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Batman
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  #2150382 25-Dec-2018 09:08
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Hammerer:

 

Batman:

 

Rikkitic:

 

When 99 people say the planet is warming, and one person says it is cooling, I'm inclined to agree with the 99.

 

 

In that case you could have still been sure that the earth was flat!

 

 

Your point loses its impact because you are using a "modern" myth to make your point.

 

It is a "modern" misconception based on a late-nineteenth century ideological polemic which has become an incredibly deep-rooted fallacy in arguments supporting science over other things. Even today most people probably believe that the vast majority of people used to believe that the world is flat.

 

I am dumbfounded that this excrement keeps being recycled. The fact is that scientist-philosophers were proving the earth to be spherical before Christmas Day was an idea.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myth_of_the_flat_Earth

 

Historian Jeffrey Burton Russell says the flat-Earth error flourished most between 1870 and 1920, and had to do with the ideological setting created by struggles over biological evolution. Russell claims "with extraordinary few exceptions no educated person in the history of Western Civilization from the third century B.C. onward believed that the Earth was flat", and ascribes popularization of the flat-Earth myth to histories by John William Draper, Andrew Dickson White, and Washington Irving.

 

If you read the writings used to create this myth then you very quickly lose any taste for using it ever again.

 

 

 

 

Well the point is that, normally 99% of people would believe in something widely accepted until that 1% rebel makes an experiment to show otherwise, and then slowly the 99% shifts. What did 99% of people believe before the theory of evolution was published? Is that a myth too?




Hammerer
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  #2150384 25-Dec-2018 09:25
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Batman:

 

Well the point is that, normally 99% of people would believe in something widely accepted until that 1% rebel makes an experiment to show otherwise, and then slowly the 99% shifts. What did 99% of people believe before the theory of evolution was published? Is that a myth too?

 

 

In practice, the 99%:1% ratio almost never occurs.

 

For a start, there are at least three positions on any point: Agree, Disagree, Unsure, Other non-specific with respect to the point - this includes don't know, don't care,  don't think about it, never though about it, don't understand the question, will not answer and 42.

 

Test that yourself. Tally x and y and the rebels will likely to be the the z% (somewhere > 1%) who will ruin your test results.

 

Rebels don't usually bother with trying to disprove the conventional wisdom because they already chose an opposing position and won't engage conventionally. Upsetting the conventional wisdom usually falls to those who don't want to upset the established order.

 

 


Rikkitic

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  #2150405 25-Dec-2018 10:23
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In any case, everyone who jumped on this misconstrued my point. Maybe I should have said 99% of informed opinion. That rules out bible-thumpers and New Age believers in the mystical and everyone else who looks for truth in the entrails of a chicken. I believe in science and scientific method and peer-reviewed research. I also know science can make mistakes and scientists can be hoaxers, but when the overwhelming majority of reputable scientists say something is true over an extended period of time, and this appears to be backed up by empirical evidence, I am inclined to think it is more likely to be true than any competing minority opinion.

 

 





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  #2151125 27-Dec-2018 13:41
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Rikkitic:

 

In any case, everyone who jumped on this misconstrued my point. Maybe I should have said 99% of informed opinion. That rules out bible-thumpers and New Age believers in the mystical and everyone else who looks for truth in the entrails of a chicken. I believe in science and scientific method and peer-reviewed research. I also know science can make mistakes and scientists can be hoaxers, but when the overwhelming majority of reputable scientists say something is true over an extended period of time, and this appears to be backed up by empirical evidence, I am inclined to think it is more likely to be true than any competing minority opinion.

 

 

 

 

Go Newtonian physics!!!!!!! the overwhelming majority of reputable scientists believed in that. “Asked in 1919 whether it was true that only three people in the world understood the theory of general relativity, [Eddington] allegedly replied: 'Who's the third?” ― Arthur Stanley Eddington. If  people followed Rikkitic logic, then science would not advance.  


Rikkitic

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  #2151131 27-Dec-2018 14:00
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So what is your point? Do you have one? Newtonian physics does a perfectly adequate job of explaining things on a planetary scale. It got people to the moon and back. It got probes through the solar system and beyond. It has hardly been discredited. If you actually  understood my logic, you would realise that science cannot advance without it. Knowledge is not revelation on tablets of stone. It is an ongoing process of theory, testing, evidence, adjustment, and so on. Science is doing a very good job of advancing, thank you. If climate change skeptics come with better science to support their beliefs, majority opinion will shift. That is how it works.

