Real estate, post level 4

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#2826456 8-Dec-2021 08:20

quickymart:

Sadly the price has been corrected - $1,199,000 now. What a place to make a typo! 🙃

Yep. That price does seem ok?

What is PLUS 2 Launches House means?

GV27

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#2826457 8-Dec-2021 08:21

tdgeek:

heavenlywild:

^The above story is much more common than people think or want to realise. 500k - 800k gains over the past year is absolutely the norm at the moment.

Unsustainable? I don't know. If it were unsustainable then people would stop buying, yet people are still buying at the current higher rates.

Yep, I could sell my AKL house for a fat profit, and move to a lower priced town and be happy to pay a price that is 50% higher than what it was last year. Knowing that others like me will push the price up in the future, plus I'd be cashed up and in a better home. Thats the domain of owners. But as supply ramps up and it seems to be happening that will ease things, but that's a way off yet

Diminishing returns though, you're getting less value but spending more money on a lesser house to get it. You're coming out ahead until you index things, and then you aren't.

I wouldn't count on supply. We're still a long way off materials issues being sorted. And there's going to be a logjam of development next year that can't get goods or people to construct them.

tdgeek

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#2828465 8-Dec-2021 09:14

GV27:

Diminishing returns though, you're getting less value but spending more money on a lesser house to get it. You're coming out ahead until you index things, and then you aren't.

I wouldn't count on supply. We're still a long way off materials issues being sorted. And there's going to be a logjam of development next year that can't get goods or people to construct them.

Id wager that selling an AKL house and getting cash and a better house isn't a diminishing return at all. Unless you need to move back to AKL that is

Developements seem to be ramping up, like I said, takes time. The first one I read about starts early 2022, and overall a 5 year plan although new builds will start appearing from 2022 onwards. Not really a logjam, but an upward movement.

GV27

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#2828490 8-Dec-2021 09:43

tdgeek:

Id wager that selling an AKL house and getting cash and a better house isn't a diminishing return at all. Unless you need to move back to AKL that is

You're also assuming that houses outside of Auckland will go backwards slower or at the same rate that Auckland does, which might be fanciful. Not sure how attractive the regions will be once the social problems that come with negative equity flare up.

cshwone

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#2828491 8-Dec-2021 09:46

GV27:
tdgeek:

Id wager that selling an AKL house and getting cash and a better house isn't a diminishing return at all. Unless you need to move back to AKL that is

You're also assuming that houses outside of Auckland will go backwards slower or at the same rate that Auckland does, which might be fanciful. Not sure how attractive the regions will be once the social problems that come with negative equity flare up.

But by that point you have locked in the cash profit from your original sale. Even if the house price in the regions goes backward at whatever rate you have used less capital so less exposure to market shifts.

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#2828498 8-Dec-2021 09:59

tdgeek:

quickymart:

Sadly the price has been corrected - $1,199,000 now. What a place to make a typo! 🙃

Yep. That price does seem ok?

What is PLUS 2 Launches House means?

@tdgeek I think it's meant to be 2 LOUNGES.

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tdgeek

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#2828499 8-Dec-2021 09:59

cshwone:

But by that point you have locked in the cash profit from your original sale. Even if the house price in the regions goes backward at whatever rate you have used less capital so less exposure to market shifts.

Yep. What do you want? 1.4M tied up in an AKL house, or 500k in the bank, and a better house, and no commutes from hell?

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MikeAqua

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#2828532 8-Dec-2021 10:49

mattwnz:

MikeAqua:

They keep predicting house prices will drop, but they never do.

They do drop and have dropped in the past,. But over the long term they should rise. Also in much of NZ prior to a few years ago, there had been little growth in house prices in many parts of NZ for some time, and one could argue that for much of NZ prior to 2018 ish, there wasn't a housing crisis in much of NZ, mainly Auckland and a few other main centres. But the big problem NZ has, is that during covid house prices have risen 40% which I don't think has ever occurred before in recent history. So if that can happen....
Then you need to think about the rising interest rates and the market is already cooling and people negative about things. I heard an article yesterday where someone was saying that Wellington prices may have dropped 10% in the last 3 months.

I was being humorous in my original post. Obviously not very effectively.

I've been watching parts of the Wellington housing market. Still seems to be going up. We just got a new RV for ours, which is less than recent sales of comparable apartments in our building and 1.7x what we paid four years ago.

One more year until brightline can't touch us if we decide to sell 🤑.

Mike

rphenix

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#2829907 10-Dec-2021 13:07

Divhon88: Has the 1st Trumpet of housing apocalypse just been sounded?

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/China-Evergrande-misses-bond-payment-deadline?fbclid=IwAR3p52mPzdiXvm2gM7zPPl3spTRGGuviW3BPo9ANOMJrgQe4hz9yJXJIoD8

Now appears to have defaulted:

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/investing/evergrande-default-fitch-intl-hnk/index.html

quickymart

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#2829908 10-Dec-2021 13:17

What does this mean for NZ though? That's my question.

quickymart

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#2830268 11-Dec-2021 07:27

quickymart:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/300451785/mega-landlords-new-parents-sell-home-instantly-priced-out-of-moving-up-ladder

This surprised me somewhat - I would have thought that with this guy being a mortgage adviser he would have had a handle on the market, ie, make an offer on your new place first, then put yours on the market and it will sell quickly.

Not "I'll sell my old place first and just hope for the best". Now he's complaining he's being priced out.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/300472623/auckland-family-priced-off-housing-ladder-find-home-as-signs-of-market-turn-mount

This story had a happy conclusion, at least.

quickymart

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#2831228 13-Dec-2021 10:10

Prices set new records but not clear if it's sustainable:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-house-prices-hit-new-record-925000-up-238-auckland-now-13m/BNNOELUO2JVKP5VA43YYZNKQUQ/

I think places like Queenstown would be pushing up Otago's median price.

heavenlywild

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#2831232 13-Dec-2021 10:17

It seems like the more the powers that be tweak the rules, the higher the prices go, especially in Auckland.

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Divhon88

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#2831241 13-Dec-2021 10:30

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/457770/first-home-grant-price-cap-changes-won-t-come-into-effect-until-next-year?fbclid=IwAR0NTQCheu5y3B8XZfb75lXcSjogeA4ICOeixnW02KONKHiTevfMfdLenLw

What are your bullish prediction on the new caps will be?

What are the chances that this will be just another media propaganda and will again be so far from reality?

They need to add atleast $150,000 across the current price caps if they really want to help FHB.

I know we don't have the money for it but If they only think outside the box 195,000 new residents are coming.

Most if not all of them are buying their houses in the coming years so.

If they only want the house prices to stabilize in the next few yearts and not completely go downhill they need to prepare now, who knows what that Evergrande default

fallout will bring. I say it's one of the reason why Crypto negatively reacted.

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#2831257 13-Dec-2021 10:47

heavenlywild:

It seems like the more the powers that be tweak the rules, the higher the prices go, especially in Auckland.

well i think it would all be different if kiwibuild actually built 100,000 houses.

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