2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2706180 11-May-2021 17:02

Handle9:

Zero deaths reported yesterday in England, the first time in 14 months. This is quite wonderful.

Yes. good news, though for UK as a whole there were 4 deaths (all in Wales). But possibly in part a bit of 'weekend' effect?

UK C19 deaths for the last week were 4, 27, 13, 15, 5, 2, 4 (May 4-10 incl), and average of 10 deaths/day vs an average of 2.195 new cases/day (~0.5%) - all Worldometers data but similar elsewhere.

Corresponding numbers for Israel are 1.4 deaths average vs 44.5 new cases/day (~3.2%) - from Il govt data. Per capita deaths per day similar to UK but case numbers are a lot lower.

I suspect the difference is that case numbers in Israel have dropped rapidly over the last two months, so the deaths reflect significantly higher case numbers ~3 - 4 weeks ago (case numbers ~6x higher a month ago).

By comparison, UK case numbers have decreased only ~23% over the last month.

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#2706182 11-May-2021 17:12

DS248:

Handle9:

Zero deaths reported yesterday in England, the first time in 14 months. This is quite wonderful.

Yes. good news, though for UK as a whole there were 4 deaths (all in Wales). But possibly in part a bit of 'weekend' effect?

UK C19 deaths for the last week were 4, 27, 13, 15, 5, 2, 4 (May 4-10 incl), and average of 10 deaths/day vs an average of 2.195 new cases/day (~0.5%) - all Worldometers data but similar elsewhere.

Corresponding numbers for Israel are 1.4 deaths average vs 44.5 new cases/day (~3.2%) - from Il govt data. Per capita deaths per day similar to UK but case numbers are a lot lower.

I suspect the difference is that case numbers in Israel have dropped rapidly over the last two months, so the deaths reflect significantly higher case numbers ~3 - 4 weeks ago (case numbers ~6x higher a month ago).

By comparison, UK case numbers have decreased only ~23% over the last month.

3 months ago the UK had ~1200 deaths a day. It's a phenomenal drop

DS248

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#2706188 11-May-2021 17:38

Handle9:

...

3 months ago the UK had ~1200 deaths a day. It's a phenomenal drop

Fully agree.

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#2706189 11-May-2021 17:39

DS248:

Handle9:

...

3 months ago the UK had ~1200 deaths a day. It's a phenomenal drop

Fully agree.

It's almost like vaccines actually work.

DS248

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#2706192 11-May-2021 17:53

Handle9:

...

It's almost like actually vaccines work.

Will be interesting to see the change in UK case numbers over the next month.

Currently 53% of people in UK have had a first dose, approximately same as Israel ~2 months ago, though they had a bit higher % fully vaccinated at that time.

In the following month (say 4 Mar - 3 Apr) there was an 11 fold reduction^ in case numbers in Israel (& ~6 fold reduction since then).

(^ that was off very high per capita case numbers though)

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#2706197 11-May-2021 18:03

wellygary:

Yeah, I guess the separation of guests failed at some point... I'm expecting more calls for custom built facilities....

I get that, and I imagine that in the future all the lessons learned will do that. x amount of facilities designed for their prime purpose, PLUS for future pandemic use

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#2706198 11-May-2021 18:03

Handle9:

It's almost like vaccines actually work.

almost. need to know what happens when they come out of lockdown, and get hit with the new strains

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#2706200 11-May-2021 18:10

In another example of "why we can't have nice things"

https://twitter.com/vincristine/status/1391961191312871424

So today covid swabbed a person who has relatives that arrived from Australia on Thursday. Arrived with flu symptoms they had travelled with and not revealed to the airlines. This is why I am not confident in the Australia bubble

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#2706202 11-May-2021 18:16

duckDecoy:

In another example of "why we can't have nice things"

https://twitter.com/vincristine/status/1391961191312871424

So today covid swabbed a person who has relatives that arrived from Australia on Thursday. Arrived with flu symptoms they had travelled with and not revealed to the airlines. This is why I am not confident in the Australia bubble

i don't know why but every time i click on your link it will show me this picture somewhere on the page

sbiddle

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#2706283 11-May-2021 20:30

wellygary:

Now it looks like its VICs turn to have a case from faulty/leaky MIQ??... Although it looks like they arrived via MIQ in SA..

