2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2596226 2-Nov-2020 13:53

Read on the herald that Prince Charles and Prince William has both had covid

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/covid-19-coronavirus-prince-william-secretly-battled-virus/OTQZGBSPH6SLGVPEWZRDCNT63I/

frankv

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#2596288 2-Nov-2020 14:26

Jas777:

If they want it to work the way people here and overseas say a lockdown is needed to combat the virus then it will have to be until a vaccine, the virus goes away or mutates to like the normal flu etc.

So for that to happen you are looking at a 6 month + long lockdown.

1 or 2 months will just delay it and have to do all over again.

Unlike here or Australia stopping people with it from other parts of the world is so much more difficult that you can't really stop it.

So you have to offset the increase in suicides, murders, domestic violence, assaults, and the long term mental health issues especially amongst children with what type of lockdown you want.

Is stopping someone who is 85 from living another 2 or 3 years worth it against a 10 year old child who has 50 years of mental health issues.?

A 4-6 week lockdown works, irrespective of the size of the population, so long as it applies to the whole population. In the UK, they have a pretty good success rate at keeping out poor people without work visas. If they put the same effort into keeping out covid, they could do it.

I don't see 50 years of mental health issues being created by 6 weeks of lockdown. Kids are remarkably resilient. I can however imagine existing mental health problems being exacerbated, especially amongst those that are already at risk (e.g. well along the autism spectrum). I'm curious about your basis for claiming the "increase in suicides, murders, domestic violence, assaults"... NZ's suicide rate to 30 June was the *lowest* in 3 years, going against a 10-year trend of increasing rates.

The Chief Coroner's comments seem apropos:

Marshall also mentioned the concern about the rate due to the COVID-19 pandemic which has significantly impacted Kiwis. The data from Friday covered New Zealand's first wave of COVID-19 and the March lockdown.

"Throughout this year there has been unhelpful and irresponsible public commentary on the effect COVID-19 would have on the suicide rate," Marshall said.

kingdragonfly

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#2596350 2-Nov-2020 14:56

Batman: Read on the herald that Prince Charles and Prince William has both had covid

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/covid-19-coronavirus-prince-william-secretly-battled-virus/OTQZGBSPH6SLGVPEWZRDCNT63I/

Prince Charles and Prince William lives are not private. I suspect they didn't tell the public because they didn't want the media crush.

However as public figures, they also missed the chance for a "teaching moment": teach many people about COVID.

You can say a lot of negatives about Boris Johnson, but he really showed how to handle the sickness, and frequently praised NHS.

Instead Prince Charles and Prince William taught a COVID infection is something to be hidden, if you're powerful.

Jas777

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#2596367 2-Nov-2020 15:17

frankv

If a 4-6 week lockdown works then why are they having another lockdown? Surely the first would have worked.

In a country like the UK with a much higher population and close proximity to Europe the only lockdown that would work is either a permanent one or to stop anyone from entering the UK. Do you really think you could quarantine the number of people who enter the UK and not have it get out somehow?

Sure a one-off lockdown will not cause many mental health issues but 2,3,4 more and long ones will.

I am talking about the UK not NZ, the situations are different.

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#2596368 2-Nov-2020 15:18

kingdragonfly:

Prince Charles and Prince William lives are not private. I suspect they didn't tell the public because they didn't want the media crush.

Prince Charles's covid illness was public news back in April: https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/tradition/a33574337/prince-harry-charles-covid-19-diagnosis-reaction-finding-freedom/

freitasm

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#2596375 2-Nov-2020 15:24

"MBIE issuing warning to Kiwis abroad as managed isolation facilities fill up for Christmas"

The number of spots available for managed isolation over Christmas are dwindling and has seen the Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment issue a warning for any overseas Kiwis wanting to get home for the festive period.

MBIE today announced its new system is "becoming fully booked" in the lead-up to Christmas.

From midnight tonight it becomes a legal requirement for anyone wanting to get back into New Zealand to have a voucher.

Expect some people trying to book a trip on the 10 December and complaining that a) they need to be in isolation for 14 days so that they won't be with relatives on Christmas eve and b) there is no more space available.

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#2596381 2-Nov-2020 15:40

[quoth] Jas777:

If a 4-6 week lockdown works then why are they having another lockdown? Surely the first would have worked.

[/quoth]

Because *after* the first lockdown they let the disease get away again. Melbourne has learnt this lesson too, and successfully brought it under control again with a second lockdown.

Conversely, if lockdowns don't work, why are they having another one in the UK? Apparently HMG thinks they do work.

[quoted]

I am talking about the UK not NZ, the situations are different.

[/quoted]

Oh, OK. My mistake. My cursory search didn't find any reliable stats for the UK for this year (but then I'm not making any claim about increased suicide rate). The most up-to-date I found was https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/quarterlysuicidedeathregistrationsinengland/2001to2019registrationsandquarter1jantomartoquarter2aprtojune2020provisionaldata

The number of suicides registered in the second quarter of 2020 is lower than expected and should be interpreted with caution

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wellygary

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#2596389 2-Nov-2020 15:54

Jas777:

frankv

If a 4-6 week lockdown works then why are they having another lockdown? Surely the first would have worked.

Because the whole point is to slow down transmission enough to allow the health service and trace/isolate systems to be able to function,

In Europe currently there is no functioning trace and isolate, the numbers of simply too great.... and then the death rates will follow 3-4 weeks later as the ICUs get swamped... while capacity has been expended since April, the numbers of new cases in Europe are truly frightening....

