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mattwnz
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  #901381 23-Sep-2013 18:25
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tdgeek:
networkn: I think it's worth noting, something which didn't occur to me until this very second... ETNZ has won 8 races, but Oracle have won 7!

Without the penalties they got, we would have a SERIOUS problem right now.


True, but we were  winning 3 further races, before they got cancelled.

I'm not taking the last races as Oracle now being the best boat/team. If we win the start and first mark and we get beaten, then they have overtaken. But I can see us leaving them to it once we get a shot of racing to 5 marks and getting the best wind and the best current over the whole race. If they are even as many say, then the boat losing the start cannot win in an error free race.



But they were in lighter winds, and the rules have been setup so that light wind races will get abandoned due to the 40 minute time limit. Winning the start can help, but didn't TNZ win the start of todays and still lost.



tdgeek
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  #901390 23-Sep-2013 18:43
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mattwnz:
tdgeek:
networkn: I think it's worth noting, something which didn't occur to me until this very second... ETNZ has won 8 races, but Oracle have won 7!

Without the penalties they got, we would have a SERIOUS problem right now.


True, but we were  winning 3 further races, before they got cancelled.

I'm not taking the last races as Oracle now being the best boat/team. If we win the start and first mark and we get beaten, then they have overtaken. But I can see us leaving them to it once we get a shot of racing to 5 marks and getting the best wind and the best current over the whole race. If they are even as many say, then the boat losing the start cannot win in an error free race.



But they were in lighter winds, and the rules have been setup so that light wind races will get abandoned due to the 40 minute time limit. Winning the start can help, but didn't TNZ win the start of todays and still lost.


I dont think they won the start. They were a few feet in front and a bit faster in one race, but they had the non ideal side, and couldn't roll past Oracle. Tomorrow they have the favoured side, that will tell all. If they are even, they should be in front and with the better wind and current should hold on comfortably. Im no expert, just go by what I hear from commentators and the skippers, but TNZ is a bit better in lighter winds, Oracle is only a bit better in higher winds, many feel they are not that far off high wind speed. That being the case, the wind/current advantage if they start sound enough should hold off the challenger as to me, the difference in the boats is outweighed now by the advantage of always getting clean air, and choosing the current to take or forcing the other to the less advantageous current. Up till now the boats and teams varied enough to steal the advantage or steal off a mistake. There is little real gap now to have that option. Tomorrow will tell.

Fred99
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  #901397 23-Sep-2013 18:46
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mattwnz:
tdgeek:
networkn: I think it's worth noting, something which didn't occur to me until this very second... ETNZ has won 8 races, but Oracle have won 7!

Without the penalties they got, we would have a SERIOUS problem right now.


True, but we were  winning 3 further races, before they got cancelled.

I'm not taking the last races as Oracle now being the best boat/team. If we win the start and first mark and we get beaten, then they have overtaken. But I can see us leaving them to it once we get a shot of racing to 5 marks and getting the best wind and the best current over the whole race. If they are even as many say, then the boat losing the start cannot win in an error free race.



But they were in lighter winds, and the rules have been setup so that light wind races will get abandoned due to the 40 minute time limit. Winning the start can help, but didn't TNZ win the start of todays and still lost.


No - not really - IIRC they might have been across the start line ahead of OR on the first race (or was it the second?), but it's probably better to include the first leg in the overall "start" as they're positioning themselves to get around that first - and at full speed.  Spithill did a good job today - once behind it's hard to catch up (even if ETNZ have done it in the past - when they had a faster boat/better technique).
Pays to remember that in a downwind leg in this AC73 racing, apparent wind is always ahead of you.  In the old monohulls on a downwind spinnaker run, the trailing boat could work to throw a wind-shadow on the lead boat.  These races the lead boat "downwind" can cast a wind shadow on the boat behind - it makes it very hard to get past - and explains why ETNZ made what looked like "errors" in desperation to find a little luck. The commentators sum it up by the saying "the rich get richer".  It's going to be very hard for ETNZ to pass OR if they are ahead.  ETNZ know they have to win the starts tomorrow from Port entry advantage - and OR will be very aware of this - it could be very fiery stuff.



networkn

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  #901673 24-Sep-2013 09:26
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Streaming was flawless but man this is starting to feel awful.

tdgeek
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  #901677 24-Sep-2013 09:33
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networkn: Streaming was flawless but man this is starting to feel awful.