 

 





Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

 


 


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  #2151139 27-Dec-2018 14:27
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As the World has made such fabulous progress in the last 20 years towards the elimination of wars, development of peaceful societies in Latin America and Africa, famines, civil wars, over-population, emergence of neo nazi groups,refugees, trade issues, etc, fixing global warming will be an absolute doddle.  The United Nations have a plan!


 
 
 
 

Shop now for Dyson appliances (affiliate link).
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  #2151142 27-Dec-2018 14:32
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amiga500:

 

As the World has made such fabulous progress in the last 20 years towards the elimination of wars, famines, civil wars, over-population, emergence of neo nazi groups,trade issues, etc,

 

 

I must have missed that memo


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  #2175038 8-Feb-2019 13:13
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There must be a conspiracy!

 

NOAA, NASA, Berkeley Earth, the United Kingdom's Hadley Centre and the Japan Meteorological Agency all report that Earth's 5 warmest years on record have occurred since 2014.


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  #2175060 8-Feb-2019 14:11
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Fred99:

 

NOAA, NASA, Berkeley Earth, the United Kingdom's Hadley Centre and the Japan Meteorological Agency all report that Earth's 5 warmest years on record have occurred since 2014.

 

 

Thanks for the link. I really liked NASA's animated graph from 1881 to 2018. It is worth a look.


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  #2175152 8-Feb-2019 18:11
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Hammerer:

 

Fred99:

 

NOAA, NASA, Berkeley Earth, the United Kingdom's Hadley Centre and the Japan Meteorological Agency all report that Earth's 5 warmest years on record have occurred since 2014.

 

 

Thanks for the link. I really liked NASA's animated graph from 1881 to 2018. It is worth a look.

 

 

I think it'll load on this site okay (animated GIF):

 


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  #2175153 8-Feb-2019 18:15
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Surely the sub heading is wrong? Shouldn’t it be 1880-2015?




“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


 
 
 

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Fred99
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  #2175156 8-Feb-2019 18:29
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Dingbatt: Surely the sub heading is wrong? Shouldn’t it be 1880-2015?

 

No - I don't think so.

 

It seems to be standard to use a point of reference where the temperature averages are known to be very accurate - the further you go back the more questionable they probably are, but the individual annual records are displayed in that case as "below average".

 

Similarly, from the Earth.nullschool.net project:

 

ocean surface temperatures and anomaly from daily average (1981-2011) updated daily

 

 

The sea surface temperature anomaly today showing most of our region 1-4 deg C above that 30 year average.

 

If it was possible to show 100 year average, then the pile of crap we're in might probably look even more dire.

 

 

 

 


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  #2175165 8-Feb-2019 19:08
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Oh I see now.
It’s showing the variation throughout the year from the recent mean.
Starts off varying from 3 degrees below to 1 above in 1880, to now where it varies from -2 to +2 about the mean, which makes sense (otherwise it wouldn’t be mean).

But while I’m in an inquisitive mood, why are there big gaps in the historical traces? Gaps of 25 years sometimes.

And while I’m at it, why are there what appear to be cold patches around Norfolk Island and the Kermadecs (and south of the Chathams) on the surface temperature chart? Or is there just a lack of data for those locations?




“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


Fred99
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  #2175340 8-Feb-2019 23:50
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Dingbatt: Oh I see now.
It’s showing the variation throughout the year from the recent mean.
Starts off varying from 3 degrees below to 1 above in 1880, to now where it varies from -2 to +2 about the mean, which makes sense (otherwise it wouldn’t be mean).

But while I’m in an inquisitive mood, why are there big gaps in the historical traces? Gaps of 25 years sometimes.

And while I’m at it, why are there what appear to be cold patches around Norfolk Island and the Kermadecs (and south of the Chathams) on the surface temperature chart? Or is there just a lack of data for those locations?

 

Yes sure.  There's been about 1 deg warming so far - but it's accelerating.

 

The big gaps are not shown in the graph - they're just "record years" highlighted in the list  There used to be 25 year gaps between record years.  There aren't now.

 

The sea surface temperature anomaly image is a snapshot showing "weather now" - not climate.  Of course there are some patches colder than average.  FWIW, the cold patch around the Chathams today is 1.5 deg below average.  The large warm areas off the NSW and Tasmanian coasts are 3-4 deg above average.  

 

 


Rikkitic

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  #2181440 17-Feb-2019 10:40
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According to this, we can save the planet if we just eat better. I am a vegetarian and I try to avoid sugar. Not for health reasons, I should point out. I just don't like sweet things. Does this make me a hero?

 

 





Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

 


 


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