MikeB4:
I really hope we do not get any further significant after shocks. I think we will see a real mess in the capital if this continues.
The Wellington Quake Live site seems to be graphing quakes from the re-activated Seddon area where most of the aftershock activity affecting Wellington is coming from.
So - it's looking okay - it is dying down even if it doesn't feel like it.
More pronounced decay in the N Canty region covered by the Canterbury Quake Live site.
Usual disclaimer that it's very complex - Geonet has high probability (91%) of 0-6 M5 to M6 shakes, lower (22%) probability of 0-2 >M7 shakes over the next 30 days.
But that's over the larger region, which does include Wgtn itself, even if probably they'd be closer to existing activity.
Chch decay sequence showed us what can happen. Fewer quakes doesn't mean that there won't be some nasty ones.



