Real estate, post COVID-19 level 4 (since 2020)

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Mad Scientist
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#2822988 2-Dec-2021 09:26

quickymart:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/12/housing-crisis-everything-points-towards-a-market-correction-in-2022-economist.html

"Correction" not "crash".

nobody knows. it could also be another surge. property market in NZ is like a sharemarket. you can have 3 economists writing in the same section and one say no change one say crash one say increase. happens all the time. i've stopped reading.

with the border opening and people coming back, there is could be need for housing.

(but no sorry i didn't read article, as to me it's just white noise)

Batman

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#2822989 2-Dec-2021 09:27

Divhon88:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/12/national-leader-christopher-luxon-with-7-properties-wouldn-t-want-to-see-house-prices-fall-dramatically.html?cid=soc3%3Anewshubfb&fbclid=IwAR1myl1mVHKWpwJ8naMjGCdt0dSX2RJ_aB_58JsyyD5mHVYaEJZmCdmIAoc Instatntly lost 2 votes from our household.

Act party looks like a worthy go https://www.act.org.nz/housing-and-infrastructure-strategy

no govt wants property prices to fall dramatically. doesn't matter which party is in charge, whether their leader has 0 houses or 100 houses, regardless of what they say they want to see happen. but other than that yes you can vote whoever you want, it's a democracy.

quickymart

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#2824791 5-Dec-2021 21:27

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/300467800/mega-landlord-says-wind-change-in-market-could-see-prices-fall-20-per-cent

I realise this is just the opinion of one guy, but it would be interesting to see this happen, if what he said came true.

irpegg

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#2824862 6-Dec-2021 09:13

20% drop, would just take it back to Jan 2021 prices... yay...

https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-price-reinz

heavenlywild

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#2824864 6-Dec-2021 09:18

^ As we know one person's opinion doesn't make it fact. The media shouldn't interview randoms and printing their opinions as if they are "experts" or have some authority over house prices.

Correction: Sorry I thought you linked it to the NZ Herald article.

Let me say, no one really knows what will happen. The internal NZ environment is always affected by what is happening globally.

Handsomedan

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#2824884 6-Dec-2021 09:50

Auckland Council have delayed announcing their revaluation for Rates purposes of all Auckland properties, citing COVID. How a virus delays a paper valuation that requires no physical interaction, I am unsure.

It's a year overdue and won't be released until December (this month) to take effect next year.

It'll be interesting to see what they value properties at - if there's a correction, it'll leave some houses with a Rateable Value higher than the Market Value.

I also smell (rather cynically) that the delays have been to take advantage of the rapidly increasing values, so that rates can be set somewhat artificially higher than they would have been a year ago.

My property (on paper) has increased by around $300k in the last 12 months. That could be quite significant for rates purposes.

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heavenlywild

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#2824889 6-Dec-2021 09:55

Your info is now out of date. Auckland Council has delayed the new CVs yet again from this month to March 2022. However, the CVs will be based on June 2021.

cshwone

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#2824892 6-Dec-2021 09:59

Handsomedan:

Auckland Council have delayed announcing their revaluation for Rates purposes of all Auckland properties, citing COVID. How a virus delays a paper valuation that requires no physical interaction, I am unsure.

It's a year overdue and won't be released until December (this month) to take effect next year.

It'll be interesting to see what they value properties at - if there's a correction, it'll leave some houses with a Rateable Value higher than the Market Value.

I also smell (rather cynically) that the delays have been to take advantage of the rapidly increasing values, so that rates can be set somewhat artificially higher than they would have been a year ago.

My property (on paper) has increased by around $300k in the last 12 months. That could be quite significant for rates purposes.

That's not how rates work. The amount you pay is based on the council budget against the value of all the housing/commercial stock in the area. Your 300k rise will also be reflected in all the other properties around you so the proportion you pay stays the same against the council budget. The council don't suddenly get an increase in budget because RV has increased.

Where it can get complicated is where some suburbs increase more than other suburbs which means that they may pay slightly more and the people in the other suburb slightly less on a year on year basis.

quickymart

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#2825036 6-Dec-2021 13:42

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/40596

House prices survey of 1000 people.

mattwnz

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#2825065 6-Dec-2021 14:23

Handsomedan:

Auckland Council have delayed announcing their revaluation for Rates purposes of all Auckland properties, citing COVID. How a virus delays a paper valuation that requires no physical interaction, I am unsure.

It's a year overdue and won't be released until December (this month) to take effect next year.

It'll be interesting to see what they value properties at - if there's a correction, it'll leave some houses with a Rateable Value higher than the Market Value.

I also smell (rather cynically) that the delays have been to take advantage of the rapidly increasing values, so that rates can be set somewhat artificially higher than they would have been a year ago.

My property (on paper) has increased by around $300k in the last 12 months. That could be quite significant for rates purposes.

Everything gets blamed on covid, it is the go to excuse these days. As many people say, Rating Values mean little when it comes to market value, they are just a way to distribute council rates based on house wealth, so are a form of local wealth tax rather than a fair share of the services used. So theoretically peoples rates shouldn't change much apart from the normal annual % rise. eg If everyones house value rose 30% then. Likewise if everyones house dropped 25% rates wouldn't drop, they would increase. Not unless there is a factor like certain houses having more land than others, and land values have increased due to it's potential value to developers causing that properties value to rise more as a % than others in the city.

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#2825070 6-Dec-2021 14:32

Stuff articles have predicted 276 of the last zero property market reversals.

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heavenlywild

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#2825090 6-Dec-2021 15:00

MikeAqua:

Stuff articles have predicted 276 of the last zero property market reversals.

Sorry, what do you mean? I don't know what you are trying to say, not being sarcastic.

Divhon88

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#2825105 6-Dec-2021 15:38

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/freedom-lifestyle-villages-granted-consent-for-197-lifestyle-homes-in-rotorua/NCB67CBNBUOOUO4VTVX3LFWSS4/

What a tasty recipe, the battle grounds of cashed-in retirees and cash less homeless poor.

tdgeek

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#2825110 6-Dec-2021 15:49

Divhon88:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/freedom-lifestyle-villages-granted-consent-for-197-lifestyle-homes-in-rotorua/NCB67CBNBUOOUO4VTVX3LFWSS4/

What a tasty recipe, the battle grounds of cashed-in retirees and cash less homeless poor.

Seems ok to me. 197 new homes, so the homes they currently live in will be on the market. An uptick in supply compared to the present, that should help prices to ease. Probably that development might expand, include other new homes to take advantage of the new infrastructure there. Seems a win to me. Do this throughout NZ where applicable, supply grows.

mattwnz

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#2825114 6-Dec-2021 15:55

tdgeek:

Divhon88:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/freedom-lifestyle-villages-granted-consent-for-197-lifestyle-homes-in-rotorua/NCB67CBNBUOOUO4VTVX3LFWSS4/

What a tasty recipe, the battle grounds of cashed-in retirees and cash less homeless poor.

Seems ok to me. 197 new homes, so the homes they currently live in will be on the market. An uptick in supply compared to the present, that should help prices to ease. Probably that development might expand, include other new homes to take advantage of the new infrastructure there. Seems a win to me. Do this throughout NZ where applicable, supply grows.

Many may rent them out, so potentially more rentals, or empty homes or airbnbs, so they still get the capital gains. But many people don't like retirement estates as many are license to occupy and you don't get the capital gains on them. If you need to sell to move into a smaller apartment, you usually have to sell at the price you paid less a percentage. But the apartment you buy will be at current market prices, so some people can get priced out of the market if prices increase a lot.

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