29 Miners Stuck in West Coast

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#409082 24-Nov-2010 19:07

Damager: They took too long I believe. I understand they didnt want to rush in before checking that everything was fine to enter.. Rushing is 1 day, they fiddled for 5 days and now there's no chance of survival.

There was a decent chance that this could have ended with a much better result. I feel for the families!

"decent chance" What makes you think the chance was decent? From what I have read the chances of any of the miners surviving the initial blast was incredibly slim.

sleemanj

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#409085 24-Nov-2010 19:15

nakedmolerat:

i suggest you re-read what you write. the bore TODAY showed 95% methance conc. of course it will be that high after 5 days of explosion. this is expected as the dangerous gas will re-accumulate. have you listen to this radio interview?

No, the point is that after ONLY 5 days we are at 95%. THAT tells you just how damn fast it refilled. 95% is actually a lot safer than lesser quantities, as you would of course know, oxygen is required for combustion, 95% methane won't be exploding, but it could burn.

So lets say some bold young souls decided to mount a rescue in that first hour.

The atmosphere would not be assumed breathable, so they have to take their own oxygen, do we agree?

They also have to take oxygen for the rescuees.

How many tanks of oxygen will each rescuer have to carry. For about, say 10 kilometers of walking at a minimum (5 in to the end of the mine, 5 back, if they split up and spread out to conduct the search, given that they don't know where anybody is. They can't use vehicles, because of not only explosion risk, but also mine damage.

How long will they have in which they can to search the mine, ascertain the injuries to the victims, and get them out?

How long is it going to take them to, suit up, collect together the necessary oxygen and medical equipment, and hike 2.5km up the access shaft to the start of the mine proper, then search the kilometers of mine tunnels.

Will the methane level be below explosive concentration for long enough? Given how rapidly it has risen?

Will YOU spin the roulette wheel, do you feel lucky?

Also lets not forget, the miners didn't walk out, that indicates that they were injured, or killed in the blast, in the best case they are alive but not mobile when the rescuers reach them, now the rescuers have to try to extract these miners who can't walk, and their air tanks, and the miners air tanks, on foot, many kilometers, in a mine which is rapidly filling again with methane to an explosive level.

Oh and of course, all this hiking in a hot mine made hotter by a recent explosion and likely continued combustion, is pretty dehydrating, so in addition to a pile of air cylinders, they must also carry water. Again, enough for the rescuers and rescuees.

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Damager

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#409089 24-Nov-2010 19:29

The mayor noted it's ironic that a recovery team is now being sent in shortly after the explosion.

It's been confirmed that the recovery team will be sent in soon, after this second explosion.. if the circumstances haven't changed, then theoretically, the same test results will be analysed, gathered etc, the same conclusions reached, the rescue team should be on hold until it's deemed safe...

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marmel

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#409092 24-Nov-2010 19:33

BraaiGuy:
Damager: They took too long I believe. I understand they didnt want to rush in before checking that everything was fine to enter.. Rushing is 1 day, they fiddled for 5 days and now there's no chance of survival.

There was a decent chance that this could have ended with a much better result. I feel for the families!

+101

Have you watched closeup tonight.

One of the local miners who knows the real facts about the event fully supported the rescue effort.

In fact he referred to those who have been calling for rescuers to go into the mine day after day 'armchair critics' and 'halfwits'.

I'm sure you guys that have been calling for the rescue teams to go in would have a LOT of experience in this field, if not which of the above category do you fit into, if not both?

SpookyAwol

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#409099 24-Nov-2010 19:40

Damager: The mayor noted it's ironic that a recovery team is now being sent in shortly after the explosion.

If you were listening, the Mayor got it wrong - they are not going in as the same conditions still exist.

DjShadow

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#409127 24-Nov-2010 20:09

What chance would there be of getting the bodies out? or should we expect a decision to leave them there?

corksta

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#409139 24-Nov-2010 20:31

After reading all these comments it's obvious Damager and Braaiguy are two people who are not reading the facts about this incident and believe they know more than the 65 experts who are at the site.

It doesn't matter what people say, Damager and Braaiguy will always know better - must be all the mine rescues they've been personally involved in.

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Damager

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#409143 24-Nov-2010 20:39

corksta: After reading all these comments it's obvious Damager and Braaiguy are two people who are not reading the facts about this incident and believe they know more than the 65 experts who are at the site.

It doesn't matter what people say, Damager and Braaiguy will always know better - must be all the mine rescues they've been personally involved in.

