2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2680309 25-Mar-2021 12:09

sbiddle:

The definition of a CT case vs a border case makes a huge difference.

I think you're being extremely picky about how/what something is called when it really doesn't matter.

MoH know the details / what each case is, they make decisions based on those facts, if there's CT by the new definition then it probably ties in better with decisions made by cabinet under advice from experts as to whether to lock down or not and to what level.

If your argument is that we're downplaying potential risk because of either the high numbers coming through MIQ (ie more than double on a population basis compared to Aus) or how we've had too many glitches, then sure that's a valid argument - but what we call those particular cases makes no difference, so long as we can still see what's going on.

KrazyKid

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#2680361 25-Mar-2021 13:18

I can see why the details are not finely announced:

1) they are making this up as the go to some extent. Sure the have a high level and probably even detailed plans for parts of this - but circumstances are fluid so things change or are still to besorted

2) The more the announce the more people go - what what about me (South Auckland, supermarket workers, my aunt Mary). This distracts and wastes time and energy.

3) Not wanting to disappoint expectations, and discourage vaccination. Look at Astra-Zenica, The BS in the press about this at the moment has put off people getting vaccinated. Sure it's not perfect, but it's a lot better than nothing and safe.

4) Wanting to minimize the chance of bad PR and to look good. Sure this has to be a factor, but I'd put it very low down the list.

The media do good bring light to issues, but they also have copy to sell.

GV27

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#2680404 25-Mar-2021 14:19

Concerns about transmission with the Mercure, apparently? Former guests being urged to isolate. This seems like a much more front-footed response than the Pullman, which is good.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-six-new-cases-in-miq-possible-transmission-at-grand-mercure-hotel/HCSWW2KRFHNVDVTUHL775IPSQM/

networkn

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#2680456 25-Mar-2021 14:40

Fred99:

sbiddle:

The definition of a CT case vs a border case makes a huge difference.

I think you're being extremely picky about how/what something is called when it really doesn't matter.

MoH know the details / what each case is, they make decisions based on those facts, if there's CT by the new definition then it probably ties in better with decisions made by cabinet under advice from experts as to whether to lock down or not and to what level.

If your argument is that we're downplaying potential risk because of either the high numbers coming through MIQ (ie more than double on a population basis compared to Aus) or how we've had too many glitches, then sure that's a valid argument - but what we call those particular cases makes no difference, so long as we can still see what's going on.

If it doesn't matter, then why was it changed?

networkn

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#2680457 25-Mar-2021 14:41

GV27:

Concerns about transmission with the Mercure, apparently? Former guests being urged to isolate. This seems like a much more front-footed response than the Pullman, which is good.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-six-new-cases-in-miq-possible-transmission-at-grand-mercure-hotel/HCSWW2KRFHNVDVTUHL775IPSQM/

This has the potential to put us back into lockdown.

Fred99

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#2680461 25-Mar-2021 15:00

networkn:

If it doesn't matter, then why was it changed?

Probably because an MIQ worker's immediate household contacts are highly likely to get C-19 if the MIQ worker is infected, but immediately traceable and able to be isolated as soon as any MIQ worker becomes a probable or confirmed case, thus taken out of circulation before they're a community infection risk. Yes they went to a supermarket and it's a location of interest, but the chance of them being infectious at the time is very low.

It fits the description better than "Community Transmission" IMO as it's not suddenly/first appearing as a new case with unknown (until contact tracing / genomic matching etc) origin, nor extending from any known case or cluster of unknown size in the general community.

When a new "real" CT case pops up out of the blue, then we've got an emergency, as it could be just the one and only, but could mean that there are dozens of other unknown cases and a pending lockdown or alert level change is needed to find out what the heck is happening.

It doesn't really matter IMO if they change it back to the old definition either, either way there are bigger fish to fry like achieving zero "border" cases for starters - whether with MIQ workers or "guests" infecting each other in MIQ, which it looks like has happened again.