Jas777

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#2596390 2-Nov-2020 15:54

frankv:

[quoth] Jas777:

If a 4-6 week lockdown works then why are they having another lockdown? Surely the first would have worked.

[/quoth]

Because *after* the first lockdown they let the disease get away again. Melbourne has learnt this lesson too, and successfully brought it under control again with a second lockdown.

Conversely, if lockdowns don't work, why are they having another one in the UK? Apparently HMG thinks they do work.

[quoted]

I am talking about the UK not NZ, the situations are different.

[/quoted]

Oh, OK. My mistake. My cursory search didn't find any reliable stats for the UK for this year (but then I'm not making any claim about increased suicide rate). The most up-to-date I found was https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/quarterlysuicidedeathregistrationsinengland/2001to2019registrationsandquarter1jantomartoquarter2aprtojune2020provisionaldata

The number of suicides registered in the second quarter of 2020 is lower than expected and should be interpreted with caution

Mental Health and suicides take time to manifest themselves so figures in 2020 will not give any great picture.

Yes they have bought it under control but at what cost and it took a long time (15 weeks) and they had the advantage of a hard border lockdown. Does the UK have that advantage of hard border lockdown?

What do you think a 15 week hard lockdown like Melbourne will do to 60 million people? How do you think someone who lives in a tower block in London in a 30 - 45 sq metre apartment would handle 15 weeks of lockdown?

You got to think that due to delayed affects and the numbers and the test only being 96 to 97% accurate that 12 to 15 weeks minimum is needed and for a big population country like the UK then 20 to 25 weeks is needed.

Jas777

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#2596396 2-Nov-2020 16:01

wellygary:

Jas777:

frankv

If a 4-6 week lockdown works then why are they having another lockdown? Surely the first would have worked.

Because the whole point is to slow down transmission enough to allow the health service and trace/isolate systems to be able to function,

In Europe currently there is no functioning trace and isolate, the numbers of simply too great.... and then the death rates will follow 3-4 weeks later as the ICUs get swamped... while capacity has been expended since April, the numbers of new cases in Europe are truly frightening....

This is my whole point. A short lockdown to slow down transmission will just lead to another one later. So you either have 2, 3 or 4 lots of lockdown to slow transmission and then it starts up again or a long one.

In NZ we were lucky as at bottom of the world and small population. Europe and UK don't have the benefit of that. So you either have multiple lockdowns and the problems that brings, a long one and the problems that brings, shut your borders for 1 , 2 , 3 years or figure out some other way to deal with it.

wellygary

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#2596398 2-Nov-2020 16:08

Jas777:

This is my whole point. A short lockdown to slow down transmission will just lead to another one later. So you either have 2, 3 or 4 lots of lockdown to slow transmission and then it starts up again or a long one.

No, the hope is once you put out the raging bush fire, you have enough ability in the health service to keep mopping up the smaller fires with regular testing and self isolation....

Basically everyone is hoping for a vaccine in Q1 2021 and hoping like h%ll they can get there without the death rates going back up....

Oblivian

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#2596419 2-Nov-2020 16:44

Regardless of the situations anywhere. None of those opposing or now facing more lockdowns would need them, had they not taken their own actions seriously.

Who remembers carless roads and crossing to the opposite side to avoid your neighbour... it is that sort of sacrifice that cut the head of. Not just the lockdown. Not just the closing of non essential. But the keeping up appearances during the lower tiers when stuff did re-open.

Person to person interaction. Basic economics. 1+1=3^* 1+0 = 1.

Re-opening parties where you get smashed and yell spittle into your best mates face cause you are so stoked to be back at the pub, undoes that unless you are totally on-top of it. Which we only were after a stringent 4 week. And then have (touch wood) largely kept it up/(dodged bullets). Not so much elsewhere.

Though I'd still like to be avoiding people like a normal introvert :)

There is a meme floating around that started start/mid Oct. Straight up saying. Your actions now, dictate how close you can get to your significant others come Christmas. Take self responsibility.

mattwnz

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#2596421 2-Nov-2020 16:49

wellygary:

Jas777:

This is my whole point. A short lockdown to slow down transmission will just lead to another one later. So you either have 2, 3 or 4 lots of lockdown to slow transmission and then it starts up again or a long one.

No, the hope is once you put out the raging bush fire, you have enough ability in the health service to keep mopping up the smaller fires with regular testing and self isolation....

Basically everyone is hoping for a vaccine in Q1 2021 and hoping like h%ll they can get there without the death rates going back up....

It is really all about not overwhelming the health system, and UK has a lot more ability to cope than NZ has, as they have far more ventilators per head. I suspect this time they are going to need to use these huge temporary hospitals which didn't get used in the first wave. This new wave looks huge..

The other problem with a COVID infested country is that other hosptial treatments maybe delayed or cancelled, which could then kill people who wouldn't have died otherwise.

IMO even with a vaccine, that may only slow things down intially, as many will refuse it initially, and the logistics in rolling it out. Also how effective it is , as it may only be 70%. Some saying that people may need 2 shots a year..

Buster

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#2596431 2-Nov-2020 17:04

What about France. Their seven day moving average is 40,000 new daily cases. That is almost twice what the UK is trying to deal with.

mattwnz

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#2596461 2-Nov-2020 18:20

kingdragonfly:

Instead Prince Charles and Prince William taught a COVID infection is something to be hidden, if you're powerful.

It also looks like William had it quite bad, when he is young and fit.

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