Climate Change Thread

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#3254479 29-Jun-2024 16:46

How long do we give it before climate-controlled citywide biodomes & personal cooling suits become a thing? Especially when only the wealthiest can likely afford them.

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kingdragonfly

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#3254482 29-Jun-2024 16:53

Batman: [Athletes at Paris Olympics] are probably worried after what happened at the Hajj pilgramage

Human Rights Watch: Heat vs Humanity, Daily Brief June 26, 2024
...
As the impacts of global warming become ever more apparent, heat has hit the headlines around the world these days like never before.

In Saudi Arabia this month, more than 1,300 people have died during the annual Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Heat stress has been a major contributing factor to the death toll, with temperatures soaring beyond 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit).

Across the US, some 65 million people are facing heat alerts as another “heat dome” has pushed temperatures in some places over 50C (122F), as well. Heat waves are deadlier than hurricanes, floods, and tornados combined in the US, and heat-related deaths have been increasing, with more than 2,300 in 2023.
...

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#3254546 29-Jun-2024 18:11

Batman:

kingdragonfly:

What's next? Australia, Germany, Italy, Canada and Britain have also reportedly said they will supply air conditioners for their Olympic teams.

no existing air conditioning in Paris? strange.

they are probably worried after what happened at the Hajj pilgramage

They are using an innovative cooing system, Details seem a little sparce, but it seems to be a water loop with some kind of ground or aquifer source, used to cool the rooms, combined with greater than normal insulation.

"The geothermal energy system will ensure that the temperature in the athlete apartments in the Seine-Saint-Denis suburb does not rise above 26 degrees Celsius (79 degrees Fahrenheit) at night, including during a potential a heat wave, said Laurent Michaud, the director of the Olympic and Paralympic Villages.

He said organizers have conducted tests in rooms that are located on the highest floors of the residences and are facing south and exposed to direct sun on two sides. They also considered directions of winds in the region and the water temperature in the Seine. They have worked closely with France’s national weather agency to develop temperature forecasts.

“Despite outdoor temperatures reaching 41 degrees Celsius (106 degrees Fahrenheit), we had temperatures at 28 degrees (82 degrees Fahrenheit) in most of these rooms,” Michaud told The Associated Press, detailing the results of a heatwave simulation. “In other rooms, we clearly had lower temperatures.”

In addition to the underfloor cooling, the insulation built into the buildings will enable residents to keep the cold obtained during the night throughout the day, Michaud said. To keep the coolness inside, the athletes will have to follow some basic rules, he added, including making sure the window blinds are shut during the day." [emphasis mine]

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/paris-2024-summer-olympics/paris-keep-2024-olympians-cool-without-air-conditioning/3808521/

Frankly the system is probably a great idea for general use (and likely great for the ultimate occupants after the elite athletes are gone, given the combination of low running cost & somewhat passable cooling), but it doesn't really align with the ethos of elite athletes (especially those spending a lot of time in cold locations or a location's where they typically have air con).

A heap of effort for those around elite athletes is dedicated to replicating peak performance & cutting out risk to that performance. In that light, the analysis that in a 41 degree heatwave would result in most top story rooms being 28degree's is problematic.

In interest of maximum risk reduction, athlete teams will be assuming worst chase for everything. I.e. their entire team gets allocated top floor rooms, and the heat wave matches (or breaks ) the Paris record of 42.6 Deg C, and some of their athletes forget to close the blinds during the day...

Buying a bunch of portable air conditioners (and a glass cutter if the windows don't open) is a fairly cheap mitigation for this risk. (if there is no heat wave, they could just sit in a storage unit and sold after, but it will be worth the money to have then purchased so they can be scrambled if ever needed.)

Just sucks from a optics point of view.

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#3254554 29-Jun-2024 18:37

deepred:

How long do we give it before climate-controlled citywide biodomes & personal cooling suits become a thing? Especially when only the wealthiest can likely afford them.

A long time for the biodomes.

A 4 degree C rise vs preindustrial levels by 2100 is viewed as pretty environmentally catastrophic, yet the vast majority of urban area's would still be livable.

There will of course be some issues in locations already marginal for high heat but I suspect it will be handled by more dependency on building / vehicle air conditioning, and people moving to cooler locations.

The sea level rise & impact on food sources is likely to be more pressing.

On personal cooling suits, I suppressed this isn't more of a thing. Fairly common place for race car drivers, I would expect this tech to make it's way into more industries.

kingdragonfly

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#3266826 1-Aug-2024 09:43

Lots of rough language

Lewis Black Heats Up Over The Hottest Summer in History

Back in Black | The Daily Show

jrdobbs

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#3266843 1-Aug-2024 10:04

morrisk:

The experts are still holding out some hope so hopefully it's not too late to ensure that we - or our grandchildren - at least manage to survive this.

Are these the same experts that twenty years ago were saying by 2020 the planet would be almost dead?

While I agree that we should look after this planet (as it's the only one we have) I can't help feel that "climate change" is one big politcal gravy train.

I don't practice what I preach because I'm not the kind of person I'm preaching to.

