2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2657658 16-Feb-2021 16:14

freitasm:

In Australia people are using plastic bags to keep their privacy - because the media probably missed the "be kind" part of the message.

Sometimes I am glad we don't live in Australia. They can be ruthless over there. Surely they have laws that prevent filming in those circumstances to protect privacy?

antonknee

1133 posts

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#2657660 16-Feb-2021 16:23

freitasm:

In Australia people are using plastic bags to keep their privacy - because the media probably missed the "be kind" part of the message.

Disgusting. Does Joe Public really need to see this? Why does this need to be filmed? What's the public interest value in this? Sure, mention the hotel is being evacuated and Covid-19 positive people are being shifted elsewhere, but I really don't think you need to show live cross video footage of people with trash bags on their heads.

Clearly the trash bags were in fact required given media vultures were broadcasting the whole exercise.

antonknee

1133 posts

Uber Geek

#2657664 16-Feb-2021 16:28

frankv:

The fact that there's *no* hospital admissions is a strong indicator that there's probably less than 10 cases.

Yeah agreed, the lack of any presentations to hospital with Covid-19 is a good sign. You would hope anyone with symptoms (at any point) is following instructions and getting a test though.

wellygary:

I think the chances of Auckland lifting restrictions at Midnight Wednesday are low... really to be sure I think they will push it out till Friday.... and then drop it to level 2 ( or a 2+ like last time) for another week....

Yes I agree. I think three days was always simply a point to check-in and say here's the updated plan. I too think we will be in level 3 for the rest of this working week and possibly the weekend too, and then I think it's likely we will see level 2 while extra homework is done to increase the level of comfort amongst the powers that be.

frankv

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#2657665 16-Feb-2021 16:29

I wonder why the people felt the need to hide their identity. It's an airborne virus that anyone in a public place could have caught. These people were just unlucky. It's not like they caught syphilis.

Am I missing something? Were they up to something adulterous at the Holiday Inn?

wellygary

8328 posts

Uber Geek

#2657674 16-Feb-2021 16:52

antonknee:

Yes I agree. I think three days was always simply a point to check-in and say here's the updated plan. I too think we will be in level 3 for the rest of this working week and possibly the weekend too, and then I think it's likely we will see level 2 while extra homework is done to increase the level of comfort amongst the powers that be.

They are desperate to bring it down thou... they've pushed the decision time back to Wednesday afternoon, with a 4pm press conference, but I still don't think they will have enough of the "what ifs" solved by then....

csuttonnzl

30 posts

Geek

#2657690 16-Feb-2021 17:25

duckDecoy:

freitasm:

In Australia people are using plastic bags to keep their privacy - because the media probably missed the "be kind" part of the message.

Jeeesus. Let them have some dignity ffs

utterly appalling on so many levels.

Jas777

838 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2657746 16-Feb-2021 18:58

Oblivian:

For something that has been identified overseas as more contagious.

This is the 3rd? 'Seemingly' early stage dodged bullet. I think we all need lottery tickets.

I'm not quite sure how we're getting away with it. Let alone getting it appear out of the blue randomly when pointers are at the student with earlier onset/stages.

Probably a few factors. It could be a few of the following but I not an expert.

It is summer so people aren't as susceptible to catch it due to body not being as run down as in winter.

It looks like the family didn't attend any mass gathering events with people being in close proximity for a long period of time. And also the places they were at would have a reasonable distance from others and not in activities that promote talking or singing etc like a church or concert or bar etc. As well the last 3 groupings have not been just adults in the 20 - 40 age group which would be bigger spreaders.

None of the people so far who have had it use public transport especially crowded public transport.

The places they have been too I imagine would not be crowded either.

And maybe some of the people it tried to spread to stopped it dead by not letting it attach to them.

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cshwone

1070 posts

Uber Geek

#2657758 16-Feb-2021 19:26

I think the Government has painted itself into a corner by only going for a 3 day L3 in Auckland.

If there are no new community cases tomorrow I don't think they'll have much option but to go to L2 in Auckland but probably maintain L2 nationally. Otherwise people will ask why it was only 3 days announced at L3 if the intention was always for longer.

Hope it doesn't bite us.

Scott3

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#2657782 16-Feb-2021 20:09

Re the stuff on us being lucky absolutely. I bet there have been more leaks that haven't even been detected, but died out on their own.

Given out low population density, low public transport use, generally uncrowded public spaces, and how it is currently summer, combined with a bit of extra hand washing and staying home when sick etc. it is quite plausible for us to get lucky many time's.

In addition there seems to be a lot of variation in how much virus people shed. Obviously at the start of the pandemic, only those who started large clusters were noticed, where those who didn't spread the virus or get symptoms went undetected. So some selection bias that means we expect individuals to start large clusters.

Of course our luck could run out at any time. A person shedding a lot of virus that went night clubbing or to several large gigs could easily trigger a very large cluster.

But we have proven we can get on top of clusters before...

cshwone: I think the Government has painted itself into a corner by only going for a 3 day L3 in Auckland.

If there are no new community cases tomorrow I don't think they'll have much option but to go to L2 in Auckland but probably maintain L2 nationally. Otherwise people will ask why it was only 3 days announced at L3 if the intention was always for longer.

Hope it doesn't bite us.

Potentially they could go even softer than you suggest to L2 in the north island, L1 south island.

Or they could tell a story about how they were hoping to identify a link to the border and have yet to do so, so need to keep to keep the country at the current settings.

With the country being kept at L1 with the Pullman leak, I would be expecting to see a drop in levels if no further community cases are detected.

