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frankv
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  #2705866 11-May-2021 09:45
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[quoted] Scott3:

 

Health services must now record people's details, but a Chinese wall will protect this information from immigration officials:

 

[/quoted]

 

A Huawei router, you mean? ;)

 

[quoted]

 

Northland opening vaccinations to over 50's ahead of the rest of the country, with walk in's, and without online bookings etc went bad as predicted by many on here.  

 

They got overwhelmed with demand. Got lots of media coverage that they were turning away people out of region.

 

[/quoted]

 

Which fairly clearly shows that the "lack of demand" in Northland is not really a thing.

 

 

It has come to the media's attention that a lot of border workers (i.e. contractors on ports, airline ground staff) are not covered in the border worker vaccination order, and a decent chunk are yet to be vaccinated:

 

 

Define "border worker". The example I saw on TV was an electrician? contractor who had worked in an MIQ hotel once in the past, and *might* work there sometime in the future. There will be a large number of these increasingly tenuous connections to the border. Whilst it would be a good idea to vaccinate them before their next visit, (a) there's a good chance that will happen anyway, and (b) their last visit occurred without them becoming infected, so their next visit can be handled the same way.

 

 

[quoted] sbiddle:

 

The fact the MoH now say the Papatoetoe High student was the initial source and not the mother working in the airline laundry is quite significant, and the fact the MoH now think the most leading hypothesis was 7 weeks of undetected spread back to the genomic link which was a MIQ case in December is quite extraordinary.

 

[/quoted]

 

Interesting. Would mean a chain of transmission 3 - 8 people long, each of whom all transmission other than a single one resulted in the cluster burning out. Until it hit the school that is...

 

 

Yeah... I don't see that as credible. R0 for the disease is 5.7, so three, let alone 8, people each asymptomatic and infecting only 1 other person, becomes hugely improbable (1 chance in a million, perhaps?); all of them would need to be super-NON-spreaders. Think how fast covid spread in early 2020. It seems much more likely that the mother did get it first, although perhaps not at the time/place where suspected. Whilst the genome varies with time and location, it's entirely possible that the same genome is still in circulation 7 weeks later. But perhaps MoH eliminated all the other possibilities...“Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.” - Sherlock Home




Fred99
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  #2705893 11-May-2021 10:39
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frankv:

 

Yeah... I don't see that as credible. R0 for the disease is 5.7, so three, let alone 8, people each asymptomatic and infecting only 1 other person, becomes hugely improbable (1 chance in a million, perhaps?)

 

 

R0 is an average figure in a particular population.  And IIRC, the R0 for C-19 is estimated at ~ 3 (not 5.7).  That's not to say that calculated R0 can't be much higher, I think the early outbreak clusters in NZ were studied, indicating an even higher R0, but that in for example the group from the wedding in Bluff, so probably not "average" population distribution, nor "average" behaviour.  (Big party with dancing and singing, one infected person, very quickly there were ~100 cases).

 

If the outbreak was initially confined to a group of young people, predominantly asymptomatic and not shedding large numbers of virions - and there's also evidence that some younger people may be immune - the R0 will be much lower.  I think it's quite probable that the R0 could hover around 1 in some groups and snuff out - unless it spreads to a susceptible group with an inherently higher R0 (with low probability of asymptomatic cases).

 

You saw the impact of social behaviour patterns and hand hygiene etc on the R0 of influenza in NZ last year.  Normal R0 is about the same as C-19, but we basically didn't have any seasonal flu cases. (edit - R0 for "seasonal" flu is much lower than for C19 - but probably because it's not circulating in a naive population).


frankv
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  #2705903 11-May-2021 11:24
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I got that 5.7 figure from a website... I think it is for the UK variant, whereas the older strains were about 3.

 

I don't think our social behaviour is much better now than in February/March last year, except perhaps masks on public transport.

 

But, yes, I agree, the R0 *could* hover around 1, but ballpark I'd say it's about 1% chance at each link in the chain that they only infect 1 other person, hence 1 in a million for 3 links. People circulate in many different groups, and not all groups are exclusively young people. Particularly, it's very surprising that none of the other parents got infected. And that everyone was asymptomatic, or near enough that they didn't go and get tested.

 

 




DS248
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  #2705904 11-May-2021 11:29
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DS248
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  #2705917 11-May-2021 11:53
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frankv:

 

...  “Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.” - Sherlock Home

 

 

As in Sherlock Holmes? 😁

 

(Or perhaps more correctly, Arthur Conan Doyle)


kiwifidget
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  #2705952 11-May-2021 13:25
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The brother-in-law had a booking to get his jab at Highbrook today.

 

Drove up from Pukekohe, waited an hour in the queue, and then everyone was told to go home.

 

It would appear health and safety pulled the plug as traffic management was causing issues.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300263547/covid19-up-to-fivehour-waits-and-long-queues-at-auckland-vaccination-centre

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300301660/covid19-people-mistakenly-turned-away-from-vaccination-centre-in-south-auckland

 

It must be the worst managed vax centre in the country.

