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AlphaAlfalfaSprout

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#323869 28-Jan-2026 12:35
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House hunting in the North Shore has been a hellish experience. Recently they started adding landslide risk models to LIMs (you can also see it on GeoMaps), which has only made things worse. Don't get me wrong, part of me is glad they've done it. I used to look at the Tauranga ones and wish Auckland had them. But at the same time, a staggering number of properties are modelled as having high or very high slip risks. I would never buy a cliff house or one right on the edge of a gully, but there are so many that don't look risky at all in person yet have dire modelling. Am I supposed to write them all off? That, or spend ~$3K on geotech assessments for every property? (properties that I don't even know if I have a real chance at because they're all wretched auctions)

 

The more extreme weather events and slips that happen, the more it feels like I should be taking them seriously. But then that puts me at an extreme disadvantage because no one else seems to care.

 

The other depressing thing is seeing past slips recorded in the middle of supposedly low risk areas (according to the model), which undermines my confidence in the whole thing.


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Goosey
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  #3456682 28-Jan-2026 13:58
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Land moves.

 

moves more when hilly and wet.

 

When it’s flat, it might just shake from time to time.

 

if near the water….might erode

 

 

 

sorry, these comments are no help, but at least someone’s assessing stuff….if you want more accuracy then it gives you a base to go off to investigate more.

 

 




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  #3456687 28-Jan-2026 14:21
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I noticed a lot of marginal properties spring on to the market after our last major weather event caused a large number of slips resulting from the change in weather patterns. It looks like this is going to be a very big thing going forward.

I recall the government talking about pulling back from a compensation approach and moving towards something else.

Landslides are NZ's deadliest natural hazard apparently killing more people than volcanos and earthquakes combined. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/584886/the-mt-maunganui-tragedy-reminds-us-landslides-are-nz-s-deadliest-natural-hazard. If true that's a sobering thought and it's only going to get worse going forward.

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  #3456689 28-Jan-2026 14:37
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AlphaAlfalfaSprout: , a staggering number of properties are modelled as having high or very high slip risks. I would never buy a cliff house or one right on the edge of a gully, but there are so many that don't look risky at all in person yet have dire modelling. Am I supposed to write them all off? That, or spend ~$3K on geotech assessments for every property?

The geotech assessment. It's obvious that's the kind of thing the government intends. With the Mt Maunganui issue the other question is - will the government go around basically red-stickering super-serious high risk homes in anticipation of land failure?



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  #3456690 28-Jan-2026 14:49
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. But at the same time, a staggering number of properties are modelled as having high or very high slip risks. I would never buy a cliff house or one right on the edge of a gully, but there are so many that don't look risky at all in person yet have dire modelling. Am I supposed to write them all off? That, or spend ~$3K on geotech assessments for every property? (properties that I don't even know if I have a real chance at because they're all wretched auctions)

My guess is a built up suburban area is likely to have a lot of drainage already installed meaning the risks are somewhat mitigated. In some cases vegetation cover may also have some influence. I guess that's the problem - without a geotech assessment a non-expert isnt in a position to understand if the risks are already mitigated or what the price of mitigation might be.

Without a geotech engineer probably the best you can do is visit the property and apply some heuristics.

Edit: Imo initially just ask the vendor for a geotech report. They may have one already.

wellygary
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  #3456697 28-Jan-2026 15:08
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The problem the Councils have is that if they have the data, they are pretty much required to release it...

 

So after Gabrielle Auckland Council would undertaken a whole lot of surveying, and now that that they have it they've got to use it, or residents and Insurance companies will litigate if there is future slippage and the council was siting on a whole lot of risk data.....

 

AFAIK insurance companies are not using it for individual risk rating yet, but I would not be surprised to see them wanting to use it in the future,,,


kiwifidget
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  #3456769 28-Jan-2026 20:21
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wellygary:

 

AFAIK insurance companies are not using it for individual risk rating yet, but I would not be surprised to see them wanting to use it in the future,,,

 

 

And yet, when a family member was house hunting in the Welcome Bay area 18 months ago, they included insurance in their due diligence.

 

It was very difficult to get any insurance company to commit to covering anywhere in Welcome Bay, even relatively new builds.





