Extinction Level Event Discussion

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networkn

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#144202 10-May-2014 22:55

I know there has been a Zombie discussion before, but I thought I'd open up a broader topic for general conversation.

I have been playing Last of Us (No spoilers thanks), but one thing that almost all Apocalyptic TV/Movies/Books and Media I have seen have in common is that no-one has any power. This led me to wonder
how long power would run before if there was no-one doing whatever is done to keep power on? I presume for obvious reasons that all power systems would largely be automatic, but on that same note, presume
maintenance is required for that. How long after say a biological event or similar which didn't destroy infrastructure do you think utilities would keep running?

I do wonder if Governments have lists of critical people that would be "collected" and put somewhere safe if such an event was to occur.

I am not inclined toward believing Zombies are likely to happen, but I think a strain of flu or something equally powerful could be a serious threat.

Feel free to post anything you might think is relevant to the discussion!

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#1041534 10-May-2014 23:07

Ok, so you are asking how long can you continue to play Last Of Us if a biological event wipes out the rest of the human race. I congratulate you for your forward thinking. ; ).

I'd give it a few days of on and off.

The coal fired stuff would run out relatively quickly. Hydro would last a lot longer I imagine depending on time of year but I'm thinking the massively unbalanced grid would likely blow out in several places way before hydro generation actually ceased. It's a very good question.

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#1041548 10-May-2014 23:51

Governments of serious nations like the USA do have plans, at least as far as the medium term.

NZ not so much. I used to work in that area here and, without going into areas NFPD, I can say that I was surprised by the low level of preparedness in relation to this sort of thing (even 'normal' non-extinction events) and the way that a 'terrorism doesn't happen here, this is New Zealand!" mindset coloured thinking in areas it should not have done. We did a lot of work to rectify that.

Here in NZ we are actually in a unique position being so far from any significant population. In the event of an ELE happening, survivors in NZ won't have to worry about hoardes of refugees or invaders from adjoining land borders etc and we are too far away for the average person to sail here. With wind, solar etc you could keep a Mad Max style generation system going for quite some while I would think. I am sure the national grid would fail within weeks at most - probably days.

In defence terms, I have always been of the view that NZ no longer needs an 'Army/Navy/Airforce' setup. A single force based on either the US Marine Corps or the US Coastguard makes more sense. The former if you wish to retain force projection overseas and the latter (more sensible IMV) if you accept we need no longer do that and can concentrate of defence of our borders, our maritime economy, SAR activity and so on.

The USCG model makes more sense to me from a natural disaster POV but I would add in some of the heavy cargo hovercraft that the USMC uses as a method of getting supplies landed where earthquakes etc have damaged roads and harbours.

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#1041596 11-May-2014 08:41

As far as true extinction level events (and I am not talking disease, war, sea levels, as these have the ability to effect human population level, but actual extinction would be difficult) I think the grey goo scenario is possibly one of the most likely, and if this did occur once it started there is very little we could do to stop it.

other possible events
mega volcanoes
asteroids
extra terrestrials
gas bubbles
nearby supernova

none of which we could do anything about

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#1041623 11-May-2014 10:30

Asssuming any Tsunami's less than 30M high and it's safe to come out within a year or so It's all good.

I'll pop across to the forestry and haul home a diesel trailer to supplement our generator tanks.
Trundle 6km down to the road junction in the excavator and trench across the access road, to prevent the starving hordes reaching us (but avoid digging up the new cell tower backhaul in case the infrastructure somehow stays working:)

Then it's just a matter of “hunker in the bunker” until the last radio signals/wandering survivors die out..

..of course if an End-of-times event doesn't happen all my planning and hard work's been wasted :(

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#1041625 11-May-2014 10:45

And don't forget - learn how to load your own ammo and make sure you have plenty of dry powder etc..!

oxnsox

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#1041634 11-May-2014 11:25

Power input into the national grid is, as I understand it, not a fully automated process. Supply must be balanced against demand, and with hydro based energy that means moniyoring and controlling flows.
Also with power able to go in either direction across Cook Strait, theres probably quite a bit of manual intervention/control in the load balance process.

But having said all that, if the wheels fell off the world then first things to be impacted would be local high energy users (businesses), because I'm pretty sure a lot of folk wouldn't turn up for work if they're fighting survival on their doorstep. ... Soo you may be able to sit down with a home brewed latte and watch the world end on your own tele, if you live in NZ

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#1041790 11-May-2014 17:33

For those who are curious, there is s planning document "NZ after nuclear war" by nz planing council which was written in the 1980's which looked into some issues.
Otago university had a copy which I read about 6 years ago.

A.

