37

FatTofu:
*- Based on a news article on stuff.co.nz saying that there were 70000 households on the cable network. It also stated that 90% of Wellington houses were connected to the network while in Christchurch it was only 65%. Figures from statistics NZ shows occupied dwelling numbers for Wellington is 68901 + 19368 from Kapiti (90% = 79442) and Christchurch 135261 (65% =
87920) therefore combined number of houses on network is 167362."

That Wellington figure is Wellington City not greater Wellington so you need to add Lower Hutt and Upper Hutt - another 50,000 dwellings.

When you say "90% of Wellington houses were connected to the network" do you mean 90% *can* connect?

FatTofu

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#93321 1-Nov-2007 18:26

Yeah I would assume *can*, if they had 90% of all the houses in Wellington I think they'd make more of a profit.

KiwiOverseas66

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#93342 1-Nov-2007 20:45

FatTofu: I did this some time ago so the figures could be out and my reasoning wrong but hey, I got a good grade on my assignment! Haha

"In regards to the broadband market the major player is Telecom who holds a monopoly over the national market and is the outright market leader with 61% of the broadband market while Telstraclear has 12%...

lol! Okay, I'm presuming this was a marketing paper? Unless someone changed the definition lately, within economics a monopoly is defined as "one" (Fonterra, NZ Post, etc) - so if Telecom have 61% of the market, Telstra 12%, etc - it aint a monopoly. I know that doesn't hold with popular convention - but I'm just the messenger - I didn't invent the term and its meaning is fairly black and white (its useage, however, is very grey). I remember when one of the spokesman for Telstra referred to Telecom Mobile and Vodafone as "those two monopolies". What's wrong with this statement....hello! Even if its a measurement of the local loop - Telstra cable would have to be completely absent?

"*- Based on a news article on stuff.co.nz saying that there were 70000 households on the cable network. It also stated that 90% of Wellington houses were connected to the network while in Christchurch it was only 65%. Figures from statistics NZ shows occupied dwelling numbers for Wellington is 68901 + 19368 from Kapiti (90% = 79442) and Christchurch 135261 (65% = 87920) therefore combined number of houses on network is 167362."

So either Telstra has 167,000 households on the network (90% + 65%), or they have 70,000 households, but not 90% + 65%? Which one do you think it is - because its almost 2 and half times difference between the comparitive figures - which is more than just a little bit out!

Oh - not criticising your material by the way - interesting stuff, good on ya for posting it!

FatTofu

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#93364 1-Nov-2007 22:28

There's over 167000 houses that is on the cable network and they have 70000 cable customers which is where I got the 42% and 31% figures from.

Now adjusting and adding in Upper Hutt and Lower Hutt:

Occupied dwellings in:

Wellington City area - 68901
Lower Hutt Area - 35727
Upper Hutt Area - 14253
Kapiti Area - 19368
Christchurch City Area - 135261

Total Occupied Dwellings = 273510

TelstraClear market share in area = 25.59%

On houses that are connected to their network:

Wellington (Kapiti & Hutt) - 90% of 138249 = 124424
Christchurch - 65% of 135261 = 87920

Total Houses connected to their cable = 212344

TelstraClear market share with occupied dwellings on their network = 32.97%

Hope that makes more sense

I could also add in unoccupied dwellings but I can't be bothered.