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tweake
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  #3153307 29-Oct-2023 12:35
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mudguard:

 

I'm not sure who exactly you are talking about. Most homeowners generally own one property. Most the "profit" is a paper figure until it's sold.

 

 

the traditional path is to buy your first house, like you have, do it up or simply wait, sell it for a little bit of profit, buy somewhere else, sell that for a little bit more, ie climb the property ladder and then once you have enough money, build your own house. as you added a house to the market you help reduce demand and lower house prices.

 

but a lot of that stopped, as we can see from the records. instead of spending money on a new home they kept climbing the ladder making profit reinvesting into the house, then finally downsizing and cashing up all the profit. which of course is all tax free. as they didn't build a new home, demand goes up which increases prices so they made even more profit, so more did it, which leads us to today.

 

land prices is another issue. restrictions caused by RMA and even today the current big push from the same people thats been making the $$$, to use more land instead of going up which keeps land prices up (guess who owns the land). plus councils who push their costs onto developers who pass it on to the land price, so you end up with insanely high priced sections.

 

in my old home town there was subdivisions built in the 90's that had no houses built for 20+ years. 

 

decades ago word got around you could buy a ten acre block, list it as a farm and write your income tax off to it. so you paid no taxes but claimed all profit from the "farm" sale as capital gains and paid no tax on it. suddenly 10 acre blocks becomes really common. well untill ird clamped down on that practice but that loophole is still in use today.




GV27
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  #3153308 29-Oct-2023 12:38
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Another dent in the housing 'supply' is the lingering effects of the Leaky Building crisis and the ongoing remediations (and in some caes, re-remediations) for various issues like fire compliance. 

 

It doesn't get mentioned much as it's a whole-of-sector issue that invovles central, local governments, industry and badly needed reform in the construction and property management sectors. There's no simple fix and people don't generally have the appetite for that kind of introspection. 

 

Unfortunartely it put some off apartments forever and stalled the development of the market for them in NZ - all big reasons why a small pokey apartment will often cost the same, and in some cases more than larger house on its own plot of land.


Handle9
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  #3153310 29-Oct-2023 12:46
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tweake:

mudguard:


I'm not sure who exactly you are talking about. Most homeowners generally own one property. Most the "profit" is a paper figure until it's sold.



the traditional path is to buy your first house, like you have, do it up or simply wait, sell it for a little bit of profit, buy somewhere else, sell that for a little bit more, ie climb the property ladder and then once you have enough money, build your own house. as you added a house to the market you help reduce demand and lower house prices.



Umm no. That’s not the “traditional” path most people went down. The vast majority of families never built a house. They could never afford it and access to credit was extremely difficult until the market reforms of the 80s and 90s.

It was far more traditional to live in a state house and eventually buy it or buy an already built house in a subdivision from a developer.



tweake
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  #3153312 29-Oct-2023 12:47
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Handle9: 

 


You’ve continuously claimed that “people” buy second hand houses to push up the price of the existing housing stock rather than buying new. That’s just not the case.

Most people buy used houses because they are cheaper than new houses, both for capital costs and overall TCO after accounting for accomodation costs and capital costs.

Everyone with a brain acknowledges there’s a shortage of housing. Most people also acknowledge that the reasons for this are significantly more complex than greed.

 

yet new home build rates plummeted (so clearly people stopped building )while profits from housing went up.  your trying to say its just dumb luck that people made lots of money off it, even tho they where told it would happen. but they still accidently invested in homes. they just happened to have govt (that they voted in and who are also that generation and "class") make the rules that just happen to suit them perfectly. even tho people told them this outcome would happen they never heard the warnings. "o how sad, if we had only known".

 

you think thats all by "accident" and any other reason is a nut case conspiracy. 

 

yes there is more reasons for the housing crisis (for eg see above post) but you will never fix it because people don't want it fixed because of profit. its self fulfilling until it all crashes and burns. then as per usual they will all blame something else, never themselves.

 

make the money and pretend they never did anything wrong. 


tweake
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  #3153313 29-Oct-2023 12:50
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Handle9: 

 They could never afford it and access to credit was extremely difficult until the market reforms of the 80s and 90s.

 

so access to credit goes up, right when new builds drop like a stone and housing profits really start to climb. go fique, i wonder how that happened 🤪


tweake
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  #3153314 29-Oct-2023 12:54
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GV27:

 

It doesn't get mentioned much as it's a whole-of-sector issue that invovles central, local governments, industry and badly needed reform in the construction and property management sectors. There's no simple fix and people don't generally have the appetite for that kind of introspection. 

 

 

very true. 

 

tho i would add no one wants it fixed when there is still profit to be made.


 
 
 

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mudguard
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  #3153416 29-Oct-2023 16:27
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tweake:

 

GV27:

 

It doesn't get mentioned much as it's a whole-of-sector issue that invovles central, local governments, industry and badly needed reform in the construction and property management sectors. There's no simple fix and people don't generally have the appetite for that kind of introspection. 

 

 

very true. 

 

tho i would add no one wants it fixed when there is still profit to be made.

 

 

It's only profitable if you can get in, hold on, and then eventually downsize to another town. 

