Electoral Party most likely to do something about Auckland housing bubble?

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#1541206 24-Apr-2016 16:33

I commented on CGT because I believe in it and have seen it in action, for what it is actually designed for, which is not to slow prices. The reason I didnt comment on Stamp Duty is I never really understood its purpose.

Which coffers does stamp duty go into? I even dont like the name haha, it sounds like you are paying money for someone to stamp something.

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#1541212 24-Apr-2016 16:38

Geektastic:
wsnz:

The bottom line is this: has Australia's CGT & Stamp Duty on housing eliminated or even moderated house prices? If not, then why do many persist in proclaiming this as the solution to NZ's housing issues?

Anyone who thinks Stamp Duty will benefit anyone but the IRD should try buying a house in London or any other major British city.

It does nothing to moderate prices and I for one see no need to make us all pay more tax.

A land tax is a more effective instrument than a stamp duty. Largely yes, it's just a tax for nothing. But any tax does have demand implications, though perhaps minor.

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#1541213 24-Apr-2016 16:49

sbiddle:

All those talk of "fixing" Auckland makes me wonder what people actually mean. What is the "fix" that people speak of?

An immediate (as in even over a 2-3 year period) 25% drop in Auckland property prices would probably put the entire country into a very dark place. You would have tens of thousands of people defaulting on mortgages, banks being hurt baldy, and a council with revenue that would crash.

I am inclined to agree. Supply and demand. Everyone seems happy. Buyers getting what they are prepared to pay for, sellers happy. How much of this is artificial? I feel asian immigrants are artificially pushing it up an amount. The wealthy ones who sent kids here, they follow or come also. I think adults need money behind them to satisfy points for PR.

But. at the end of the day, AKL is the place to be and buyers are paying. Its one thing to regulate or intervene, but if its a price change due to natural means, that can cause repercussions when artificial means are used to suppress natural desire.

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#1541222 24-Apr-2016 17:03

TeaLeaf:
I commented on CGT because I believe in it and have seen it in action, for what it is actually designed for, which is not to slow prices. The reason I didnt comment on Stamp Duty is I never really understood its purpose.

Which coffers does stamp duty go into? I even dont like the name haha, it sounds like you are paying money for someone to stamp something.

That is precisely what you are doing. To be legally valid, the agreements used to have to have (and may still) official stamps affixed.

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#1541226 24-Apr-2016 17:12

tdgeek:

I am inclined to agree. Supply and demand. Everyone seems happy. Buyers getting what they are prepared to pay for, sellers happy. How much of this is artificial? I feel asian immigrants are artificially pushing it up an amount. The wealthy ones who sent kids here, they follow or come also. I think adults need money behind them to satisfy points for PR.

But. at the end of the day, AKL is the place to be and buyers are paying. Its one thing to regulate or intervene, but if its a price change due to natural means, that can cause repercussions when artificial means are used to suppress natural desire.

I suspect people are paying way more than they otherwise would simply because they see capital gains as continuing to be insanely profitable. People feel that as long as they can cover, or at least close to cover the interest costs of the mortgage with rental income they are fine.

But if (when) interest rates rise, or economic factors change in that prices aren't rising and therefore they have a massively leveraged asset that's not making any returns (or maybe negative returns) then a lot of people are in a lot of trouble,

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#1541237 24-Apr-2016 17:34

TeaLeaf:

littleheaven:

I purchased my little 3-bed townhouse in Glenfield in 1996 for $222,000, and I thought I was being royally ripped off at the time - prices were at a bit of a peak. I think it did dip below the original purchase price very slightly at one point, but it's now worth around $750,000 which seems silly for a modest little place on a cross-leased section on the south side of a hill. I thought it was about right when it was hovering in the low $400,000's to be honest.

i lived there a wee while a decade earlier. good honest working mans suburb.

when i moved back to NZ I couldnt believe the suburbs and money people were asking, and the suburbs people were proud to live in, ponsonby, onehunga, beachlands, ok ill stop at beachlands lol.

but its no different when my grandad lived in Panmure all way up to point england was well to do. who knows, it may well change again in half a century.

doing the old school way, id draw a line at 96 add 6-7% per annum and thats what I personally think your property is worth. Auckland hasnt degraded nor has it gotten remarkably better. so i think your property is likely worth that based on the calcs I just did.

but that doesnt account for what people can afford.

and the big problem i see in Auckland is salaries vs cashed up overseas buyers. salaries cant buy them, barely. then someone overseas buys it leaves it empty and we claim we have a housing shortage.

It's not a bad spot - when Mum & Dad arrived in 72 they could buy there or Browns Bay for exactly the same price, but Browns Bay was considered too far out. No motorway past Tristram Ave in those days. I've lived here for over 40 years and it's been a bit sad to see it decline of late, but hopefully one of the good things about this inflated market is that people will buy here because it's still marginally affordable, and do places up. There's been a lot of renovating going on in our street and those around it. So there's a silver lining.

