NZ Herald and 'earthquake predictions'

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gzt

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#85434 19-Jun-2011 12:57

I cannot believe the herald printed this story with almost zero balance:

"Ring's quake-call right on"

Predicting earthquakes in an area of seismic activity guarantees success of some kind.

Further statistical analysis inevitably shows 'success' of these predictions to be based on a combination of chance and very flexible fudge factors.

Then again, maybe academics did not respond to Herald requests for comment. I would not blame them if they were just sick and tired of responding to this. Analytical debunking can be a time consuming and thankless task.

I do think it is a story worthy of printing and discussion - but it takes a serious popular science journalist to do a good job, and a fair job.

freitasm

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#482775 19-Jun-2011 13:00

Golden quotes:

"I'm still expecting a bit of earthquake risk around, or on, Monday to come from that in the Christchurch to Wellington region, plus or minus a day or so," Ring said on air.

Ring told the Herald on Sunday from his Auckland home that he had simply been picking up on the ramifications of weather patterns and he was not back in the game of forecasting what was going to happen to Christchurch.

"I just mentioned it as a global thing and whatever happened globally, if Christchurch is in the gun then it's going to show up where the pattern is operating," Ring said.

Seriously? Those sentences make no sense...

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kingjj

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#482783 19-Jun-2011 13:30

Do you think the Herald on Sunday would do a story on my earthquake predictions? Everytime my cars on E, i've just finished work and gone to bed and there's no food in the house there's an earthquake...

But seriously, the quality of Herald journalism has always been tabloidy. Their stories are the type that leave you with more questions than answers. Nice to see Ring is getting his 2 minutes in the limelight again.

gzt

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#482784 19-Jun-2011 13:38

Just noticed the NZ Skeptics Society now has a page up on Ken Ring and Earthquake Predictions.

keewee01

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#482795 19-Jun-2011 14:11

Why can't this guy just crawl away under a rock somewhere and die! Sigh.

sbiddle

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#482797 19-Jun-2011 14:14

Right now I'll predict that on Tuesday there will be a magnitude 4 or greater earthquake hit the Canterbury region. I hope the NZ Herald gives me credit for this prediction next week when it comes true.

What am I basing that on? Published stats that already show predictions of between 11 and 28 (with an average of 19) magnitude 4 or greater quakes between the 13th June and July 12th. So far 11 have occured.

http://www.geonet.org.nz/canterbury-quakes/aftershocks/

Oblivian

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#482800 19-Jun-2011 14:31

And felt every bloody one of them :(

I think our tally is nearing 4000 (if not gone past) 'feelable' and nearly 7000 tremors

scuwp

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#482813 19-Jun-2011 15:19

I don't get it. We have a couple of wannabe celebrity psychics who 'see dead people' and we celebrate their 'talents' even though there is no scientific basis for their 'skills'. Yet we give them their own TV show or two, public shows etc etc and applaud their unproven abilities'

Along comes Mr Ring who uses a different scientific methodology than mainstream scence accepts to have a go at predicting certain events in the world (and pretty much gets them right) and he gets called a crackpot, gets threatened, and has to go into hiding.

Double standards?

Give him his own TV series I reckon!

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity - Robert J Hanlon

gzt

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#482814 19-Jun-2011 15:19

I wonder if this kind of thing from K.Ring etc is just filling a vacuum where science should be. Is there much scientific information being provided in Christchurch over this period? Like public talks about aftershocks, local & neighborhood geology etc?

sbiddle

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#482822 19-Jun-2011 16:03

gzt: I wonder if this kind of thing from K.Ring etc is just filling a vacuum where science should be. Is there much scientific information being provided in Christchurch over this period? Like public talks about aftershocks, local & neighborhood geology etc?

The data is certainly there, and IMHO considering we still can't predict earthquakes the accuracy of these aftershock predictions has been amazingly accurate.

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#482844 19-Jun-2011 17:22

You will find a lot of scientific information in the Science Media Centre at www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz.

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#483023 20-Jun-2011 08:35

scuwp: I don't get it. We have a couple of wannabe celebrity psychics who 'see dead people' and we celebrate their 'talents' even though there is no scientific basis for their 'skills'. Yet we give them their own TV show or two, public shows etc etc and applaud their unproven abilities'

Along comes Mr Ring who uses a different scientific methodology than mainstream scence accepts to have a go at predicting certain events in the world (and pretty much gets them right) and he gets called a crackpot, gets threatened, and has to go into hiding.

Double standards?

Give him his own TV series I reckon!

But that's just it.... he doesn't!

gzt

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#483146 20-Jun-2011 13:08

scuwp: Along comes Mr Ring who uses a different scientific methodology than mainstream scence accepts to have a go at predicting certain events in the world (and pretty much gets them right) [...]

This is how it works:

Let's say I have developed a different scientific methodology (based on quantum mechanics) to predict dice rolls. Not a lot of scientists believe me but it is very accurate.

You roll a dice 30 or so times and before you roll each time I will predict what the result will be. I'm going to be right some of those times.

Unless you are particularly gullible - and I do not think you are - you will not be convinced my prediction method and theory and is correct.

So I will take this one step further add a 'fudge factor' of +1 and -1 to each of my predictions. My method requires this because quantum prediction is very accurate.

Now my predictions are 'correct' far more often. And a lot of people will believe me.

It is now the most accurate method for predicting the roll of dice. No other method even comes close.

Even so, I can make my presentation more convincing:

I will emphasise each of my correct 'predictions', and I will also explain each of my incorrect predictions, and why these were wrong.

Now I realise I should have addded an additional +1 to account for variations in the quantum flow, or an additional -1 to account for the influence of venus at this time of year. My method is so accurate it can even explain the inaccuracies of my method!

Amazing!

scuwp: [...] and he gets called a crackpot, gets threatened, and has to go into hiding.

I disagree with the threatening, and much of the name calling. None of that has helped people to understand why these 'predictions' can sometimes appear to be 'correct'.