New Auckland harbour crossing

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#3493750 19-May-2026 13:30

MikeAqua:

More of pipe dream. That said .... birds can fly en-masse in three dimensions with very little processing power and not collide.

Off topic, but this is just another reason why I think LLMs are a dead end as far as the search for true AI goes. Birds don't need 50kW of GPUs.

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pdh

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#3493765 19-May-2026 14:39

KiwiSurfer:

The current northern busway service is already at capacity with fully packed standing room only double deckers on NX1/NX2 running every 2-3 mins at peak so the assertion that light rail is an obsession is a bit strange. In a way current demand already justifies the need for high capacity than what can be provided even with high frequency double decker buses.

I would agree that the current bridge is at capacity - but not the busway.
If vehicles are going along it with a 2 minute gap between them - then you can easily double its capacity - and then double it again.
So four times the capacity it's got now.
Even at two vehicles a minute - come on, the busway itself is laughably empty at peak.

Handle9

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#3493768 19-May-2026 14:47

pdh:

KiwiSurfer:

The current northern busway service is already at capacity with fully packed standing room only double deckers on NX1/NX2 running every 2-3 mins at peak so the assertion that light rail is an obsession is a bit strange. In a way current demand already justifies the need for high capacity than what can be provided even with high frequency double decker buses.

I would agree that the current bridge is at capacity - but not the busway.
If vehicles are going along it with a 2 minute gap between them - then you can easily double its capacity - and then double it again.
So four times the capacity it's got now.
Even at two vehicles a minute - come on, the busway itself is laughably empty at peak.

Good to see that you know more about busways than the engineers. We all know you can increase capacity by hand waving and reckons.

jameshammond

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#3493769 19-May-2026 14:56

I'd like to know if it would be worth shifting the sugar factory, as maybe the cost saving of building a lower bridge would offset shifting the factory, given that the reason the harbour bridge is so high is so ships can deliver sugar.

Handle9

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#3493770 19-May-2026 14:56

MikeAqua:

Rail won't scale for public transport in this country with our topography and small population. Within Auckland and Welly, sure. Probably not within ChCh. Between regions, with the possible exception of Auckland and Hamilton .... forget it.

Auckland can't even get a decent connection to the airport going.

This discussion is about the Auckland Harbour bridge / transport network not intercity rail or something else.

Ridiculous scope creep is why the rail connection to the airport didn't happen, not because it was a flawed concept.

pdh

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#3493786 19-May-2026 15:21

Handle9:

It all sounds so easy until the real world gets in the way.

Driverless trains have a massive amount of testing to ensure they are reliable in an almost completely controlled environment. Cars are orders of magnitude harder to control and the idea the vehicle fleet will be autonomous in 15 years time is laughable.

The reality of quality transport in medium to large cities is multimodal. Trains move large quantities of people quickly across high traffic areas while buses and taxis provide “last mile” services.

Roads can never scale the same way rail scales. It’s pretty basic maths reallly.

"I told Wilbur & Orville...'

It's only laughable if you don't keep up... it's already happening.

Big trucks are running real-world distances - driverless - in Texas & Arizona.
Medium distance trucks are operating in Arkansas, Texas & Arizona.
Fully autonomous taxis are running in _many_ cities from California to Florida.
Cities with an aggregate population of 30 M.
Then add Wuhan, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai - running now.
London, Abu Dhabi & Tokyo.... training now.

I think it's got a bit beyond sci-fi, while you weren't paying attention.

30 years ago - you couldn't send an email.
20 years ago - you couldn't buy a smartphone.
15 Years ago - you couldn't buy a decent EV

PS: I was there for the huge debate on whether to go driverless in Montreal's new subway system.
It didn't happen - only because of the bus-driver's union.
That was 60 years ago in 1966.
The trains serving 23 stations on Montreal's newer REM (from three years ago) are all driverless.

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SaltyNZ

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#3493787 19-May-2026 15:24

pdh:
Even at two vehicles a minute - come on, the busway itself is laughably empty at peak.

The road is. The stations are not. Buses are already tripping over each other trying to get in and out.

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

Earbanean

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#3493789 19-May-2026 15:27

jameshammond:

I'd like to know if it would be worth shifting the sugar factory, as maybe the cost saving of building a lower bridge would offset shifting the factory, given that the reason the harbour bridge is so high is so ships can deliver sugar.

Navy ships also come under the bridge to load ammunition at Kauri Point. That could definitely be moved, but obviously not to Devonport.

richms

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#3493790 19-May-2026 15:27

Perhaps a good use of all that land that is being cleared with the removal of legacy broadcast towers out west would be to build a decent size bus interchange with rail upgradability in mind? Seems a more useful thing than just more shoebox low density housing which is what I saw was the plan.

Richard rich.ms

MikeAqua

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#3493792 19-May-2026 15:34

Handle9:

This discussion is about the Auckland Harbour bridge / transport network not intercity rail or something else.

Ridiculous scope creep is why the rail connection to the airport didn't happen, not because it was a flawed concept.

You introduced rail, as a subject 😄. I was musing about possible future implementations of cars, which was vaguely on topic.

Mike

MikeAqua

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#3493793 19-May-2026 15:39

SaltyNZ:

MikeAqua:

.... birds can fly en-masse in three dimensions with very little processing power and not collide.

Off topic, but this is just another reason why I think LLMs are a dead end as far as the search for true AI goes. Birds don't need 50kW of GPUs.

Dragon flies are even cooler from a processing efficiency perspective. They pursue flying prey with an astonishing success rate, with relatively simple but highly refined neurology.

