2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2436735 12-Mar-2020 11:26

Fred99:

I don't think that shaking hands is a good move, that's exactly the kind of thing where "by example" leaders could influence behaviour to slow down spread - and that's an easy one.

There was another the other day, a health profesisonal i think, on CNN, going over safety procedures, then licked her finger to turn the page of her papers.

tdgeek

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#2436738 12-Mar-2020 11:35

GV27:

Pasifika going ahead mere months after we exported a measles epidemic to one of our island neighbours is beyond poor.

Ministry of Health has made that call, not the PM

PM has asked for advice from MoH

MoH say as they has note been any community transmission, it can go ahead

Adern and Bridges will both be there

If you felt that it should be cancelled, where does that leave Auckland CBD, Auckland busses, Auckland domestic and international terminals? Are they not the same risk or worse?

This is a serious topic, there is another thread for political venting. That both political parties leaders are attending, that should answer the concern

jonathan18

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#2436740 12-Mar-2020 11:43

tdgeek:

Agree. They took some fake sickies and lost productivity, then once all gone and genuinely sick, come in, as you say

Why this bit, and why try to link these two things? It could just as well be that the use of this paid leave is legitimate. Of course I acknowledge that a proportion of sick leave taken is for 'sickies', but the decision to come into work when sick once that five days is used will need to be made by people whether their use of paid leave was legit or not.

I also get the impression that those who don't have dependants - or the support networks to shoulder the burden that comes with sick dependants - have any understanding of the impact they can have on sick leave use.

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#2436743 12-Mar-2020 11:52

jonathan18:

tdgeek:

Agree. They took some fake sickies and lost productivity, then once all gone and genuinely sick, come in, as you say

Why this bit, and why try to link these two things? It could just as well be that the use of this paid leave is legitimate. Of course I acknowledge that a proportion of sick leave taken is for 'sickies', but the decision to come into work when sick once that five days is used will need to be made by people whether their use of paid leave was legit or not.

I also get the impression that those who don't have dependants - or the support networks to shoulder the burden that comes with sick dependants - have any understanding of the impact they can have on sick leave use.

I mentioned some, not all. The numbers that the payroll guy gave showed that 60% use all their sick pay and hardly any unpaid leave after that. So, coincidentally they exactly use it up each year. The implication is that some or all are not genuine sick days. The other 40% of us appear to play ball

GV27

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#2436751 12-Mar-2020 12:21

tdgeek:

If you felt that it should be cancelled, where does that leave Auckland CBD, Auckland busses, Auckland domestic and international terminals? Are they not the same risk or worse?

This is a serious topic, there is another thread for political venting. That both political parties leaders are attending, that should answer the concern

Yes. They are. Yes, this is a problem. There is likely to be community transition regardless of whether we test for it or not.

You only have to look at the US to see what is likely to have happened already. They had people dying from this in early Feb but were not allowed to test for it, even when they had strong reason to believe it had been happening.

I don't mean to make it political, I see this as a cultural thing - not so much 'she'll be right' but more that no one wants to be the difficult person who says it.

If we do not want this to hit us hard, then we need to get over this and quickly.

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#2436755 12-Mar-2020 12:36

GV27:

tdgeek:

If you felt that it should be cancelled, where does that leave Auckland CBD, Auckland busses, Auckland domestic and international terminals? Are they not the same risk or worse?

This is a serious topic, there is another thread for political venting. That both political parties leaders are attending, that should answer the concern

Yes. They are. Yes, this is a problem. There is likely to be community transition regardless of whether we test for it or not.

You only have to look at the US to see what is likely to have happened already. They had people dying from this in early Feb but were not allowed to test for it, even when they had strong reason to believe it had been happening.

I don't mean to make it political, I see this as a cultural thing - not so much 'she'll be right' but more that no one wants to be the difficult person who says it.

If we do not want this to hit us hard, then we need to get over this and quickly.

