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123 posts

Master Geek

# 253058 23-Jul-2019 18:53
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I’ve been having a huge argument with my parents over this show and could use your help

I’m not overly familiar with this show but watched it tonight with celebrity player Jimmy Carr

At the end of the show He was offered the choice of cashing out what he had already banked and walking away with that or risking it for the jackpot.

He decided it wasn’t worth the risk and cashed out. At the end, they do the “what if” and played three counters to see what would have happened and in this instance the jackpot would have been won.

This is where the arguments started. My parents said “oh what a shame if he had continued playing, he would have won”

And I replied that’s wrong because there is no way to guarantee the outcome would have played out exactly the same if he had continued as it’s completely random with too many variables.

Either I’m wrong or I’m not explaining it to my parents correctly because they couldn’t understand where I was coming from.

Anyone smarter than me who watches the show care to weigh in?


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18094 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2282349 23-Jul-2019 18:58
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If you want to gamble...


Is that the show with counters that might overflow to top over more counters?


Its risk vs reward

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Uber Geek

  # 2282366 23-Jul-2019 19:38
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You are right in my view.  Too much randomness.


Take the lotto draw for instance.  Let's say the first ball out is 23.  I can guarantee that 39 times out of 40 if that same game had been started 30 seconds later the first ball out would not have been 23.

"I have noticed even people who claim everything is predestined, and that we can do nothing to change it, look before they cross the road." -  Stephen Hawking


222 posts

Master Geek

  # 2282369 23-Jul-2019 19:47
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time is a variable, different time different result, you are correct. 



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Uber Geek

  # 2282565 24-Jul-2019 08:29
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I'm with you on this one, but in my experience it's often not worth the hassle trying to explain randomness to people that don't already understand it.

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  # 2282658 24-Jul-2019 10:11
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I guess its not guaranteed, but surely its highly likely. It would take an external event to occur in the extra time taken before the three counters are played, which seems unlikely, if not impossible.


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  # 2282666 24-Jul-2019 10:22
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I've had a similar argument with my elderly parents...but my mum is one of those that "nearly" wins Lotto when six numbers are similar to what she had...i.e. she has 1, 3, 5, 7 and the numbers that win are 8, 14, 17 and 26. 





Handsome Dan Has Spoken.


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Lifetime subscriber

  # 2282715 24-Jul-2019 10:44
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You are obviously correct.


The counters behave in a random fashion so the bit at the end of the show to indicate what would have happened is just a time filler. 


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Master Geek

  # 2282726 24-Jul-2019 10:57
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Given the observed randomness of the counter paths down the pins, it's likely there's some slight variation in the drop mechanism that imparts random initial movement to the counter.

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Uber Geek

  # 2282744 24-Jul-2019 11:39
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Given that the player decides when the counter is released, and this can have a huge influence on the result, it's very unlikely that the player would have released the counters at the exact same instant as the "what-if" play (which I think isn't decided by the player?) would have.

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  # 2282746 24-Jul-2019 11:46
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I've seen people risk it all with an extra three counters. Sometimes it looks like a breath of wind would knock the big gold counter over the edge, but it still doesn't go and they lose it all.

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Uber Geek

  # 2282768 24-Jul-2019 12:18
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It makes me rage at the tv often.


People keep picking position based on the bottom row stacking, not the top that actually does the work. There will be a full 2/3-deep line on the top shelf, and they'll still go for the one that has 3 over-hanging the front but nothing on the top to push them over


And you know how you cant unsee one of those things when people point it out- 


Listen to the noises as camera shows the 'counters' move. Canned metal-on-metal shimmer :P recycling noise to make it sound like there is lots of sliding and bumping. When we know how much a diff sound even 2 washers hitting make

225 posts

Master Geek

  # 2282821 24-Jul-2019 13:56
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Yes I saw that show and you are right its is just random on the drop, if he had picked to go for the larger amount the outcome cold have been different i.e. a miss.


Time is the factor here, its like when you drive up the road and have car accident, if you left 10 seconds earlier or later you may no be in an accident.


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