Mike

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pdh

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#3493796 19-May-2026 15:50

Handle9:

pdh:

I would agree that the current bridge is at capacity - but not the busway.
If vehicles are going along it with a 2 minute gap between them - then you can easily double its capacity - and then double it again.
So four times the capacity it's got now.
Even at two vehicles a minute - come on, the busway itself is laughably empty at peak.

Good to see that you know more about busways than the engineers. We all know you can increase capacity by hand waving and reckons.

Well, I am an engineer - and it would be refreshing if you did anything more than wave _your_ hands and say it can't be done...

Busways do run at 1 minute intervals (eg: Bogata) - or much tighter if they use Platooning (several individual buses forming a tight 'train').

Having used the busway myself, as well as about 20 similar bus & rail systems in other cities, I would say ours is critically throttled by poor parking facilities, by poor secondary road/bus networks and critically by the huge bottleneck of the existing harbour bridge.
Which is why I suggested a closely paralleled 2-laner to extend dedicated lanes from the 'northern bit' to Fanshawe street.

Removing that bottleneck might allow us to double the use of our buses in each rush hour.
Twice the number of trips with the same fleet is probably optimistic - but it would be significant.

Future use by additional FSD vehicles would help with both the parking and the bus feeder networks - if not the poor arterials.

Handle9

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#3493798 19-May-2026 16:01

pdh:

Handle9:

It all sounds so easy until the real world gets in the way.

Driverless trains have a massive amount of testing to ensure they are reliable in an almost completely controlled environment. Cars are orders of magnitude harder to control and the idea the vehicle fleet will be autonomous in 15 years time is laughable.

The reality of quality transport in medium to large cities is multimodal. Trains move large quantities of people quickly across high traffic areas while buses and taxis provide “last mile” services.

Roads can never scale the same way rail scales. It’s pretty basic maths reallly.

"I told Wilbur & Orville...'

It's only laughable if you don't keep up... it's already happening.

Big trucks are running real-world distances - driverless - in Texas & Arizona.
Medium distance trucks are operating in Arkansas, Texas & Arizona.
Fully autonomous taxis are running in _many_ cities from California to Florida.
Cities with an aggregate population of 30 M.
Then add Wuhan, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai - running now.
London, Abu Dhabi & Tokyo.... training now.

I think it's got a bit beyond sci-fi, while you weren't paying attention.

30 years ago - you couldn't send an email.
20 years ago - you couldn't buy a smartphone.
15 Years ago - you couldn't buy a decent EV

PS: I was there for the huge debate on whether to go driverless in Montreal's new subway system.
It didn't happen - only because of the bus-driver's union.
That was 60 years ago in 1966.
The trains serving 23 stations on Montreal's newer REM (from three years ago) are all driverless.

Driverless trains are orders of magnitude easier than nose to tail 100km/hr vehicles. It's a closed system.

The facts get in the way as usual. New Zealands vehicle fleet has an average age of 15 years. The fantasy that in 15 years time you will have a fully automonous fleet capable of nose to tail 100km/hr roadways is just that. It's the nuclear fusion fantasy all over again.

A mixed mode transport system is the way for the forseeable future.

Handle9

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#3493799 19-May-2026 16:04

pdh:

Handle9:

Good to see that you know more about busways than the engineers. We all know you can increase capacity by hand waving and reckons.

Well, I am an engineer - and it would be refreshing if you did anything more than wave _your_ hands and say it can't be done...

Busways do run at 1 minute intervals (eg: Bogata) - or much tighter if they use Platooning (several individual buses forming a tight 'train').

Having used the busway myself, as well as about 20 similar bus & rail systems in other cities, I would say ours is critically throttled by poor parking facilities, by poor secondary road/bus networks and critically by the huge bottleneck of the existing harbour bridge.
Which is why I suggested a closely paralleled 2-laner to extend dedicated lanes from the 'northern bit' to Fanshawe street.

Removing that bottleneck might allow us to double the use of our buses in each rush hour.
Twice the number of trips with the same fleet is probably optimistic - but it would be significant.

Future use by additional FSD vehicles would help with both the parking and the bus feeder networks - if not the poor arterials.

I'm not waving my hands and saying it can't be done. I'm saying the system is reaching capacity.

They are two quite different things just as saying the road is not 100% utilized therefore the busway is not at capacity is not the same thing. The roadway/railway is never the constraint it's always the stations and approaches/departures.

pdh

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#3493808 19-May-2026 16:19

SaltyNZ:

pdh:
Even at two vehicles a minute - come on, the busway itself is laughably empty at peak.

The road is. The stations are not. Buses are already tripping over each other trying to get in and out.

Yes that's NZ planning for you.
I don't blame the engineers - but the politicians do insist on building infrastructure for yesterday and then spending four times as much upgrading.
Car parks for 300 vehicles (or none at Smales) and bus stations that can't handle the flow.
There are 6 stations - with a total dedicated parking capability of 3300 cars.
Think about that.
York's park & ride, for example has 5000 parks at its 6 stations.
York, UK was the last park n ride I used - so it came to mind.
Note that York has a city population about 1/8th Auckland's.)

So it's the station facilities for people and cars that will need upgrading - if we don't bring FSD vehicles in to bypass both completely.

I live 1.7 km from the busway (crow-flight) and 7.5 km by road to Albany station.
Unfortunately, I'm also 3.5 km from the nearest feeder bus stop.
Which at my age is a barrier.
So, many in our little community drive & park - or get driven & dropped off.

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