Today's Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

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#3250901 19-Jun-2024 17:30

From Trump on Truth Social

"HAPPY FATHER'S DAY TO ALL, INCLUDING THE RADICAL LEFT DEGENERATES THAT ARE RAPIDLY BRINGING THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA INTO THIRD WORLD NATION STATUS WITH THEIR MANY ATTEMPTS AT TRYING TO INFLUENCE OUR SACRED COURT SYSTEM INTO BREAKING TO THEIR VERY SICK AND DANGEROUS WILL,"

Someone replied to a post from Ivanka Trump about sugar daddy day, sorry I mean, father's day.

"Trump cheated on your mother with the mother of your half sister, whose mother he cheated on with the mother of your half brother, whose mother he cheated on with a playboy model whom he cheated on with a porn star. Model father"

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#3251849 22-Jun-2024 11:40

After making a song and dance about Copilot and how you could use it to control your PC, with commands that could change settings and all, Microsoft has changed it. It is now not even close...

Microsoft makes Copilot less useful on new Copilot Plus PCs - The Verge

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Dingbatt

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#3251852 22-Jun-2024 11:50

kingdragonfly: From Trump on Truth Social….

I stay away from the politics forum to avoid this BS. Please don’t pollute other forums with it.

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

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#3251858 22-Jun-2024 12:06

Two of my close friends grew up together from childhood and were very close. They both had one child each. Friend A dies. Both their children later next year expected babies in different months.

Friend A's daughter has a baby on Friend B's birthday. Yesterday Friend B's offspring has a baby on dead Friend A's birthday. What are the chances.

Both expected delivery dates were far from the actual birth dates.

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#3251862 22-Jun-2024 12:16

Eva888:

Two of my close friends grew up together from childhood and were very close. They both had one child each. Friend A dies. Both their children later next year expected babies in different months.

Friend A's daughter has a baby on Friend B's birthday. Yesterday Friend B's offspring has a baby on dead Friend A's birthday. What are the chances.

Both expected delivery dates were far from the actual birth dates.

ChatGPT says:

1. Probability of a Baby Being Born on a Specific Day

For any given day of the year, the probability of a baby being born on that day is: P(specific day)=1365P(\text{specific day}) = \frac{1}{365}P(specific day)=3651

2. Probability for Two Independent Events

We need to calculate the probability for two separate events occurring:

Friend A's daughter having a baby on Friend B's birthday.
Friend B's offspring having a baby on Friend A's birthday.

Since these events are independent, the probability of both occurring can be found by multiplying the probabilities of each event:

Event 1: Friend A's Daughter's Baby on Friend B's Birthday

P(Event 1)=1365P(\text{Event 1}) = \frac{1}{365}P(Event 1)=3651

Event 2: Friend B's Offspring's Baby on Friend A's Birthday

P(Event 2)=1365P(\text{Event 2}) = \frac{1}{365}P(Event 2)=3651

Combined Probability for Both Events

P(both events)=P(Event 1)×P(Event 2)P(\text{both events}) = P(\text{Event 1}) \times P(\text{Event 2})P(both events)=P(Event 1)×P(Event 2) P(both events)=(1365)×(1365)P(\text{both events}) = \left( \frac{1}{365} \right) \times \left( \frac{1}{365} \right)P(both events)=(3651)×(3651) P(both events)=13652P(\text{both events}) = \frac{1}{365^2}P(both events)=36521 P(both events)=1133,225P(\text{both events}) = \frac{1}{133,225}P(both events)=133,2251

Conclusion:

The probability of Friend A's daughter having a baby on Friend B's birthday and Friend B's offspring having a baby on Friend A's birthday is approximately 1133,225\frac{1}{133,225}133,2251, or about 0.00075%. This is an extremely rare coincidence.

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#3251865 22-Jun-2024 12:24

Rikkitic:

ChatGPT says:

And... all credibility lost in the first statement.

The calculation doesn't appear to take into account the due date. Greater than 90% of births are going to be +/- 14 days from the due date, so I expect we'd need some additional details to work out the chance of this occurrence. I.e. how far outside the due date were the births. Safe to day, it's much, much more likely than 0.00075%.

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#3251869 22-Jun-2024 12:31

It did say something about leap years but I didn't include that.

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#3251883 22-Jun-2024 13:50

SirHumphreyAppleby:

And... all credibility lost in the first statement.

The calculation doesn't appear to take into account the due date. Greater than 90% of births are going to be +/- 14 days from the due date, so I expect we'd need some additional details to work out the chance of this occurrence. I.e. how far outside the due date were the births. Safe to day, it's much, much more likely than 0.00075%.

AND most importantly, the spread of dates for birthdays is not equal

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#3251887 22-Jun-2024 14:06

OK I didn't copy the entire text and I don't remember it exactly, but there was also something about averaging the days of the months to give a good estimate. I think you are nitpicking here.

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sir1963

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#3251891 22-Jun-2024 14:40

Rikkitic:

OK I didn't copy the entire text and I don't remember it exactly, but there was also something about averaging the days of the months to give a good estimate. I think you are nitpicking here.

Not at all. You will find a definite skew for August/September/October.... that would be because Xmas and New year are 9 months beforehand.

https://www.statista.com/chart/5814/the-months-of-the-year-with-the-most-births/

And this.

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/#:~:text=23%20people.,at%20least%20two%20people%20matching .

Edit: not enough coffee so fixed the missing link

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#3251894 22-Jun-2024 14:52

I don't think ChatGPT gets emotional about birthdays but I'm not trying to defend it, just report what it said. Probably I got that wrong. You should discuss this with the bot if you want to carry it further. That can actually be quite interesting.

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#3251895 22-Jun-2024 15:08

Dyson spheres discovered? Probably not, according to Neil deGrasse Tyson. 10 minute video

Did Scientists Discover Alien Mega-Structures?

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#3251960 22-Jun-2024 16:25

"Did Scientists Discover Alien Mega-Structures?"

See Betteridge's law of headlines - Wikipedia.

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#3251974 22-Jun-2024 17:24

Dingbatt:

kingdragonfly: From Trump on Truth Social….

I stay away from the politics forum to avoid this BS. Please don’t pollute other forums with it.

I can't post there after cracking a cheap joke about a Cabinet minister. And it was my 1st strike too. Maybe it came across as unwittingly ableist or something like that.

"I regret to say that we of the F.B.I. are powerless to act in cases of oral-genital intimacy, unless it has in some way obstructed interstate commerce." — J. Edgar Hoover

"Create a society that values material things above all else. Strip it of industry. Raise taxes for the poor and reduce them for the rich and for corporations. Prop up failed financial institutions with public money. Ask for more tax, while vastly reducing public services. Put adverts everywhere, regardless of people's ability to afford the things they advertise. Allow the cost of food and housing to eclipse people's ability to pay for them. Light blue touch paper." — Andrew Maxwell

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#3252008 22-Jun-2024 20:59

SirHumphreyAppleby:

Rikkitic:

ChatGPT says:

And... all credibility lost in the first statement.

Particularly since you can just google "birthday paradox", something so well-known it has its own name, and get all the explanations you need without having to wonder whether ChatGPT just hallucinated the answer for you or not.

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