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sir1963

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#3266947 1-Aug-2024 11:59

jrdobbs:

morrisk:

The experts are still holding out some hope so hopefully it's not too late to ensure that we - or our grandchildren - at least manage to survive this.

Are these the same experts that twenty years ago were saying by 2020 the planet would be almost dead?

While I agree that we should look after this planet (as it's the only one we have) I can't help feel that "climate change" is one big politcal gravy train.

Nope, climate change is real, its not going away.

20 years ago the models were not as refined, we are getting more refined models and better quality data all the time time. Just think how fast your computer was 20 years ago, and how "dial up" was the norm. The political part is from people who stand to lose a lot of money when things like Oil is shut down. Again just look how the tobacco industry behaved.

The fact that people can not see the gradual change (and don't know the difference between climate and weather) does not negate its reality. Think of it was watching your kids grow, you don't see the day by day change .... but its there. You can tell this is true because insurance companies are all about risk, and premiums have gone up as well the the number of places you can not get insurance.

As the old saying goes "Prevention is cheaper than cure"

kingdragonfly

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#3266958 1-Aug-2024 12:13

What experts said we would be almost dead in 2020?

Like maintaining a car, you can ignore the experts and refuse maintenance because it costs money now, but that doesn't mean the maintenance can be safely ignored.

Or is this expert on the political gravy train the one you mistrust: NASA Data Shows July 22 Was Earth’s Hottest Day on Record?

jrdobbs

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#3266963 1-Aug-2024 12:27

sir1963:

Nope, climate change is real, its not going away.

20 years ago the models were not as refined, we are getting more refined models and better quality data all the time time. Just think how fast your computer was 20 years ago, and how "dial up" was the norm. The political part is from people who stand to lose a lot of money when things like Oil is shut down. Again just look how the tobacco industry behaved.

There's polictics on both sides of the climate change debate.

So with the refined models, how much is the solar cycle and the changing magnetic pole affecting the climate?

I don't practice what I preach because I'm not the kind of person I'm preaching to.

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#3266965 1-Aug-2024 12:29

jrdobbs:

So with the refined models, how much is the solar cycle and the changing magnetic pole affecting the climate?

None at all.

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jrdobbs

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#3266971 1-Aug-2024 12:41

It's a shame you can't read that article without subscribing.

So are they saying a full change in the magnetic pole won't change the climate in any way shape or form?

I don't practice what I preach because I'm not the kind of person I'm preaching to.

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#3266974 1-Aug-2024 12:47

jrdobbs:

It's a shame you can't read that article without subscribing.

So are they saying a full change in the magnetic pole won't change the climate in any way shape or form?

Who's saying that a full change in the magnetic pole will? Where are you getting that info?

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#3266982 1-Aug-2024 12:54

jrdobbs:

It's a shame you can't read that article without subscribing.

Which bit couldn't you read?

When solar radiation and cosmic rays threaten to penetrate Earth’s surface, a vast magnetic field generated within Earth’s outer core safeguards the planet by deflecting harmful space energy. This is known as the magnetosphere.

Scientists know that the internal forces that generate Earth’s magnetic field can change and that the strength of the field oscillates over time. This can lead to gradual shifts in the intensity and location of Earth’s magnetic north and south poles and even reversals where Earth’s magnetic poles trade places.

But are these geomagnetic events responsible for extreme weather, extinction, and even disasters? Claims that Earth’s magnetic field is responsible for climate change are rampant online, but scientists say the theory has no merit.

“At this time there aren't any credible mechanisms that could make it a possibility,” says Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist and director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. “It's not that we're ruling out magnetic effects on climate without thinking about it, we collectively have thought about it, and it's been found wanting.”

Misinformation around shifting magnetic poles

There are three north poles on Earth: true north, geomagnetic north, and magnetic north.

True north is a fixed position on the globe that points directly towards the geographic North Pole. But geomagnetic north, currently located over Canada’s Ellesmere Island, is not a fixed point—it represents the northern axis of Earth’s magnetosphere and shifts from time to time. Magnetic north corresponds to magnetic field lines and is what your compass locates.

Since Arctic explorer James Clark Ross first located it in 1831, Earth’s magnetic north pole has bounded 600 miles north-northwest and its forward speed has quickened from around 10 miles per year to roughly 34 miles per year, explained Alan Buis in a 2021 blog for Ask NASA Climate. While these changes may have an impact on satellites and magnetic-based navigation—from cell phones, to ships to commercial airlines— there is no evidence it influences Earth’s climate.

However, the “Adam and Eve Story,” a climate change conspiracy theory that attributes climate change impacts to changes in Earth’s magnetic field, is having a second life on Instagram and TikTok.

The Adam and Eve theory was revitalized when it was featured on a January 2023 episode of the “Joe Rogan Experience.”

Between January and April 2023, the media watchdog group, Media Matters identified seven viral clips from the January episode discussing the conspiracy theory, which has garnered millions of views on TikTok.