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#1541278 24-Apr-2016 17:50

ajobbins:

tdgeek:

I am inclined to agree. Supply and demand. Everyone seems happy. Buyers getting what they are prepared to pay for, sellers happy. How much of this is artificial? I feel asian immigrants are artificially pushing it up an amount. The wealthy ones who sent kids here, they follow or come also. I think adults need money behind them to satisfy points for PR.

But. at the end of the day, AKL is the place to be and buyers are paying. Its one thing to regulate or intervene, but if its a price change due to natural means, that can cause repercussions when artificial means are used to suppress natural desire.

I suspect people are paying way more than they otherwise would simply because they see capital gains as continuing to be insanely profitable. People feel that as long as they can cover, or at least close to cover the interest costs of the mortgage with rental income they are fine.

But if (when) interest rates rise, or economic factors change in that prices aren't rising and therefore they have a massively leveraged asset that's not making any returns (or maybe negative returns) then a lot of people are in a lot of trouble,

For sure there will be speculators. Those that are genuine kiwi buyers, who know there is a bubble, have taken a risk. If interest rates increase they will have to deal with it. If they lose equity, thats pretty much tough, its not like a bubble may not burst. Im not sure what happens if say prices dropped 15% in a bubble burst, and some go to negative equity. Can they stay in and just pay the mortgage as planned?

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#1541281 24-Apr-2016 17:53

mattwnz:

Outside London, properties in the UK are actually quite affordable compared to NZ.

All of southern England is expensive, and areas around Manchester but yes other areas are affordable. Wales can be relatively cheap.

Outside the Auckland region properties are reasonably affordable as well even by NZ standards. There are expensive pockets here and there (Blenheim for example) but a 3 bed house on a reasonable size section in Timaru is around $280,000.

Problem is none of you want to live in Timaru.

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#1541283 24-Apr-2016 17:58

News today is an AKL housing crisis, worse than leaky homes. Talk of foreign buyers, etc. Sydney and Melbourne have the same issue apparently. A lot of media publicity would be a good thing. Allow speculators, genuine buyers, foreigners to step back if any legislation makes it undesirable, and pricing eases. Tempering desire is a good thing. Let AKL house prices stay as they are, rather than a burst

EDIT the issue is shoddy building in AKL. High failure rate for inspections during a build. 30 to 40%

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#1541284 24-Apr-2016 18:03

The reason there are apparently so many investors is that there is simply nowhere else to put your money at the moment.

Deposit and bond returns are laughable and I won't touch the share market. Same as going to Ellerslie or Riccarton and having a punt on the 2.30.

If it was possible for the Central Bank to raise interest rates sufficiently it would have the dual effect of making mortgages harder to service, potentially cooling the housing market, and deposit and bond returns would improve so people would switch out of property.

Can't see that happening anytime soon though.

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#1541286 24-Apr-2016 18:06

ajobbins:

tdgeek:

I am inclined to agree. Supply and demand. Everyone seems happy. Buyers getting what they are prepared to pay for, sellers happy. How much of this is artificial? I feel asian immigrants are artificially pushing it up an amount. The wealthy ones who sent kids here, they follow or come also. I think adults need money behind them to satisfy points for PR.

But. at the end of the day, AKL is the place to be and buyers are paying. Its one thing to regulate or intervene, but if its a price change due to natural means, that can cause repercussions when artificial means are used to suppress natural desire.

I suspect people are paying way more than they otherwise would simply because they see capital gains as continuing to be insanely profitable. People feel that as long as they can cover, or at least close to cover the interest costs of the mortgage with rental income they are fine.

But if (when) interest rates rise, or economic factors change in that prices aren't rising and therefore they have a massively leveraged asset that's not making any returns (or maybe negative returns) then a lot of people are in a lot of trouble,

I suspect a lot of it also comes down to greed. People see that houses are a safe investment. But the fact is that a house is just a place to live in. If you come out of it making some capital gain, then that is just a bonus. Often people don't though, they spend more doing it up, maintenance, rates etc, than they sell it for especially outside Auckland. Wellington is starting to bubble again, over the last 6 months, house prices have really gone up, as there are a lot of buyers out there. Probably people from Auckland moving and willing to pay over the market value.

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#1541292 24-Apr-2016 18:13

Geektastic:

The only taxes on property specifically are Stamp Duty and the equivalent of rates. The other taxes you mention apply to other assets as well.

And property outside London is no more affordable than here unless you're prepared to live in the boonies. Anywhere within commuting distance of a major conurbation in SE England is likely to be at or above Auckland. My mother's house, for example, is 45 minutes by train to London but not in London. It cost the equivalent of $1.1 million two years ago and is a two bedroom detached bungalow on about 1600 square metres.