 

I hope by the time my turn comes around this crap is all sorted.





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Fred99
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  #2705953 11-May-2021 13:34
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frankv:

 

I don't think our social behaviour is much better now than in February/March last year, except perhaps masks on public transport.

 

 

So far it has been "good enough" when needed to reduce the R0 below 1 in all CT outbreaks in NZ.
Or we've just been incredibly lucky...  many times.

 

But, yes, I agree, the R0 *could* hover around 1, but ballpark I'd say it's about 1% chance at each link in the chain that they only infect 1 other person, hence 1 in a million for 3 links.

 

I think that we've had enough untraceable to border cases in NZ now to say that the chance of a small CT outbreak lingering then "snuffing out" is far more probable than that.  Then especially when it's involving school age kids - generally something like half as susceptible to become infected if exposed, and far less contagious if they do.  If the cases we have had in schools had similar R0 in that population to that in the general public, we'd have been doomed long ago.  

 

 


 
 
 

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wellygary
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  #2705973 11-May-2021 14:22
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Now it looks like its VICs turn to have a case from faulty/leaky MIQ??... Although it looks like they arrived via MIQ in SA..

 

"The Department of Health said the man, aged in his 30s, had recently returned to Australia from overseas and completed his hotel quarantine in South Australia.

 

"He arrived in Victoria and returned to his home in Wollert on 4 May and developed symptoms on 8 May," the department said.

 

"He got tested yesterday, 10 May, and returned a positive result this morning."

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-11/victoria-covid-19-case-man-north-of-melbourne/100131038

 

 


frankv
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  #2706072 11-May-2021 14:45
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wellygary:

 

"The Department of Health said the man, aged in his 30s, had recently returned to Australia from overseas and completed his hotel quarantine in South Australia.

 

"He arrived in Victoria and returned to his home in Wollert on 4 May and developed symptoms on 8 May," the department said.

 

 

Sounds like he caught it near the end of his MIQ.

 

 


GeekGuy
590 posts

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  #2706078 11-May-2021 14:54
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kiwifidget:

 

The brother-in-law had a booking to get his jab at Highbrook today.

 

Drove up from Pukekohe, waited an hour in the queue, and then everyone was told to go home.

 

It would appear health and safety pulled the plug as traffic management was causing issues.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300263547/covid19-up-to-fivehour-waits-and-long-queues-at-auckland-vaccination-centre

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300301660/covid19-people-mistakenly-turned-away-from-vaccination-centre-in-south-auckland

 

It must be the worst managed vax centre in the country.

 

I hope by the time my turn comes around this crap is all sorted.

 

 

I got my first one done at Manurewa Marae, got there at 12:30 pm and got out at 4:00 pm.

 

Also bumped into an old boss there and she said her husband had a booking at Highbrook, got there and it was closed for the day.

 

While at Manurewa Marae, one of the staff said that they cannot refuse anyone a covid injection but you will need to have an appointment and had a card to contact for an appointment.

 

Whether they gave an appointment would probably be another story.


wellygary
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  #2706084 11-May-2021 15:09
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frankv:

 

wellygary:

 

"The Department of Health said the man, aged in his 30s, had recently returned to Australia from overseas and completed his hotel quarantine in South Australia.

 

"He arrived in Victoria and returned to his home in Wollert on 4 May and developed symptoms on 8 May," the department said.

 

 

Sounds like he caught it near the end of his MIQ.

 

 

Yeah, I guess the separation of guests failed at some point... I'm expecting more calls for custom built facilities....


Handle9
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  #2706085 11-May-2021 15:11
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Zero deaths reported yesterday in England, the first time in 14 months. This is quite wonderful.


wellygary
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  #2706172 11-May-2021 16:34
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More facts still needed, and we need to wait for the genome sequencing, but I think we might be close to winner here (- or it could be 7 weeks of silent community transmission )

 

 

 

"South Australia's Chief Public Health Officer, Nicola Spurrier, said the man was discharged from her state's hotel quarantine program on May 4, the same day he returned to Victoria.

 

She said the possibility the man caught the virus while he was in hotel quarantine was "right at the top of our mind" given quarantine transmission had occurred in other states during the pandemic.

 

Professor Spurrier said the man was staying in a quarantine hotel next door to a traveller who tested positive to the virus on May 4."

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-11/victoria-covid-19-case-man-north-of-melbourne/100131038

 

 

 

 


Batman

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  #2706174 11-May-2021 16:40
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staying next door to traveller - but is it the same genome as the traveller?


wellygary
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  #2706175 11-May-2021 16:44
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Batman:

 

staying next door to traveller - but is it the same genome as the traveller?

 

 

We don't know yet. I'm guessing we wont get that till tomorrow at the earliest


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