"The Department of Health said the man, aged in his 30s, had recently returned to Australia from overseas and completed his hotel quarantine in South Australia.

"He arrived in Victoria and returned to his home in Wollert on 4 May and developed symptoms on 8 May," the department said.

"He got tested yesterday, 10 May, and returned a positive result this morning."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-11/victoria-covid-19-case-man-north-of-melbourne/100131038

I still don't understand why everybody who goes through MIQ isn't required to get a test ~5 days after leaving. I know experts (I'm thinking Dr Michael Baker from memory) had called for this, but neither NZ or Aussie seems to have implemented it.

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#2706286 11-May-2021 20:52

sbiddle:
wellygary:

Now it looks like its VICs turn to have a case from faulty/leaky MIQ??... Although it looks like they arrived via MIQ in SA..

"The Department of Health said the man, aged in his 30s, had recently returned to Australia from overseas and completed his hotel quarantine in South Australia.

"He arrived in Victoria and returned to his home in Wollert on 4 May and developed symptoms on 8 May," the department said.

"He got tested yesterday, 10 May, and returned a positive result this morning."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-11/victoria-covid-19-case-man-north-of-melbourne/100131038

I still don't understand why everybody who goes through MIQ isn't required to get a test ~5 days after leaving. I know experts (I'm thinking Dr Michael Baker from memory) had called for this, but neither NZ or Aussie seems to have implemented it.

Herding cats is probably easier to manage

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#2706314 11-May-2021 22:35

Handle9:
sbiddle:

I still don't understand why everybody who goes through MIQ isn't required to get a test ~5 days after leaving. I know experts (I'm thinking Dr Michael Baker from memory) had called for this, but neither NZ or Aussie seems to have implemented it.

Herding cats is probably easier to manage

Probably this.

Inevitable that some (many) passengers won't show for their Releases + 5 day test. Public expectation will be for near 100% testing, but that isn't going to happen.

Either the government will need to use charge people with breaching this condition, track them down, arrest them, and if they still refuse the test take them to court etc... Or they will turn a blind eye to those that don't show.

Both outcomes have the government & health officials coming off looking bad, especially the latter if somebody who doesn't take their 5 day test subsequently is found to be positive...

Daynger

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#2706326 12-May-2021 00:38

duckDecoy:

In another example of "why we can't have nice things"

https://twitter.com/vincristine/status/1391961191312871424

So today covid swabbed a person who has relatives that arrived from Australia on Thursday. Arrived with flu symptoms they had travelled with and not revealed to the airlines. This is why I am not confident in the Australia bubble

I hope the swabber has reported the swabee to MOH.

The van full of guys with flamethrowers should have been on the way straight away.

sbiddle

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#2706346 12-May-2021 07:18

Scott3:

Inevitable that some (many) passengers won't show for their Releases + 5 day test. Public expectation will be for near 100% testing, but that isn't going to happen.

Either the government will need to use charge people with breaching this condition, track them down, arrest them, and if they still refuse the test take them to court etc... Or they will turn a blind eye to those that don't show.

Both outcomes have the government & health officials coming off looking bad, especially the latter if somebody who doesn't take their 5 day test subsequently is found to be positive...

I realise it's a catch 22 situation but surely 50% of people showing for testing is better than nobody being tested. If somebody who doesn't show for a test subsequently tests positive there will be outrage, but I think it'll be mostly directed at the person rather than the MoH or Govt.

We know the accuracy of instant tests can be lower for people who have lower Ct values, but maybe giving everybody instant tests is also an option.

I also don't understand why we're not vaccinating everybody arriving into MIQ on their first day - likewise I believe every person leaving NZ who will be returning should be entitled to be vaccinated before they travel.

DS248

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#2706441 12-May-2021 09:55

All people 18 and over in Nauru have now received their first vaccine dose (all ~7,000 that is).

https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/442351/nauru-vaccinates-entire-adult-population

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