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DS248

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#2680478 25-Mar-2021 15:19

Not looking good in Brazil

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/24/americas/brazil-youth-covid-19-intl-latam/index.html

Fred99

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#2680479 25-Mar-2021 15:21

networkn:

This has the potential to put us back into lockdown.

Yep.

I think we're trying to process too many people through MIQ - it's been exceeding our ability to manage the situation well enough, probably exacerbated by the more contagious variants and (over?) confidence because we've got away with it several times.

wellygary

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#2680493 25-Mar-2021 15:29

Fred99:

networkn:

This has the potential to put us back into lockdown.

Yep.

I think we're trying to process too many people through MIQ

No,

its just we continue to do STUPID things like letting them out to mingle before they have had their day 12 test returned....

The "Pullman" report resulted in

"Day 12 ‘stay in room’ order

As a temporary measure, from 3 February 2021, people who have had their Day 12 test are required to stay in their rooms until their designated departure time. This is being reviewed but will stay in place for at least one month until we are confident that the other additional protocols have been implemented in order to achieve the required risk reduction

This has been lifted ( But I would guess it is likely to be reinstated)

I would be very interested to know what the "additional procedures" are.....

Fred99

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#2680538 25-Mar-2021 15:38

DS248:

Not looking good in Brazil

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/24/americas/brazil-youth-covid-19-intl-latam/index.html

7 day rolling average of >2,200 deaths per day on top of 300,000 deaths already, it is a horrific disaster, and with not enough vaccine and no effective leadership, there's no end in sight.

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#2680543 25-Mar-2021 15:43

News from the USA:

The Washington Post - AstraZeneca says its vaccine is 76 percent effective in an updated company analysis released after earlier challenges of its data

breaking

An updated company analysis of the coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford showed that the two-shot regimen was robustly effective - 76 percent at preventing symptomatic illness - according to a news release from the drugmaker late Wednesday.

The finding, only slightly lower than results announced days earlier, underscores that the vaccine being widely used by many countries appears to be a powerful tool to help end the pandemic. No severe cases of illness were reported in study volunteers who received the vaccine.

Among people 65 and older, the vaccine was 85 percent effective, the company reported.

The new data may not resolve challenges that the vaccine and the company face in the United States, because repeated missteps have sown confusion and distrust that may result in slower and closer scrutiny of the data. ...

Sideface

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Fred99

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#2680551 25-Mar-2021 15:48

Sideface:

The new data may not resolve challenges that the vaccine and the company face in the United States, because repeated missteps have sown confusion and distrust that may result in slower and closer scrutiny of the data. ...

Yep:

In an extraordinary rebuke, just hours after AstraZeneca on Monday announced its vaccine worked well in the U.S. study, an independent panel that oversees the study scolded the company for cherry-picking data, according to a senior administration official.

The panel wrote to AstraZeneca and U.S. health leaders that it was concerned the company chose to use data that was outdated and potentially misleading instead of the most recent and complete findings, according to the administration official, who discussed the contents on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the matter.

afe66

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#2680567 25-Mar-2021 16:29

Jab next week.
Front line health worker.
Will be interesting to see the processes of mass jabs.

GV27

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#2680571 25-Mar-2021 16:46

networkn:

This has the potential to put us back into lockdown.

If there has been long chain transmission we should be finding out about it in the community pretty much now; the fact it hasn't shown up yet seems kind of reassuring.

I think the reality is the only difference between this and the probably dozens of other incursions into the community that haven't gone anywhere is that we don't know about those ones because they didn't go anywhere.

cshwone

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#2680582 25-Mar-2021 17:09

afe66: Jab next week.
Front line health worker.
Will be interesting to see the processes of mass jabs.

Had mine today. I wouldn't call it mass vaccination at the moment. If a supermarket represents a mass amount then this was more like a visit to the dairy

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