The fake theory was coined in 1965 by Chan Thomas, a former U.S. Air Force employee who suggested magnetic pole reversals were responsible for the extinction of several ancient civilizations. Thomas claimed that the first flood happened with Adam and Eve, followed by Noah and the Ark—and that the third event has yet to be observed.

What do magnetic shifts have to do with Earth’s climate?

Geomagnetic excursions are significant but short-lived variations in magnetic field intensity that can span a few centuries to thousands of years, according to NASA. The last major excursion occurred around 41,500 years ago and is known as the Laschamps excursion. During this event, Earth’s magnetic field rapidly weakened and the poles flipped, only to reverse again 500 years later.

A 2021 study connects the Laschamps excursion to climate upheaval, extinction events, and even changes to human behavior. The scientists hypothesized that during a time when Earth’s magnetic field was weaker than normal, increased solar and cosmic radiation was able to penetrate Earth’s atmosphere, altering ozone levels and driving global climate shifts and extinctions.

But Schmidt says this study is speculative at best. “Where is the evidence for any changes in climate 42,000 years ago that are associated with extinctions? There are no shifts in the ice cores. We know that there was a lot of climate variability over the last ice age, and we have it pretty well-timed, none of it lines up with this magnetic excursion.”

In the past 70,000 years there have been three notable excursions: the Norwegian-Greenland Sea event that took place about 64,000 years ago, the Laschamps event between 42,000 and 41,000 years ago, and the Mono Lake event which happened around 34,500 years ago.

For Buis the key takeaway is that, “There’s no evidence that Earth’s climate has been significantly impacted by the last three magnetic field excursions, nor by any excursion event within at least the last 2.8 million years.”

How about pole reversals?

During a pole reversal, Earth’s magnetic north and south poles swap locations. This happens on average every 300,000 years or so, but the last flip occurred around 780,000 years ago, according to NASA. In Earth’s geologic history, pole reversals are relatively common, reversing 183 times in the last 83 million years.

When a pole reversal occurs, the magnetic field substantially decreases in strength, but Earth is not left defenseless. The magnetosphere teams up with Earth’s atmosphere to deflect the majority of harmful space energy before it reaches Earth’s surface. Some scientists have hypothesized that reversals and the corresponding decrease in strength of the magnetic field could lead to global climate shifts and extinctions, but current data does not support these claims.

“There's no evidence that links magnetic changes to climate when we've seen big magnetic reversals or near reversals in the paleoclimate record,” says Schmidt. “There's no climate change that goes with them, there's no mass extinction that goes with them.”

Kirk Johnson, a director of the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History has spent much of his career studying the extinction of the dinosaurs. While analyzing fossil records and timelines surrounding the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary and extinction event, Johnson zeroed in on the magnetic reversal that occurred around 66.3 million years ago.

Deep ocean sediment samples revealed significant climate change around 66.3 million years ago, says Johnson. But this also coincides with a large volcanic eruption in India called the Deccan volcanism, which produced some of the longest lava flows on Earth.

“We've always attributed that transition to the carbon dioxide released by the Deccan volcanism and the increase of greenhouse gases,” says Johnson. “There's two things happening: The magnetic field is changing, the Deccan volcanism is happening, and there's climate warming. So that would be an example of coincidental climate change.”

He adds, “The cautionary tale there is that just because you have correlation doesn't mean you have causation.”

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#3266986 1-Aug-2024 12:59

jrdobbs:

There's polictics on both sides of the climate change debate.

So with the refined models, how much is the solar cycle and the changing magnetic pole affecting the climate?

As for Solar activity....
https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/

"The Sun can influence Earth’s climate, but it isn’t responsible for the warming trend we’ve seen over recent decades. The Sun is a giver of life; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. We know subtle changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the ice ages. But the warming we’ve seen in recent decades is too rapid to be linked to changes in Earth’s orbit and too large to be caused by solar activity.

One of the “smoking guns” that tells us the Sun is not causing global warming comes from looking at the amount of solar energy that hits the top of the atmosphere. Since 1978, scientists have been tracking this using sensors on satellites, which tell us that there has been no upward trend in the amount of solar energy reaching our planet.

A second smoking gun is that if the Sun were responsible for global warming, we would expect to see warming throughout all layers of the atmosphere, from the surface to the upper atmosphere (stratosphere). But what we actually see is warming at the surface and cooling in the stratosphere. This is consistent with the warming being caused by a buildup of heat-trapping gases near Earth's surface, and not by the Sun getting “hotter.”"

EDIT: Removed extra blank lines

sir1963

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#3266987 1-Aug-2024 13:02

jrdobbs:

It's a shame you can't read that article without subscribing.

So are they saying a full change in the magnetic pole won't change the climate in any way shape or form?

No, they are saying they are KNOWN variables and have been added into the models, and as more information becomes available those additions will also be refined.

Science is wonderfull, it is more than happy to be proven wrong when a better model comes around, this is NOT a flaw, it is a strength. And yet we are still finding proofs of Einsteins work over 100 years later and he had no computer to work with.

It is the conspiracy nuts and those with a large financial interest who muddy the waters.

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