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#1041802 11-May-2014 18:24

afe66: For those who are curious, there is s planning document "NZ after nuclear war" by nz planing council which was written in the 1980's which looked into some issues.
Otago university had a copy which I read about 6 years ago.

A.

It's perplexing that back in the cold war days, people thought nuclear war was inevitable. Now, just because the cold war has ended - there's little risk?
Seems to me that compared with those days, we've got nuclear armed Pakistan, India, N Korea, Israel - probably more coming. Boris doesn't seem any more sane than cold-war era leaders of the USSR, and the reduction in arms stockpiles so that we can only blow ourselves up 70 times over rather than 100 times over doesn't give me much comfort. Systems might be better so that strategic targets might be able to taken out with less megatonnage, but in the end, in war, civilians will become the targets (again). It's nuts that they exist at all.

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#1041998 12-May-2014 09:58

Fred99:
afe66: For those who are curious, there is s planning document "NZ after nuclear war" by nz planing council which was written in the 1980's which looked into some issues.
Otago university had a copy which I read about 6 years ago.

A.

It's perplexing that back in the cold war days, people thought nuclear war was inevitable. Now, just because the cold war has ended - there's little risk?
Seems to me that compared with those days, we've got nuclear armed Pakistan, India, N Korea, Israel - probably more coming. Boris doesn't seem any more sane than cold-war era leaders of the USSR, and the reduction in arms stockpiles so that we can only blow ourselves up 70 times over rather than 100 times over doesn't give me much comfort. Systems might be better so that strategic targets might be able to taken out with less megatonnage, but in the end, in war, civilians will become the targets (again). It's nuts that they exist at all.

It is nuts.
However the likelihood now is a "limited nuclear war"
Probably just seeing the destruction of a couple major Middle Eastern/Indian/Pakistani cities, and the death of millions.
Still nuts.

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#1042000 12-May-2014 10:02

Climate change is the more probable cause of future mass population losses with famines more frequent and in more regions including developed regions.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#1042008 12-May-2014 10:12

Fred99:
afe66: For those who are curious, there is s planning document "NZ after nuclear war" by nz planing council which was written in the 1980's which looked into some issues.
Otago university had a copy which I read about 6 years ago.

A.

It's perplexing that back in the cold war days, people thought nuclear war was inevitable. Now, just because the cold war has ended - there's little risk?
Seems to me that compared with those days, we've got nuclear armed Pakistan, India, N Korea, Israel - probably more coming. Boris doesn't seem any more sane than cold-war era leaders of the USSR, and the reduction in arms stockpiles so that we can only blow ourselves up 70 times over rather than 100 times over doesn't give me much comfort. Systems might be better so that strategic targets might be able to taken out with less megatonnage, but in the end, in war, civilians will become the targets (again). It's nuts that they exist at all.

We also have missing briefcase nukes which could turn up anywhere.

Nations such as USA and UK have significant infrastructure dedicated to counter terrorism because they have been threatened (as one who lived under the PIRA threat for decades and who was 2 streets away from the Deal Barracks bombing when it happened I can testify to that). NZ I found when working in government was still very relaxed and she'll be right about it.

Australia seems to take this (and many other things!) a good deal more seriously.

I pointed out several times that terrorists look for easy targets. If the USA and Europe become too hard, they will seek targets of opportunity elsewhere. The US embassy in Wellington, for example, would probably be 'easy' in comparison to other options. The first terrorist attack on NZ soil (when, not if IMV) will cause some significant changes here regardless of whether it involves radioactivity.

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blackjack17

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#1042017 12-May-2014 10:21

Geektastic: The first terrorist attack on NZ soil (when, not if IMV) will cause some significant changes here regardless of whether it involves radioactivity.

We have had a terrorist attack

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#1042022 12-May-2014 10:27

I'd be really interested to hear what kind of personal preparations GZ peeps have made to help them cope with natural disasters, doomsday events, etc.

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#1042023 12-May-2014 10:29

some kind of super bug or flu is the one that freaks me out the most as it has happened not that long a go (1918).

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#1042025 12-May-2014 10:32

blackjack17:
Geektastic: The first terrorist attack on NZ soil (when, not if IMV) will cause some significant changes here regardless of whether it involves radioactivity.

We have had a terrorist attack

Rainbow warrior

Yeah, nah.

We elsewhere in the world regarded that as a victory for common sense, I can assure you. I was actually invited to a "Sink The Rainbow Warrior" dinner party at the time, as Greenpeace in the UK was regarded as a bunch of hippy PITA people.

Besides, French agents carrying out sanctioned activity on behalf of their government isn't terrorism.

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