My stance is lockdown heaven. It works. If we had 5 then 14 then 34 etc, there wont be any festivals or Mosque services. But we had 3 people who failed to self isolate who now are, and infected 2 more. We should have had 3 cases, that never hit the public. On that it seems that incoming travellers are self isolating, at least to a very good level. So, we are doing well so far. But when I mentioned AKL busses, CBD, airports, I wasn't being facetious. The risk seems very very low, so these gatherings arent high risk, CBD is not high risk, busses, the two terminals. Thats where NZ is right now. In my opinion. I dont see it as being brace or taking a risk here yet. That may change, and unlike Italy, when and if we get a hint that it might be here in numbers (when they are still really small) we need to shut stuff down pronto. We know what exponential means, but at the start of an exponential change, the numbers are still puny. We need to act early if it starts.

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#2436761 12-Mar-2020 12:47

Its all a bit late now. From Newsroom.com..."xponential growth curves are hard to intuitively understand, but the Prime Minister needs to urgently get her head around compounding growth rates, because right now we have more Covid-19 cases than Italy had just a month ago. And Italy went from three known cases on Feb 15th to 9,172 on March 9th, writes Sam Morgan."

We have a major financial crisis looming and nothing yet in place. We should be banning all public gatherings of 1,000 or more and encouraging the population to not use overcrowded public transport unless necessary. I expect the Government to start to panic any day now, but its all a bit late, and all we can really do is to protect ourselves and our own by keeping to ourselves as much as possible for the next few weeks. I am just back from the supermarket and whole families are still cramming aisles shopping. Time to get real and take the hit but make it as short as possible.

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#2436784 12-Mar-2020 13:02

Mahon:

We have a major financial crisis looming and nothing yet in place.

Robertson has said there'll be an announcement 'next week'.

The virus does not seem to take weekends off.

So our five cases could conceivably be 20+ by the time Monday rolls around. Presumably we will import a few more when the AGP finishes on Monday/Tuesday.

Then businesses have to be able to access funding and provide any documents required for assessments etc.

Many will be spending time managing their cashflow in the lead-up to an unusually quiet year end. Many businesses are not ready for this level of disruption at this time of year.

But an announcement is coming next week. So it's all good.

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#2436785 12-Mar-2020 13:05

Mahon:

... not use overcrowded public transport unless necessary.

I actually think this is where the government should be encouraging the likes of Metlink in Wellington to add additional carriages to the trains. Metlink obviously want to minimise the number of carriages and they don't really care if everyone is packed in like sardines as long as we all pay for our tickets. It's the norm in the mornings and afternoons right now for it to be standing room only with quite significant overflow. If they simply added an additional carriage set on to some of these services it would help reduce the close contact that is being forced.

And yes, the trains can operate with additional carriages, as they often turn up with only two sets on the all stops Porirua service on the Kapiti line, but the express service will have three or more sets.

The actual uptake in train use has been noticeable over the last 12 months as it is the norm to be standing at peak time now, where 2 years ago there was often a spare seat or two. I actually wonder if they even do any realistic capacity planning, or just stick with what they've always done.

sir1963

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#2436788 12-Mar-2020 13:14

GV27:

Mahon:

We have a major financial crisis looming and nothing yet in place.

Robertson has said there'll be an announcement 'next week'.

The virus does not seem to take weekends off.

So our five cases could conceivably be 20+ by the time Monday rolls around. Presumably we will import a few more when the AGP finishes on Monday/Tuesday.

Then businesses have to be able to access funding and provide any documents required for assessments etc.

Many will be spending time managing their cashflow in the lead-up to an unusually quiet year end. Many businesses are not ready for this level of disruption at this time of year.

But an announcement is coming next week. So it's all good.

There could conceivably also be zero cases next week.

Financial support options seem to be

Rush decision making which would be criticised

Thoughtful decision making which would be criticised

dogstar001

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#2436790 12-Mar-2020 13:16

Seams like countries can go from having a few cases to having to being overwhelmed in a couple of days.

Denmark March 5th - 8 total cases

Denmark March 12th - 514 total cases

They are now partially shutting the country down.