That's a silly comment to make corksta. For someone trusted, that's an inappropriate comment to make.

It's just my thoughts, and I stand by them, did i say anywhere and please quote me, where I said that i have personally been involved in any mine rescues? I have been following the events closely also. I'll admit to making my comments with heightened emotion, as well as assessing all of the information being given.

It's just an opinion and I'm quite frankly offended by your comments directed at myself and Braaiguy.

Regs

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#409167 24-Nov-2010 21:16

for all we know, it could have been one of the robots that set of the blast and the gas levels could have been that high the whole time. or perhaps the bore hole added oxygen into the mine so that the already high concentration of gas was now able to burn. i think that the mayors comments stating - like it was fact - that the the gas had built up over days and that was the cause was somewhat inflammatory given that he does not have the data and is not the expert in these things. we just dont have the data, so shouldnt really make assumptions, especially when we have no expertise.

if it turns out that 29 people had already died in the initial blast several days ago and people subsequently had gone in and died in a rescue mission, i fully expect that everyone would instead be arguing that they shouldnt have sent anyone in because it was obvious that it was too dangerous.

RIP miners and best wishes to families and all involved in the tradgedy.

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Klipspringer

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#409224 24-Nov-2010 22:40

marmel:
BraaiGuy:
Damager: They took too long I believe. I understand they didnt want to rush in before checking that everything was fine to enter.. Rushing is 1 day, they fiddled for 5 days and now there's no chance of survival.

There was a decent chance that this could have ended with a much better result. I feel for the families!

+101

Have you watched closeup tonight.

One of the local miners who knows the real facts about the event fully supported the rescue effort.

What rescue effort?????

robbyp

1199 posts

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#409226 24-Nov-2010 22:48

Regs: for all we know, it could have been one of the robots that set of the blast and the gas levels could have been that high the whole time. or perhaps the bore hole added oxygen into the mine so that the already high concentration of gas was now able to burn. i think that the mayors comments stating - like it was fact - that the the gas had built up over days and that was the cause was somewhat inflammatory given that he does not have the data and is not the expert in these things. we just dont have the data, so shouldnt really make assumptions, especially when we have no expertise.

if it turns out that 29 people had already died in the initial blast several days ago and people subsequently had gone in and died in a rescue mission, i fully expect that everyone would instead be arguing that they shouldnt have sent anyone in because it was obvious that it was too dangerous.

RIP miners and best wishes to families and all involved in the tradgedy.

I think they said in the press conference that the blast didn't occur in the entry tunnel which is where the two robots were, it occurred far further in.

Klipspringer

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#409232 24-Nov-2010 23:01

Damager:
corksta: After reading all these comments it's obvious Damager and Braaiguy are two people who are not reading the facts about this incident and believe they know more than the 65 experts who are at the site.

It doesn't matter what people say, Damager and Braaiguy will always know better - must be all the mine rescues they've been personally involved in.

That's a silly comment to make corksta. For someone trusted, that's an inappropriate comment to make.

It's just my thoughts, and I stand by them, did i say anywhere and please quote me, where I said that i have personally been involved in any mine rescues? I have been following the events closely also. I'll admit to making my comments with heightened emotion, as well as assessing all of the information being given.

It's just an opinion and I'm quite frankly offended by your comments directed at myself and Braaiguy.

Corksta. The non existent rescue attempt is an insult to the family of each and every miner killed in this tragedy. Nobody knows what was going on down there. Nobody could say if the people were still alive. Fact is, there was a chance that some of them could have still been alive. Maybe severely injured and burnt, but possibly still alive. Maybe some of them were klinging onto the hope of a rescue - Sadly it never came. After the second explosion, we will never know what actually happened down there. All evidence of life would have been wiped out. We may not know how many survived the first explosion. And I tell you what, should the evidence show that some did indeed survive, heads need to roll.

The way this whole thing has been handled is an embarrassment. Where was the emergency planning? These sort of accidents happen all the time. Why were they so unprepared? Why did we have to fly in special meters and robots from other countries? To many whys... 5 days of nothing happening.... Hell did these miners know how dangerous their job was? Is it OK to be a miner (because that's your job), but its not OK to be someone who goes in to rescue them, thats just too dangerous... ??

But you right.... maybe i know better.

corksta

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#409243 25-Nov-2010 00:06

Damager:
corksta: After reading all these comments it's obvious Damager and Braaiguy are two people who are not reading the facts about this incident and believe they know more than the 65 experts who are at the site.

