2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2633382 11-Jan-2021 08:46

cshwone:

Gurezaemon:

I've heard this likened to releasing a new year's model of car - all of the time-consuming safety checks have been carried out on the previous model, and small changes such as a different bonnet, grille, and door trim do not mean the car has to go back to step 1 for crash testing, etc.

And that approach worked well for the B-737 Max !!

The B-737 MAX was exactly the opposite. A significantly redesigned car, with a much larger motor, "smart" power steering to overcome the effect of the extra weight and make it drive like the previous model, but with a badge and grill to make it look like the previous model.

I'm not sure that it applies to these vaccines either? IIRC, they're the first mRNA vaccines to go into production?

GV27

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#2633396 11-Jan-2021 09:09

Starting to work a zero revenue period into my models. I find the comments from Michael Baker etc quite helpful - I don't doubt that MIQ facility processes are being constantly changed and reviewed in light of the UK strain, but mistakes happen in any system regardless of how good it is, and it seems the UK strain is in a much better position to take advantage of that than previous ones.

Imagine the central Auckland outbreak that went nowhere with a strain that was 70% more effective at spreading itself.

wellygary

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#2633400 11-Jan-2021 09:25

GV27:

Imagine the central Auckland outbreak that went nowhere with a strain that was 70% more effective at spreading itself.

But on the other hand, there was an person infected with this variant strain mingling in Brisbane for up to 5 days, but as of today no additional transmission has been detected.....

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-11/coronavirus-queensland-will-lockdown-be-lifted-greater-brisbane/13030252

Batman

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#2633401 11-Jan-2021 09:36

GV27:

Starting to work a zero revenue period into my models. I find the comments from Michael Baker etc quite helpful - I don't doubt that MIQ facility processes are being constantly changed and reviewed in light of the UK strain, but mistakes happen in any system regardless of how good it is, and it seems the UK strain is in a much better position to take advantage of that than previous ones.

Imagine the central Auckland outbreak that went nowhere with a strain that was 70% more effective at spreading itself.

the news keeps saying that if we had an outbreak with this strain we'd go into level 4 lockdown

vexxxboy

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#2633421 11-Jan-2021 10:06

Batman:

GV27:

Starting to work a zero revenue period into my models. I find the comments from Michael Baker etc quite helpful - I don't doubt that MIQ facility processes are being constantly changed and reviewed in light of the UK strain, but mistakes happen in any system regardless of how good it is, and it seems the UK strain is in a much better position to take advantage of that than previous ones.

Imagine the central Auckland outbreak that went nowhere with a strain that was 70% more effective at spreading itself.

the news keeps saying that if we had an outbreak with this strain we'd go into level 4 lockdown

no the Prophet of Doom, epidemiologist Michael Baker says that could happen. You can almost guarantee if you see a covid headline that is depressing then he will be behind it , it has been like that since day 1 and i cant think of many times that they have come true.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

frankv

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#2633439 11-Jan-2021 10:45

vexxxboy:

no the Prophet of Doom, epidemiologist Michael Baker says that could happen. You can almost guarantee if you see a covid headline that is depressing then he will be behind it , it has been like that since day 1 and i cant think of many times that they have come true.

This is typical of any issue. Child poverty, family violence, car crash stats, climate change, flooding, drought, volcanic eruptions, hacking, immigration, emigration, house prices, stock prices, electricity prices, politics, taxation, pollution, covid, or whatever, an expert on the media will tell you how bad it *could* be. Of course, it would be irresponsible to not identify the worst-case scenario.

But the experts and the media both have vested interests in catastrophising.

The experts because (a) it's an opportunity to raise the profile of their specialty, and (b) therefore increasing funding for it, and (c) raising the (self-)importance of the expert in academia and society.

The media obviously for clickbait and selling newsprint. Who's going to click on "New covid strain probably won't have any effect on NZ"? And a 30 minute interview with the expert will be trimmed to a 30 second sound bite to suit the intended message.

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#2633483 11-Jan-2021 11:42

vexxxboy:

Batman:

the news keeps saying that if we had an outbreak with this strain we'd go into level 4 lockdown

no the Prophet of Doom, epidemiologist Michael Baker says that could happen. You can almost guarantee if you see a covid headline that is depressing then he will be behind it , it has been like that since day 1 and i cant think of many times that they have come true.

ah what do you know it appears again!

but the name is Hendry not Baker ...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-lockdown-expected-if-uk-or-south-african-variant-found-in-community-expert/ZDZKWHQTJOPBPFGDRKUZW4SRNA/

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tdgeek

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#2633488 11-Jan-2021 11:46

Hendy suggests a lockdown, which is already the current policy. I read two articles of Bakers yesterday. One talks about the variant and need to be cautious the other as noted says we block everyone from USA/UK. Are these variants only in the US and UK? They seem to be in most countries including a small one in the South Pacific....

