2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2714358 28-May-2021 10:07

Batman: 18 seconds. These hotels look like cruise ships on land.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-18-seconds-all-it-took-for-the-latest-australian-cluster-to-spread/DJKYJXM2K34TMC5F5NYBQLC3SQ/

In that article

The revelations over the growing cluster come as Victorians take to the streets to protest the state's latest lockdown laws, following the recent outbreak.

trig42

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#2714375 28-May-2021 10:30

I think if this same thing had unfolded in Auckland (or anywhere else in NZ, but most likely, Auckland), we would have been in Level 3 a lot sooner than Melbourne was locked down. any CT and Ashley/Jacinda and Chris will have locked us down.

wellygary

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#2714381 28-May-2021 10:50

trig42:

I think if this same thing had unfolded in Auckland (or anywhere else in NZ, but most likely, Auckland), we would have been in Level 3 a lot sooner than Melbourne was locked down. any CT and Ashley/Jacinda and Chris will have locked us down.

There was no lockdown with the Northland Case that came out of MIQ

DS248

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#2714454 28-May-2021 11:12

Fred99:

sbiddle:

There is no doubt that there has been a lot of political spin from Hipkins, and you can really only draw two conclusions from this - one being that he genuinely has been sucked in himself or that he's been trying to hype up the rollout to make things sound a lot better that the situation really was. Personally I think it's a combination of both.

If someone says to me that a long term project was going to start "in July" and it really mattered what date in July, then I'd ask. I wouldn't assume early, late or any date.

...

The term used was not "in July" (or "in May" in the case of Group 3).

It said "from July" (& "from May"). Very different in this context.

While the actual day is in reality scarcely critical, it is quite reasonable for "from May" to be interpreted as from near the beginning of May.

Except if people had dug down, located the published schedule (spreadsheet) and made a few calculations, it would have been quickly apparent that they were intending to vaccinate only a small fraction of Group three before July, despite the "from May" for that group. Not something the bulk of Group 3 would have done though (or would be expected to do).

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#2714456 28-May-2021 11:22

DS248:

Fred99:

If someone says to me that a long term project was going to start "in July" and it really mattered what date in July, then I'd ask. I wouldn't assume early, late or any date.

...

The term used was not "in July" (or "in May" in the case of Group 3).

It said "from July" (& "from May"). Very different in this context.

While the actual day is in reality scarcely critical, it is quite reasonable for "from May" to be interpreted as from near the beginning of May.

Except if people had dug down, located the published schedule (spreadsheet) and made a few calculations, it would have been quickly apparent that they were intending to vaccinate only a small fraction of Group three before July, despite the "from May" for that group. Not something the bulk of Group 3 would have done though (or would be expected to do).

Don't agree - I'm a project manager and we routinely refer to "from July" " from 2021" "from xyz" in timelines, particularly during the early phases where we're still working stuff out or requirements aren't known, and particularly in projects where things change. This is generally interpreted as there will be some work beginning at an unspecified point in July/2021/xyz - but not full steam ahead, and not at a more specific time. At some point we come back and lock in more concrete timetables with stakeholders, but "from July" does not and has never meant "on the 1st of July this will be in full swing".

sbiddle

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#2714466 28-May-2021 11:34

wellygary:

trig42:

I think if this same thing had unfolded in Auckland (or anywhere else in NZ, but most likely, Auckland), we would have been in Level 3 a lot sooner than Melbourne was locked down. any CT and Ashley/Jacinda and Chris will have locked us down.

There was no lockdown with the Northland Case that came out of MIQ

Nor the last 2 positive cases in MIQ workers which were CT in everything but name since the MoH decided MIQ workers who are free to roam the community while infected and not vaccinated are no longer considered CT.

There is nothing to suggest NZ would have entered lockdown any quicker than Melbourne did. Up until Wednesday night when the decision was made every single case had been contract traced and positively linked so there were no unknowns. This is the exact same process that would have occurred in NZ and it's likely we would have followed the exact same plan.

Fred99

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#2714484 28-May-2021 12:01

Only 4 new CT cases in Victoria overnight. Can't see a mention of whether these are from known/traced contacts or from general community testing - but presumably if it had been the latter they'd have said.

Anyway, not good - but not terrible, if they get through the next few days without cases popping up at random, maybe it'll be contained sooner rather than later (or not at all).

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DS248

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#2714488 28-May-2021 12:07

antonknee:

DS248:

...

The term used was not "in July" (or "in May" in the case of Group 3).

It said "from July" (& "from May"). Very different in this context.

While the actual day is in reality scarcely critical, it is quite reasonable for "from May" to be interpreted as from near the beginning of May.