It doesn't matter what people say, Damager and Braaiguy will always know better - must be all the mine rescues they've been personally involved in.

That's a silly comment to make corksta. For someone trusted, that's an inappropriate comment to make.

It's just my thoughts, and I stand by them, did i say anywhere and please quote me, where I said that i have personally been involved in any mine rescues? I have been following the events closely also. I'll admit to making my comments with heightened emotion, as well as assessing all of the information being given.

It's just an opinion and I'm quite frankly offended by your comments directed at myself and Braaiguy.

Trusted status doesn't really apply in an off-topic forum and has nothing to do with this thread.

Don't be offended there are many people around the country saying the exact same thing as you, I'm just disagreeing with it.

Braaiguy is bagging the police, you're saying they took too long. The fact is you (and every other un-informed critic) aren't there at the site, you're not an expert in mines, you have absolutely zero basis for saying they should have entered sooner. The NZH reported there are 65 experts from around the world at that site. They agreed it was too dangerous to enter, are you saying they were wrong?

Have a read about CIMS, or the Co-ordinated Incident Management System, which is what all emergency services in NZ use to manage an incident. In this case the police were the lead agency, but they were predominantly just a front for the media, all of the advice about whether to enter the mine or not came from the experts, the police officer in charge simply made a final decision based on that advice - he's hardly going to say "you guys don't know what you're talking about, I'm sending the rescue teams in". Of course it's presented in the media that the police are making all the decisions, the media dislike the police and look for any opportunity to slam them, but the reality is they were not the sole decision maker, yet a lot of the anger is directed at the police because it seems to be the thing to do these days.

Either way they were screwed. If they went in and caused the second explosion it would be comments like: "stupid police, they're all cowboys and make dumb decisions without thinking, surprised they didn't give the robot a speeding ticket". They didn't go in based on the advice so now it's "stupid police, too PC and by-the-book to do anything".

You can have an opinion, we're all entitled to that, but people who say they should have gone in straight away are just armchair critics, and in NZ we seem to have a lot of them any time a serious incident occurs.

Dratsab

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#409245 25-Nov-2010 00:08

Damager: They took too long I believe. I understand they didnt want to rush in before checking that everything was fine to enter.. Rushing is 1 day, they fiddled for 5 days and now there's no chance of survival.

There was a decent chance that this could have ended with a much better result. I feel for the families

Aside from the fact the first person at the mine got there about an hour after it occurred was an electrical engineer investigating a power outage - as SpookyAwol alludes, who exactly was there to go rushing in?

As for decent chance? Either you haven't seen the CCTV from the original blast or you don't understand it's implications (not forgetting to factor in explosive effects and the distances involved on both sides of the seat of the explosion).

old3eyes: I suspect that now after the explosion is the safest time. Minimal gas build up. This is what they should have done last Friday nite..

Firstly, I suspect you are right - the oxygen has been burnt up as well. Secondly, again - who was there to "go rushing in"?

sleemanj: No, the point is that after ONLY 5 days we are at 95%. THAT tells you just how damn fast it refilled. 95% is actually a lot safer than lesser quantities, as you would of course know, oxygen is required for combustion, 95% methane won't be exploding, but it could burn.

Actually no it won't burn, not once the oxygen level depletes below around 18%. From memory the upper explosive limit (UEL) for methane is around 17%, with it's lower explosive limit being around 5%. That said, at the fringe of the gas bubble the mix of methane in a natural oxygen atmosphere will easily be within this band.

There is talk ther is a fire burning deep within the mine which is providing a source of ignition for explosions. The times explosions will occur is when the methane levels fall between the LEL and UEL around this fire and the oxygen percentage is 18+. The depth and extent of any such fire is unknown as is the depth and extent of methane emission(s). Thus, predictions of future explosions are not possible. Could be tomorrow, could be a week, could be never...

@marmel and corksta: People have a right to express their opinions, no matter how uninformed (or perceived to be). Let's keep it seemly and discuss the subject rather than attack persons making comments.

Damager

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#409248 25-Nov-2010 00:23

@marmel and corksta: People have a right to express their opinions, no matter how uninformed (or perceived to be). Let's keep it seemly and discuss the subject rather than attack persons making comments.

Thanks for that Dratsab.

This is what I found offensive. I don't have a problem with corksta or anyone disagreeing with my comments. The issue here is that it was an unecessary personal attack on myself and Braaiguy for expressing our opinions. Personal attacks on other users are in breach of the Geekzone FUG, regardless of the forum.

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