Had port advantage, lost start, lost race. I believe that tomorrow Oracle has port advantage, so with it being win start win race, odds have to be in their favour. 8-1 to this, hard to believe


networkn

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  #901679 24-Sep-2013 09:35
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tdgeek:
networkn: Streaming was flawless but man this is starting to feel awful.


Had port advantage, lost start, lost race. I believe that tomorrow Oracle has port advantage, so with it being win start win race, odds have to be in their favour. 8-1 to this, hard to believe



I know, a bigger comeback in sports history I cannot recall. They have now won the same number of races as us and won more starts. Having said that, if they can win off port advantage, so can we.

Someone needs to go and talk to these guys. I hate to say it, but Oracle seem to want the win more right now. 


MikeB4
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  #901680 24-Sep-2013 09:35
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losing on the water will save TNZ tens of millions in legal costs. Larry Ellison will never let go of the cup.

 
 
 

Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).
tdgeek
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  #901681 24-Sep-2013 09:36
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In fact I would prefer to see an American Team and an Australian team, UK team, NZ team, rather than an American heavily funded team compromising mainly Kiwis, Aussies, and UK sailors.

Oblivian
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  #901682 24-Sep-2013 09:37
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Predictions comming true.. Time off mods = OTUSA now faster in light winds. And have practiced starts and watched our footage. Look how fast they accelerated away from a neck and neck start, and foiled with no code-0

There was a comment made they spent all yesterday afternoon and last night 'in the shed' and intend on doing it again today. Someones got smarter engineers than us (and more of them) methinks.

Tomorrow calls for stronger winds.. guess who that favours now too...

BlueShift
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  #901685 24-Sep-2013 09:37
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tdgeek:
networkn: Streaming was flawless but man this is starting to feel awful.


Had port advantage, lost start, lost race. I believe that tomorrow Oracle has port advantage, so with it being win start win race, odds have to be in their favour. 8-1 to this, hard to believe



We still have Port advantage for the next race.

networkn

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  #901690 24-Sep-2013 09:39
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Oblivian: Predictions comming true.. Time off mods = OTUSA now faster in light winds. And have practiced starts and watched our footage. Look how fast they accelerated away from a neck and neck start, and foiled with no code-0

There was a comment made they spent all yesterday afternoon and last night 'in the shed' and intend on doing it again today. Someones got smarter engineers than us (and more of them) methinks.

Tomorrow calls for stronger winds.. guess who that favours now too...


If Team NZ aren't doing the same all day and night then they should be flayed. 

BlueShift
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  #901692 24-Sep-2013 09:39
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KiwiNZ: losing on the water will save TNZ tens of millions in legal costs. Larry Ellison will never let go of the cup.


Plus if Oracle win, the next race will still be the snazzy AC75s, if TNZ win, they get to set the rules, and may well go back to monohulls, or something else.

MikeB4
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  #901695 24-Sep-2013 09:42
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The last time we had the thing it sucked millions of dollars away from other sports and fund raising. I was involved with funding for a charity that was nearly knackered because of the drying up of available funding.


nicnzl
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  #901698 24-Sep-2013 09:44
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BlueShift:
tdgeek:
networkn: Streaming was flawless but man this is starting to feel awful.


Had port advantage, lost start, lost race. I believe that tomorrow Oracle has port advantage, so with it being win start win race, odds have to be in their favour. 8-1 to this, hard to believe



We still have Port advantage for the next race.


I'm pretty sure Oracle have port advantage first up tomorrow.  We have it for the 2nd race.

tdgeek
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  #901702 24-Sep-2013 09:49
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BlueShift:
tdgeek:
networkn: Streaming was flawless but man this is starting to feel awful.


Had port advantage, lost start, lost race. I believe that tomorrow Oracle has port advantage, so with it being win start win race, odds have to be in their favour. 8-1 to this, hard to believe



We still have Port advantage for the next race.


Cool, I was told that we had it for todays races and if we want to have it again we need to postponement card tomorrow which is Oracles turn.

Tks for the correction.  We have it for race one tomorrow and they have it for race two?

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