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AlphaAlfalfaSprout

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  #3456773 28-Jan-2026 20:34
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kiwifidget:

 

wellygary:

 

AFAIK insurance companies are not using it for individual risk rating yet, but I would not be surprised to see them wanting to use it in the future,,,

 

 

And yet, when a family member was house hunting in the Welcome Bay area 18 months ago, they included insurance in their due diligence.

 

It was very difficult to get any insurance company to commit to covering anywhere in Welcome Bay, even relatively new builds.

 

 

 

 

I don't know about Welcome Bay, but we got quotes on a few of these slip modelled houses and the companies didn't seem to bat an eyelid. Nor for houses with extremely close flooding. (We never inquired about a property where the modelled flood plain intersected the actual structure, but one had a flood plain modelled all down one border with even some minor overlap on the property and they didn't care)

 

This doesn't reassure me at all, however. I figure just because they're willing to cover now doesn't mean they won't change their minds in 5 years. And at any moment the council could revise the models and turn formerly borderline slip/flood cases into ones that are "high risk". This already happened to people in Tauranga.


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  #3456821 28-Jan-2026 21:01
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wellygary:

 

AFAIK insurance companies are not using it for individual risk rating yet, but I would not be surprised to see them wanting to use it in the future,,,

 

 

Tower uses individual risk rating for landslides, as well as earthquake, flood, and sea surge.


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  #3456822 28-Jan-2026 21:01
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gzt: My guess is a built up suburban area is likely to have a lot of drainage already installed meaning the risks are somewhat mitigated. In some cases vegetation cover may also have some influence. I guess that's the problem - without a geotech assessment a non-expert isnt in a position to understand if the risks are already mitigated or what the price of mitigation might be.

 

You'd need local knowledge. Older areas are just as likely to have slips triggered by leaking sewer and drain pipes.


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  #3456870 29-Jan-2026 07:45
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gzt:

 


Landslides are NZ's deadliest natural hazard apparently killing more people than volcanos and earthquakes combined. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/584886/the-mt-maunganui-tragedy-reminds-us-landslides-are-nz-s-deadliest-natural-hazard. If true that's a sobering thought and it's only going to get worse going forward.

 

I've heard this said several times in the last few days but am struggling to find any evidence of it. 

 

Not to say I disbelieve it entirely or dismiss it as impossible, rather that it is an extraordinary claim which should have some kind of easily-verifiable research behind it. 


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  #3456952 29-Jan-2026 10:49
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Likewise I have not found the source. There is also a figure of 1800 deaths in lamdslides since records began. I'd want to know the status of for example that things like the Tangimoana train disaster mud volcanic lahar took out a bridge, which is not directly relevant to weather or subsidence related land movements.

Ah. With five minutes googling I've found this:

https://data.gns.cri.nz/landslides/

No time to look at it yet. It may or may not be relevant.

 
 
 
 

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  #3456953 29-Jan-2026 10:53
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The 1800 deaths figure is frequently quoted as originating from EQC:

"[Jo] Horrocks points out that GNS Science research has identified around 1800 fatalities from landslides over the past 160 years, which is significantly more than earthquakes casualties over the same period. She says that landslides cost the country an average of $250-$300 million each year."

https://www.nzgs.org/national-landslide-database

kiwifidget
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  #3458585 4-Feb-2026 09:53
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boosacnoodle:

 

wellygary:

 

AFAIK insurance companies are not using it for individual risk rating yet, but I would not be surprised to see them wanting to use it in the future,,,

 

 

Tower uses individual risk rating for landslides, as well as earthquake, flood, and sea surge.

 

 

And AA Insurance as well it seems.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/major-insurer-declines-new-home-insurance-policies-for-blenheim/XUUTVDR525GFRHY27LMLRDTPPQ/

 

"Blenheim residents say AA Insurance has stopped offering new home insurance policies in their town, following similar decisions in Westport and parts of greater Christchurch."





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  #3458623 4-Feb-2026 10:59
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That would be the opposite of individual risk rating. The article text actually says "temporary halt" so maybe they are gearing up to do individual risk rating.

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