 

If you bought in Auckland ten years ago for $500k, and it's "worth" $1,000,000 now, I mean that's amazing if you want to sell and not have to spend the same again.

 

Technically more houses are being built now than anytime in history. Problem is our population is growing faster than virtually any time in history as well. We are a small country at the end of the supply chain. Even if we trained builders right now there's no way we could keep up with the population growth. I think of that 100,000 new migrants, half of that have come to Auckland. In one year. Let's say of that 50,000 it's all Mum, Dad and a child. That's 16,600 houses needed. In one year. 


mudguard
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  #3153417 29-Oct-2023 16:33
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tweake:

 

Handle9: 

 They could never afford it and access to credit was extremely difficult until the market reforms of the 80s and 90s.

 

so access to credit goes up, right when new builds drop like a stone and housing profits really start to climb. go fique, i wonder how that happened 🤪

 

 

Here are the stats

 

 

 

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/annual-number-of-homes-consented-down-7-9-percent/


Handle9
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  #3153418 29-Oct-2023 16:43
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tweake:

Handle9: 

 They could never afford it and access to credit was extremely difficult until the market reforms of the 80s and 90s.


so access to credit goes up, right when new builds drop like a stone and housing profits really start to climb. go fique, i wonder how that happened 🤪


Funnily enough building new houses is quite difficult when interest rates are at 20%. Put rampant inflation into the mix and its mess.

tweake
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  #3153419 29-Oct-2023 16:47
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mudguard:

 

It's only profitable if you can get in, hold on, and then eventually downsize to another town. 

 

 

yes, thats pretty typical. we have heaps around here. neighbors sold up their big auckland house, moved north and bought a cheap house next to me.  a lot of my old auckland customers retired to their beach house.

 

don't forget a lot are selling and moving into retirement homes or elderly care. they take all their life savings out of the property.

 

but as profit making, climbing the ladder goes, its often just a case of moving down the road. the typical average is every 7 years. one article saying its now 5 years.


tweake
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  #3153420 29-Oct-2023 16:50
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Handle9: 
Funnily enough building new houses is quite difficult when interest rates are at 20%. Put rampant inflation into the mix and its mess.

 

for all of 2 months of that on houses worth 1/3 the value, WOW. especially when stats shows house builds drop a lot well before that ever happened. 

 

 


 
 
 
 

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kingdragonfly

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  #3153438 29-Oct-2023 17:41
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Note that by median salary vs median house price, Auckland is far worse than Los Angeles.

Now for something different
  • It's literally under an ugly bridge, no views.
  • 43 sq meter home
  • started at NZ $280,000
  • sold for NZ $740,000


Handle9
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  #3153443 29-Oct-2023 18:11
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tweake:

Handle9: 
Funnily enough building new houses is quite difficult when interest rates are at 20%. Put rampant inflation into the mix and its mess.


for all of 2 months of that on houses worth 1/3 the value, WOW. especially when stats shows house builds drop a lot well before that ever happened. 


 



Go and look at the interest rate trends for the 1970s and 1980s. Having a rant about “profits” doesn’t obscure the facts of building.

tdgeek
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  #3153446 29-Oct-2023 18:17
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mudguard:

 

I'm not sure who exactly you are talking about. Most homeowners generally own one property. Most the "profit" is a paper figure until it's sold. As it has been mentioned building new is much more difficult than buying an existing property. I'm a recent home owner, I didn't consider a new build at all. I bought as a place to live, I couldn't really care less what the value does as I didn't wanted to move rentals continually. If the price goes up, well great if I want to move to a different town, but not really relevant if I want to stay put. 

 

Again, I'm not trying to diminish how much of a problem this has become where a home is many multiples higher than incomes. But I'm saying that people aren't building new because of so many factors, not because of a reduced profit. The suburb where I live still has plenty of empty sections. But they are priced from $600,000. I mean until recently you could buy a whole house for that here. 

 

So using your logic, those sections are empty because they are not as profitable. Well they surely aren't, they are extremely expensive just to buy. You might need to have a 50% deposit just to purchase the land. So there's $300k gone. Then you may need more deposit for the house build portion (I'm unsure if any bank will lend 100% on a build).

 

 

 

 

Agree. I know people that always build, and those that will never do it again. I bought my first house at 19, investment flats with a mate. Over they years I bought a "home", the odd rental and moved on. NZ builds houses as a matter of fact, some do, many dont, no issue. But as the population grows whether by birth or net immigration, you HAVE to build. If you don't, supply and demand will give us what we have now.

 

Math 101


tdgeek
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  #3153449 29-Oct-2023 18:25
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tweake:

 

the traditional path is to buy your first house, like you have, do it up or simply wait, sell it for a little bit of profit

 

 

I havent read the rest of your post, but dont need to

 

Yes Ive bought my first house, done it up and so on, but there is no free ride. When you sell, then buy, its the same market. No profit. Well, there is paper profit, but when you buy a 300k house and sell it for 600k and buy a 600k house, its the same house. If you own more than one house, well,, thats a winner. You have also added to the rental stocks, so great. Now, that is profit, when you sell up or do a Dunlop and re tyre


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