Sea surface temperature anomaly in NZ

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Fred99

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#225922 11-Dec-2017 18:27

This was in the news a few days ago. I believe the cause is a very strong La Nina condition - sea surface temperatures in the E Pacific equatorial region are actually lower than normal.

This is the current map from Earth.nullschool.net.

Water temperatures at our local beaches in Chch are now about 5 deg C above average for this time of year. It's very noticeable - I was swimming in NSW a couple of weeks ago, and due to easterly conditions, it was actually colder swimming at Bondi ("only" about 17 deg) than here (now about 20 deg C - which is almost tepid - well maybe not quite - but very pleasant for a swim). Combined with NE to NW conditions with temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s over the past couple of weeks, it feels like I'm in the wrong country.

I've got no idea if this is going to persist and for how long - and I'm sure that I've never experienced anything like this weather before at this time of year. Have been running the AC at home a lot - not looking forward to seeing the power bill.

Oblivian

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#1916944 11-Dec-2017 19:30

I knew they were high, but I didn't realise that high. Now kicking myself for not spending at least a bit of the weekend searching for bodyboarding conditions at Spencerville

On the down side, wonder how bad the bluebottles are going to be. no doubt headed our way

alasta

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#1916952 11-Dec-2017 20:06

I have been swimming at the south coast of Wellington a few times over the last couple of weeks and it still felt pretty cold, even by south coast standards.

Fred99

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#1916989 11-Dec-2017 20:39

alasta:

I have been swimming at the south coast of Wellington a few times over the last couple of weeks and it still felt pretty cold, even by south coast standards.

According to that earth.nullschool data the temp in Cook Strait is still about 1.5 deg above average for this time of year, but that's only about 16 deg now - vs 14.5 (brrrr). That (IMO) is quite cold-ish. The anomaly is much greater on the West Coast and ATM around the Cant'y coast.

Cook Strait is IMO very bloody cold - but it's normally the same here - fairly numbing until perhaps February. If I was going for a swim at this time of year in either place, I'd normally wear a summer weight wetsuit.

alasta

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#1916992 11-Dec-2017 20:46

Fred99:

alasta:

I have been swimming at the south coast of Wellington a few times over the last couple of weeks and it still felt pretty cold, even by south coast standards.

According to that earth.nullschool data the temp in Cook Strait is still about 1.5 deg above average for this time of year, but that's only about 16 deg now - vs 14.5 (brrrr). That (IMO) is quite cold-ish. The anomaly is much greater on the West Coast and ATM around the Cant'y coast.

Cook Strait is IMO very bloody cold - but it's normally the same here - fairly numbing until perhaps February. If I was going for a swim at this time of year in either place, I'd normally wear a summer weight wetsuit.

I just wear togs, and swim flat out until I warm up. It definitely keeps me fit!

tdgeek

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#1917013 11-Dec-2017 21:53

Yes, @Fred99 it is hot. I think your on Clifton Hill? I'm in Halswell. I had my childhood in AKL, and here in CHC, Summer was 28 most days, many days in low 30's, almost always one in HIGH 30's. Winter was many many days of hard frosts, a few wintery rainy days. These days I see summer as milder. When its 25 we complain. Winter I got told last winter was so cold, I found it mild as every recent winter. When I was a kid we never got snow, we might get slush (Cashmere on the flat). Now if we got 2 feet of snow, its not a huge surprise.

Re this weather, I read we went 46 days with no rain, and the high temps which is rare in Dec, tyoiccaly CHCH summer is more late Dec to Feb/March. I see this weather as a one off anomaly from Nth QLD, but is it global warming or just a cycle? The warm water will create more weather, maybe for us that means a wetter West Coast and more Nor'west? I am biased, I have hedge trimming to do (a lot) and plastering, so it aint great! But I see we have a week our more of low to mid 20's and rain. Im trying ti fix my lawn, so rain and no water restrictions are required!

Fred99

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#1917161 12-Dec-2017 09:36

We're on the hills Mt Pleasant way. Very nice to wake up to a cooler (17 deg) morning with the prospect of rain today.
It's good that the Chch water supply has been keeping up with the increased demand.

It's probably a cycle - La Nina / El Nino Southern oscillation. I have no idea if it's related to climate change.

Here's NOAA charts of the sea surface temperature anomaly for mid December for the past 3 years. So it was colder than average last year by 1 - 1.5 degrees, and warmer this year by 4-5 degrees. No wonder it's noticeable. I think this clearly shows the swing from El Nino to La Nina.

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Coil

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#1917165 12-Dec-2017 09:40

The Marlin will be loving this! Going out from Tutukaka this weekend on the boat.

trig42

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#1917177 12-Dec-2017 09:53

There was a bit of a plague of Bluebottles on Waiheke Northern beaches last week. Only a couple of days though.

Water is lovely and warm - I went swimming over the weekend and it would have been 20 degrees in the water. No Bluebottles either luckily.

MikeAqua

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#1917193 12-Dec-2017 10:09

Tuna! Tuna! Tuna! Oi! Oi! Oi!

The Naki kayak fishing lads will be loving this. The usually have to wait until Feb and paddle quite way out.

How long until we consistently get Mahimahi in NZ waters?

Mike

MikeAqua

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#1917197 12-Dec-2017 10:11

trig42:

There was a bit of a plague of Bluebottles on Waiheke Northern beaches last week. Only a couple of days though.

Water is lovely and warm - I went swimming over the weekend and it would have been 20 degrees in the water. No Bluebottles either luckily.

Those are caused by NW or NE storm winds pushing them down from the open pacific often along with violet snails.

Mike

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#1917201 12-Dec-2017 10:13

Can't wait for Gamefishing to arrive in the Hauraki Gulf.

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#1917253 12-Dec-2017 10:48

Spent most of the weekend surfing at port waikato and the water did seem very warm - all of us who went commented on it. I was almost too warm in a 3/2 steamer and was tempted to switch to boardies.

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