Wonder if something will could happen here

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GV27

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#2436791 12-Mar-2020 13:19

sir1963:

There could conceivably also be zero cases next week.

Financial support options seem to be

Rush decision making which would be criticised

Thoughtful decision making which would be criticised

Perhaps I am naive, but my assumption when it comes to pandemic planning is that you have options for events like this in the draw ready to go if need be.

tdgeek

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#2436801 12-Mar-2020 13:32

GV27:

Perhaps I am naive, but my assumption when it comes to pandemic planning is that you have options for events like this in the draw ready to go if need be.

There is, MoH have stated that all along. It started at the start of this, based around the outbreak, not financial. Robertson has already stated what measures they will have, that they can happen quickly, and will be targeted. Detail to come.Happily, it wont be a mass coverall where some of the funds hit the correct mark and the rest is wasted. Banks have been talked to they are ready. IRD is ready to help without filling in 25 triplicate forms :-) TBH it all seems well thought out, and its moveable. I guess its trendy to treat it like another Kiwibuild, but this Govts financial management is conservative. I'm sure a business will be in the media saying they didnt get enough and the world will end. You heard it here first :-)

I dont have an issue with the assistance that will be provided, it wont be perfect on day one as its a heavily moving target.

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#2436804 12-Mar-2020 13:37

mrdrifter:

Mahon:

... not use overcrowded public transport unless necessary.

I actually think this is where the government should be encouraging the likes of Metlink in Wellington to add additional carriages to the trains. Metlink obviously want to minimise the number of carriages and they don't really care if everyone is packed in like sardines as long as we all pay for our tickets. It's the norm in the mornings and afternoons right now for it to be standing room only with quite significant overflow. If they simply added an additional carriage set on to some of these services it would help reduce the close contact that is being forced.

There aren't many spare Matangi units at peak times, they are already running six- and eight-car trains, and if they have more than a couple of two-car units out of action they have to cancel trains or run them with fewer units.

I think they have to run a driver, a train manager, and one conductor for each two-car unit, so running extra units in off-peak times would require extra staff who may or may not be available and cost extra money.

More than half the running costs already come out of rates, the tickets only make a contribution.
Your suggestion would cause lucky GWRC ratepayers to have to dig even deeper than usually

alexx

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#2436821 12-Mar-2020 13:57

GV27:

Mahon:

We have a major financial crisis looming and nothing yet in place.

Robertson has said there'll be an announcement 'next week'.

The virus does not seem to take weekends off.

So our five cases could conceivably be 20+ by the time Monday rolls around. Presumably we will import a few more when the AGP finishes on Monday/Tuesday.

Then businesses have to be able to access funding and provide any documents required for assessments etc.

Many will be spending time managing their cashflow in the lead-up to an unusually quiet year end. Many businesses are not ready for this level of disruption at this time of year.

But an announcement is coming next week. So it's all good.

If we are going to cancel Pasifika Festival this weekend, I guess that also means we cancel the Blues game at Eden Park on the 14th? Oddly enough I don't hear anyone calling for the rugby season to be cancelled. Even training for a contact sport has risks.

We have 5 cases, with no new cases this week and one of those cases being discharged from hospital earlier this week. So we could soon be down to 4 active cases. Apparently we have 1-2 others under observation, including someone who went to the Tool concert where one positive case attended, but still no new positive cases.

For there to be 20 new cases on Monday, you'd probably need most of those 20 cases to be showing symptoms today and getting tested tomorrow. I'm sure it will get worse, but we are a long way from those countries in Europe with thousands of cases, or even Australia with 127 cases - 5 cases per million.

Yes, I agree that the Melbourne F1 is a risk for us, not just Australia. Two Italian teams, known positive cases in two teams and held in a state with community transmission. But do we ban those Melbourne Grand Prix visitors from coming home, or do we tell them to self-isolate?

When we start to see community transmission here, we need to make some changes, but that could still be many weeks away, or perhaps it will be sooner,

The real problem is that the public won't accept severe restrictions until they know it's spreading.

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