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7020 posts

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#207301 18-Dec-2016 11:49
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So I was trying to figure out the lotto website, and the odds.

While the Lotto odds are clear for a $1 purchase:

38 million:1 for an average $9 million jackpot

or you're twice as likely to become a saint, than win a single line of lotto

For Keno, they don't publish the odds. It was hard to find anywhere in the world that does.

So here's the odds with a $1 purchase

4 million:1 for $250,000

or about the same odds as being born a billionaire

In the last 90 draws, no one has won more than $50,000 (not sure when last big keno win was)

My conclusion. The odds are close to zero for both, so if you're going to throw away your money, might as well throw it away on lotto.

Personal note: if you think there's a system to improve your odds, Google "gambler's fallacy"

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2192 posts

Uber Geek

  #1691704 18-Dec-2016 12:08
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take another look. All the odds are published in one PDF on their webpage...




7020 posts

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  #1691710 18-Dec-2016 12:19
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The highest odds for Keno posted are 1:9.1, which is obviously misleading.

Keno odds are complex, because you have
* number froms 1 through 80
* and 20 "balls"
* and 10 matches is the maximum

In other words, if you matched all 20 "balls", you be restricted to the maximum for one line $250,000

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  #1691713 18-Dec-2016 12:37
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What most people, including me, cannot get their heads around, is the fact that someone does win. Often it seems to be a young couple struggling to buy their first home, or an elderly one struggling to get by on the pension. And occasionally, someone thoroughly undeserving. For all these winners the odds are just as humongous, yet they overcame them. So why does ordinary Joe down the street win the jackpot instead of being struck three times by lightning? Odds don't really mean anything because if ordinary Joe can overcome them, then anyone can. This is what sells tickets. 



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