45 minutes by train to london is still london, as that is really close timewise. It takes me longer than that by train into Wellington, and I am in the Wellington region. My cousin travels for about 1.5 hours each way by train and his house is still considered in the London region. Even in Auckland people are travelling well over an hour to get to work, basically because the transport is so bad.

The problem with Auckland housing crisis, is many different things, it is really a perfect storm. But one of those is the lack of competition in the building materials market, making it very expensive to build. Then you have all the regulation, and new safety and liability laws around building etc.

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#1541294 24-Apr-2016 18:16

SJB:

The reason there are apparently so many investors is that there is simply nowhere else to put your money at the moment.

Deposit and bond returns are laughable and I won't touch the share market. Same as going to Ellerslie or Riccarton and having a punt on the 2.30.

If it was possible for the Central Bank to raise interest rates sufficiently it would have the dual effect of making mortgages harder to service, potentially cooling the housing market, and deposit and bond returns would improve so people would switch out of property.

Can't see that happening anytime soon though.

Why wouldn't you touch the sharemarket? If you have Kiwisaver, much of it is invested in shares/equities.

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#1541315 24-Apr-2016 19:06

tdgeek:
ajobbins:

tdgeek:

I am inclined to agree. Supply and demand. Everyone seems happy. Buyers getting what they are prepared to pay for, sellers happy. How much of this is artificial? I feel asian immigrants are artificially pushing it up an amount. The wealthy ones who sent kids here, they follow or come also. I think adults need money behind them to satisfy points for PR.

But. at the end of the day, AKL is the place to be and buyers are paying. Its one thing to regulate or intervene, but if its a price change due to natural means, that can cause repercussions when artificial means are used to suppress natural desire.

I suspect people are paying way more than they otherwise would simply because they see capital gains as continuing to be insanely profitable. People feel that as long as they can cover, or at least close to cover the interest costs of the mortgage with rental income they are fine.

But if (when) interest rates rise, or economic factors change in that prices aren't rising and therefore they have a massively leveraged asset that's not making any returns (or maybe negative returns) then a lot of people are in a lot of trouble,

For sure there will be speculators. Those that are genuine kiwi buyers, who know there is a bubble, have taken a risk. If interest rates increase they will have to deal with it. If they lose equity, thats pretty much tough, its not like a bubble may not burst. Im not sure what happens if say prices dropped 15% in a bubble burst, and some go to negative equity. Can they stay in and just pay the mortgage as planned?

Unfortunately, the "bubble" doom story's been around since 2003. There are many places in the world where bubbles have burst eg Ireland, and where it doesn't, e.g. Australasian cities.

But yes if it crashes, investors will buy more, first home buyers will sell to them at a big loss. That's the way it works.

tdgeek

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#1541317 24-Apr-2016 19:09

joker97:
tdgeek:

ajobbins:

tdgeek:

I am inclined to agree. Supply and demand. Everyone seems happy. Buyers getting what they are prepared to pay for, sellers happy. How much of this is artificial? I feel asian immigrants are artificially pushing it up an amount. The wealthy ones who sent kids here, they follow or come also. I think adults need money behind them to satisfy points for PR.

But. at the end of the day, AKL is the place to be and buyers are paying. Its one thing to regulate or intervene, but if its a price change due to natural means, that can cause repercussions when artificial means are used to suppress natural desire.

I suspect people are paying way more than they otherwise would simply because they see capital gains as continuing to be insanely profitable. People feel that as long as they can cover, or at least close to cover the interest costs of the mortgage with rental income they are fine.

But if (when) interest rates rise, or economic factors change in that prices aren't rising and therefore they have a massively leveraged asset that's not making any returns (or maybe negative returns) then a lot of people are in a lot of trouble,

For sure there will be speculators. Those that are genuine kiwi buyers, who know there is a bubble, have taken a risk. If interest rates increase they will have to deal with it. If they lose equity, thats pretty much tough, its not like a bubble may not burst. Im not sure what happens if say prices dropped 15% in a bubble burst, and some go to negative equity. Can they stay in and just pay the mortgage as planned?

Unfortunately, the "bubble" doom story's been around since 2003. There are many places in the world where bubbles have burst eg Ireland, and where it doesn't, e.g. Australasian cities.

But yes if it crashes, investors will buy more, first home buyers will sell to them at a big loss. That's the way it works.

Why will first home buyers sell? Will they have to? If the bank forecloses, there is still a loss, that the purchaser has to pay back, so why can't they keep the house and pay mortgage as usual as that is paying off the house new value and the negative equity. Bank can structure the mortgage so that negative equity is paid first?

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