Gurezaemon

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#2657787 16-Feb-2021 20:19

frankv:

I wonder why the people felt the need to hide their identity. It's an airborne virus that anyone in a public place could have caught. These people were just unlucky. It's not like they caught syphilis.

Am I missing something? Were they up to something adulterous at the Holiday Inn?

Sadly, I think you have far too high an estimation of human nature.

A similar story - when I was living in Fukushima just after the quake and nuclear plant meltdown, a friend of mine had evacuated to Tokyo. People on crowded Tokyo trains actually stood up and moved away from him when they heard his Fukushima accent, for fear of radiation or something. He also had his car keyed down in Tokyo because it had Fukushima plates on it.

The people who did that were the Japanese equivalent of those who would throw stuff at people with Covid.

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tdgeek

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#2657982 17-Feb-2021 06:50

Scott3:

Re the stuff on us being lucky absolutely. I bet there have been more leaks that haven't even been detected, but died out on their own.

Sorry, but I don't buy the luck narrative. Its been a year, over 100,000 returnee's. Options were to ban all Kiwi's coming back, as Garner wants. Ban all lockdowns as Goff wants. Setup prisons. No leaving the room. Or a leper colony in the middle of nowhere where MIQ staff are also locked in permanently. These measures would work admirably. But we aren't that heartless or desperate, and as has been commented a lot, NZ's response was rubbish. But it wasn't, as countries that were gold standard, in the many past criticisms of NZ, now aren't. But here we are, in a great place. The media frenzy ala Garner etc is just a blame game, clickbait, with no appreciation of reality. Lockdowns are infrequent, many businesses are doing well, kids at school, and you can cuddle up at a sports event with 20,000 others. Be appreciative of that.

sbiddle

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#2657985 17-Feb-2021 07:13

Oblivian:

For something that has been identified overseas as more contagious.

This is the 3rd? 'Seemingly' early stage dodged bullet. I think we all need lottery tickets.

I'm not quite sure how we're getting away with it. Let alone getting it appear out of the blue randomly when pointers are at the student with earlier onset/stages.

Isn't it the 4th? 3 different cases of ex Pullman guests and remember we had the B1.1.7 case of the nurse in Christchurch in November as well.

If we are lucky again and this hasn't spread we're really playing Russian roulette here, and on the 6th go you always die! 😂

sbiddle

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#2658001 17-Feb-2021 08:11

Scott3:

Re the stuff on us being lucky absolutely. I bet there have been more leaks that haven't even been detected, but died out on their own.

Given out low population density, low public transport use, generally uncrowded public spaces, and how it is currently summer, combined with a bit of extra hand washing and staying home when sick etc. it is quite plausible for us to get lucky many time's.

In addition there seems to be a lot of variation in how much virus people shed. Obviously at the start of the pandemic, only those who started large clusters were noticed, where those who didn't spread the virus or get symptoms went undetected. So some selection bias that means we expect individuals to start large clusters.

Of course our luck could run out at any time. A person shedding a lot of virus that went night clubbing or to several large gigs could easily trigger a very large cluster.

There is clearly a lot that is still unknown about Covid, and things we will probably never know. Early on there had been plenty of talk about vaccines like BCG playing a part in treatments, and despite some trials and data collection there are no real definitive conclusions. Some data suggests people who have had a BCG vaccination have a lower chance of catching Covid.

But what *if* some countries that have ranked low in Covid cases who had vaccinated heavily with BCG have somehow developed some sort of immunity or at least the ability to fight the virus? While there is no real hard evidence to suggest it is the case, some other countries such as Vietnam and Taiwan have seen lower instances of Covid. It's a question that is likely to remain unanswered but if some food for thought.

We know not everybody who catches Covid (or influenza for that matter) spreads the virus.. But our good luck in CT cases of B1.1.7 with no spread does seem to be reaching the point where it surely can't last forever.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2658050 17-Feb-2021 09:21

Jas777:

It is summer so people aren't as susceptible to catch it due to body not being as run down as in winter.

There's conjecture that lower serum vitamin D levels in winter might be related, but OTOH people who have low serum vitamin D levels are probably more likely to be elderly, sedentary, overweight, poor diet, thus more susceptible to covid. I'd take it with a grain of salt that the correlation is more than coincidence.

The virus will survive longer in cooler conditions, and people spend much more time indoors (with windows closed etc) in winter. Flu shows the same pattern. Occam's razor probably favours this hypothesis.

Jas777

838 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2658061 17-Feb-2021 09:35

tdgeek:

Scott3:

Re the stuff on us being lucky absolutely. I bet there have been more leaks that haven't even been detected, but died out on their own.

Sorry, but I don't buy the luck narrative. Its been a year, over 100,000 returnee's. Options were to ban all Kiwi's coming back, as Garner wants. Ban all lockdowns as Goff wants. Setup prisons. No leaving the room. Or a leper colony in the middle of nowhere where MIQ staff are also locked in permanently. These measures would work admirably. But we aren't that heartless or desperate, and as has been commented a lot, NZ's response was rubbish. But it wasn't, as countries that were gold standard, in the many past criticisms of NZ, now aren't. But here we are, in a great place. The media frenzy ala Garner etc is just a blame game, clickbait, with no appreciation of reality. Lockdowns are infrequent, many businesses are doing well, kids at school, and you can cuddle up at a sports event with 20,000 others. Be appreciative of that.

We should be in a great place. Lots of factors are in our favour.

Low population and pop density in the big city, low public transport use, no land borders, being in a different season/continent to hotspots, contrary to what we think we do not intermingle and socialise as much as we think we do. being a pretty subservient population who follow the rules.

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