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mattwnz
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  #3040885 23-Feb-2023 14:33
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RunningMan:

 

Zigg:

 

More fear from Stuff

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/weather-news/131312848/chance-of-tropical-cyclone-developing-in-the-pacific-next-week-metservice-says

 

 

It's hardly fear. Whilst I wouldn't always rate the quality of Stuff's reporting, it's a reasonable summary of the media release from Metservice dated 22 Feb 5.21pm.

 

 

 

 

The heading should say there is a low chance, rather than just chance.




mattwnz
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  #3040888 23-Feb-2023 14:38
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I was having a look at the Hawkes Bay GIS and their flood hazard maps at https://gis.hbrc.govt.nz/Hazards/ which show the flood risk areas . There are a lot of areas that haven't yet been surveyed and a lot of those areas seem to have flooded. I wonder why they are so far behind other areas such as the Wellington region.


tweake
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  #3040993 23-Feb-2023 17:53
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Zigg:

 

More fear from Stuff

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/weather-news/131312848/chance-of-tropical-cyclone-developing-in-the-pacific-next-week-metservice-says

 

 

 

Although those across the ditch say:

 

In an update on Wednesday evening, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said there were no tropical lows in the Coral Sea at the time.

 

The chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the Coral Sea was “very low” through to Monday, increasing to “low” next Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

 

at the moment long range prediction is two lows forming. one over by oz moving east to noumea, the other forming over vanuatu and heading south to noumea. how that plays out is anyone's guess at this stage, but its one to keep an eye on as there is a block that may stay put out to the east which could force the lows to drop down to nz.




neb

neb
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  #3041138 23-Feb-2023 23:26
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ezbee:


How much is underfunded Metservice, or saving its best for highest paying customers, 
not serving the public interest?

 

 

Metservice gets around 65 million dollars a year.

 

 

Not bad for an organisation where 90% of its output could be replicated by a static web page that reports, for every day of the year, "Chance of rain" and "Chance of wind" (see the earlier post).

tdgeek
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  #3041159 24-Feb-2023 07:11
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neb:

The problem is the Metservice with their oxymoronic "chance of" reporting, you could replace "Coral Sea" on the report with "Sahara Desert" and it'd be just as accurate. There's a chance of a tropical cyclone in the Sahara Desert. Not a very big chance admittedly, but still a chance. So it's up to the media to invent their own interpretation of what it means.

 

I see no issue

 

“Historically, this is the most likely time of year for tropical cyclones to form, with a greater than 50% chance of a cyclone forming or persisting over any 7-day period,” meteorologist Angus Hines said.

 

Next week, activity in the tropics was expected to amplify, with a risk of a tropical cyclone developing.


MadEngineer
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  #3041167 24-Feb-2023 08:08
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Vodafone are keeping some of their generators deployed in anticipation of the upcoming weather.




You're not on Atlantis anymore, Duncan Idaho.

neb

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  #3041257 24-Feb-2023 12:55
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Both Weather Underground and Weatherwatch are predicting 40+mm rain later today, with a huge dump around 6pm. Ugh. I can see why they're keeping their generators out.

 
 
 

Move to New Zealand's best fibre broadband service (affiliate link). Free setup code: R587125ERQ6VE. Note that to use Quic Broadband you must be comfortable with configuring your own router.
tweake
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  #3041409 24-Feb-2023 15:24
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well i've had rain most of the day so far with some very very heavy downpours. some reports of flooding. came home early and got hit by a big downpour. all the gutters where over flowing, the path became the overflow and water almost got into the garage.

 

at work we almost had one shed flood as the drainage system could handle that much.


neb

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  #3041411 24-Feb-2023 15:29
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Where are you located? We've had steady rain all day but it looks like the big hit, which is now at 80mm, is still to come.

tweake
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  #3041413 24-Feb-2023 15:35
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neb: Where are you located? We've had steady rain all day but it looks like the big hit, which is now at 80mm, is still to come.

 

kaipara. flooding was out towards mangawhai.


Deanonzl
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  #3041435 24-Feb-2023 16:14
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Southern Kaipara (Makarau) almost 70mm now.

 

Lots of power flickers too. Generator full & ready.

 

Strange how the Police have stated there are lots of slips around South Head & Topanui, but no direct examples.

 

Are we supposed to guess & stumble across while driving? 


tweake
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  #3041436 24-Feb-2023 16:18
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looks like its flooded a bit. 

 

“Due to slips and flooding, SH1 Waipu to Brynderwyn detour via Kaiwaka-Mangawhai Rd is closed,” Waka Kotahi NZTA reported. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/cyclone-gabrielle-wild-weather-returns-live-updates-heavy-rain-flood-warnings-for-hawkes-bay-gisborne-auckland-coromandel

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/weather-news/300813856/cyclone-gabrielle-live-updates-cyclonehit-regions-brace-for-more-heavy-rain

 

Mangawhai has seen more than 77mm of rain in the past 24 hours and 22mm in the past hour.

 

looks like baldrock road is flooded which usually means SH1 north of kaiwaka is, or very closed to, flooded. that makes life interesting for truckies as its the only truck route north. 


mattwnz
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  #3041437 24-Feb-2023 16:24
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Interesting article and photos from 1938 of similar flooding and silt buildup in the Esk. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-today/news/losing-sight-of-history-esk-valley-flooding-reminder-of-disaster-risks/PIQPTCIAH5EL5IGLZ6N5W3IHY4/   I can't really understand why homes were allowed to be built on it in terms of peoples health and safety. Shouldn't really take this sort of thing and lives lost for decisions to be made. Crops...fine, but that is a risk growers take in a flood plain. 


elpenguino
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  #3041438 24-Feb-2023 16:45
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mattwnz:

 

Interesting article and photos from 1938 of similar flooding and silt buildup in the Esk. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-today/news/losing-sight-of-history-esk-valley-flooding-reminder-of-disaster-risks/PIQPTCIAH5EL5IGLZ6N5W3IHY4/   I can't really understand why homes were allowed to be built on it in terms of peoples health and safety. Shouldn't really take this sort of thing and lives lost for decisions to be made. Crops...fine, but that is a risk growers take in a flood plain. 

 

 

Saw an infotainment-type series on netflix about natural disasters, including hurricane ida which hit florida amongst other places.

 

One coastal place in florida has a simple answer to inundation - every house is raised on poles 22 ft high.

 

In the case of hurricanes, buildings are still wrecked by the wind but that is less of an issue in Esk amongst others.

 

 

 

Raising your house seems too easy to be true, what am I missing?





Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21


neb

neb
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  #3041442 24-Feb-2023 16:49
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elpenguino:

Raising your house seems too easy to be true, what am I missing?

 

 

It's possible, and done as standard in some regions, but it tends to be done when the house is built rather than as a retrofit.

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