GV27

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#2633490 11-Jan-2021 11:49

Batman:

ah what do you know it appears again!

but the name is Hendry not Baker ...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-lockdown-expected-if-uk-or-south-african-variant-found-in-community-expert/ZDZKWHQTJOPBPFGDRKUZW4SRNA/

That's my fault for posting before I've had carbs in the morning.

frankv

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#2633493 11-Jan-2021 11:52

tdgeek:

Are these variants only in the US and UK? They seem to be in most countries including a small one in the South Pacific....

I think that it's also in the community in South Africa.

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#2633494 11-Jan-2021 11:52

Speaking of the UK variant.

Was having a conversation about this with my fiancée and we both realised this wouldn't affects us in any way shape or form because we just do everything at home anyway and a lot of the study that she's about to enter can be done at home too. Even if we lock down again I think most people are prepared and so are a lot more work places and universities.

A slip could lead to a community transmission from the border and we've seen it already but I remember last time we traced it so fast we basically avoided a national level of level 3 or 4 and it was isolated to a few regions.

We just have to play out part and that is scan scan scan and MOH just have to keep contact tracing even if it breaks out of MIQ.

Nothing is perfect but we're a lot more prepared and better off than the original lock down.

Ramblings from a mysterious lady who's into tech. Warning I may often create zingers.

Rikkitic

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#2633546 11-Jan-2021 12:08

Why are there still so many new virus cases coming into the country? Can't they do anything to stop those? I don't think Kiwis should be prevented from returning, but I don't see why can't get over it where they are before bringing it here.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

tdgeek

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#2633547 11-Jan-2021 12:08

MaxineN: Speaking of the UK variant.

Was having a conversation about this with my fiancée and we both realised this wouldn't affects us in any way shape or form because we just do everything at home anyway and a lot of the study that she's about to enter can be done at home too. Even if we lock down again I think most people are prepared and so are a lot more work places and universities.

A slip could lead to a community transmission from the border and we've seen it already but I remember last time we traced it so fast we basically avoided a national level of level 3 or 4 and it was isolated to a few regions.

We just have to play out part and that is scan scan scan and MOH just have to keep contact tracing even if it breaks out of MIQ.

Nothing is perfect but we're a lot more prepared and better off than the original lock down.

Was thinking that earlier. Employers, employees, supermarket online, retail online, education, public transport, these are well ahead of where they were March 26th. Motivation last time was cos we were told to. Motivation this time to accept it, follow the guidelines, is because we know that it works, and we want out of lockdown. Plus the tracing and app is far better now.

As well placed as could be expected.

tdgeek

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#2633549 11-Jan-2021 12:12

Rikkitic:

Why are there still so many new virus cases coming into the country? Can't they do anything to stop those? I don't think Kiwis should be prevented from returning, but I don't see why can't get over it where they are before bringing it here.

No solution there. Some are asymptomatic, a 72 hour test will only weed out a few, and its rife overseas, more rife than it probably has every been. London Mayor says 1 in 30 has it. I dont quite follow why so many are still returning. Its been out there forever it seems. yes, I know the incoming are diluted to stop MIQ overflowing, but Id have thought those that want to leave Dodge would have left Dodge a lot earlier. Perhaps many decided to stay put and over time and have since decided its not working overseas so need to leave now?

PolicyGuy

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#2633550 11-Jan-2021 12:13

Batman:

ah what do you know it appears again!

but the name is Hendry not Baker ...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-lockdown-expected-if-uk-or-south-african-variant-found-in-community-expert/ZDZKWHQTJOPBPFGDRKUZW4SRNA/

tdgeek:

Hendy suggests a lockdown, which is already the current policy. I read two articles of Bakers yesterday. One talks about the variant and need to be cautious the other as noted says we block everyone from USA/UK. Are these variants only in the US and UK? They seem to be in most countries including a small one in the South Pacific....

From what I've heard, Prof. Hendy says there'd have to be a lockdown, but Prof. Baker said we'd have to go to Level 4 lockdown. My personal opinion is that Prof. Baker is a bit of an alarmist who produces highly click-bait headlines in the MSM.

I expect that if there was a more-transmissible outbreak, the region in which it occurred would go to Level 3 and the rest of the country to Level 2, like last time.
If the outbreak appeared relatively contained, I wouldn't be surprised if the 'uncontaminated' island went back to Level 1 after a fortnight.
There would have to be a widespread outbreak - on the verge of out of control - before we'd go to Level 4

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