Except if people had dug down, located the published schedule (spreadsheet) and made a few calculations, it would have been quickly apparent that they were intending to vaccinate only a small fraction of Group three before July, despite the "from May" for that group. Not something the bulk of Group 3 would have done though (or would be expected to do).

Don't agree - I'm a project manager and we routinely refer to "from July" " from 2021" "from xyz" in timelines, particularly during the early phases where we're still working stuff out or requirements aren't known, and particularly in projects where things change. This is generally interpreted as there will be some work beginning at an unspecified point in July/2021/xyz - but not full steam ahead, and not at a more specific time. At some point we come back and lock in more concrete timetables with stakeholders, but "from July" does not and has never meant "on the 1st of July this will be in full swing".

Fine in your context but if an item is advertised as being available 'from July' it is quite likely many in the general public would interpret that as meaning the item would be available from near the start of July rather than from the end of July.

I never said "1st of ...", nor "in full swing". It has always been indicated that the program would ramp up.

DS248

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#2714490 28-May-2021 12:13

Fred99:

Only 4 new CT cases in Victoria overnight. Can't see a mention of whether these are from known/traced contacts or from general community testing - but presumably if it had been the latter they'd have said.

Anyway, not good - but not terrible, if they get through the next few days without cases popping up at random, maybe it'll be contained sooner rather than later (or not at all).

According to ABC, there were 4 new 'Local - known' cases and no 'Local - unknown' ones

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704

Edit:

This possibly a better link re the 4 new cases

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-28/victoria-covid-cases-numbers-restrictions/100172268

antonknee

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#2714493 28-May-2021 12:18

DS248:

Fine in your context but if an item is advertised as being available 'from July' it is quite likely many in the general public would interpret that as meaning the item would be available from near the start of July rather than from the end of July.

I never said "1st of ...", nor "in full swing". It has always been indicated that the program would ramp up.

No I didn't mean to imply you had said that - but the way some people are carrying on about 'from July' they seem to be thinking along these lines.

I just don't see this as a big deal at all, but wee seem to be getting the typical overreactions here and on the likes of Newstalk ZB claiming that the government and MOH are lying through their teeth and bungling everything even though "from July" is still "from July".

wellygary

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#2714498 28-May-2021 12:25

Fred99:

Only 4 new CT cases in Victoria overnight. Can't see a mention of whether these are from known/traced contacts or from general community testing - but presumably if it had been the latter they'd have said.

Anyway, not good - but not terrible, if they get through the next few days without cases popping up at random, maybe it'll be contained sooner rather than later (or not at all).

4 cases is good, 47,000 tests was the better number..... If they keep that up for the week they will hopefully be able to smother it...

Also while not likely to help immediately, boosting the Vaccine rollout should help in the future...

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#2714510 28-May-2021 12:52

It's a shame they can't go around vaccinating everyone while they're off work for a few days

KrazyKid

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#2714534 28-May-2021 13:49

Batman: It's a shame they can't go around vaccinating everyone while they're off work for a few days

They are trying there best. They have opened up vaccinations to 40+ years old in Victoria. The bookings line has been swamped (77,000 calls in 15 mins at one stage) as have the walk up vaccination centers.

Victoria managed 17,223 vaccinations yesterday with some more capacity left to grow.
To give it some context - 5% of all vaccinations done in to date in Victoria happened yesterday!

And as for Aussies over here - good to see queues at some testing centers.
https://www.stuff.co.nz./national/health/coronavirus/300319130/auckland-covid19-testing-centre-swamped-after-melbourne-outbreak

Oblivian

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#2714537 28-May-2021 13:53

Batman: It's a shame they can't go around vaccinating everyone while they're off work for a few days

Raises a good point.

With one of the previous localised clusters. They basically went down street by street with a loud hailer/knocking and got people out to swab them in bulk before moving to the next street.

You do wonder if similar could be done offering a jab instead and a few seats on the side of the road for monitoring. At least peoples addresses would be confirmed and hard to forge!

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#2714595 28-May-2021 14:15

KrazyKid:

Batman: It's a shame they can't go around vaccinating everyone while they're off work for a few days

They are trying there best. They have opened up vaccinations to 40+ years old in Victoria. The bookings line has been swamped (77,000 calls in 15 mins at one stage) as have the walk up vaccination centers.

Victoria managed 17,223 vaccinations yesterday with some more capacity left to grow.
To give it some context - 5% of all vaccinations done in to date in Victoria happened yesterday!

And as for Aussies over here - good to see queues at some testing centers.
https://www.stuff.co.nz./national/health/coronavirus/300319130/auckland-covid19-testing-centre-swamped-after-melbourne-outbreak

nothing like a scare to get A into G

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