2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2743159 12-Jul-2021 14:28

mattwnz: The NZ government really need to incentivize people to get the vaccine. We need to be well over 90% which isn't going to happen unless people are incentivized.

Just the fact of 15 year-olds and under, around 20.1% of the population*, not being vaccinated means we can't possibly reach 90%. If we say "over 90% of 16 year-olds +" then there's a chance. However, by the time you add in the immuno-compromised, anti-vaxxers, and the vaccine hesitant... over 90% is reasonably unlikely no how matter how much incentive is given. At least not until enough data from other countries who are starting to vaccinate younger people comes in and NZ changes tack when it's deemed safe to do so. 12-15 years are potentially on the cards in the not too distant future but even then we still couldn't possibly get to 90%+ without excluding 0-11 year-olds from the stats.

*According to http://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/

tdgeek

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#2743163 12-Jul-2021 14:47

Dratsab:

mattwnz: The NZ government really need to incentivize people to get the vaccine. We need to be well over 90% which isn't going to happen unless people are incentivized.

Just the fact of 15 year-olds and under, around 20.1% of the population*, not being vaccinated means we can't possibly reach 90%. If we say "over 90% of 16 year-olds +" then there's a chance. However, by the time you add in the immuno-compromised, anti-vaxxers, and the vaccine hesitant... over 90% is reasonably unlikely no how matter how much incentive is given. At least not until enough data from other countries who are starting to vaccinate younger people comes in and NZ changes tack when it's deemed safe to do so. 12-15 years are potentially on the cards in the not too distant future but even then we still couldn't possibly get to 90%+ without excluding 0-11 year-olds from the stats.

*According to http://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/

While you wouldn't wish it on anyone, The NSW situ will wake a few up, at least the vaccine hesitant

openmedia

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#2743166 12-Jul-2021 15:01

tdgeek:

While you wouldn't wish it on anyone, The NSW situ will wake a few up, at least the vaccine hesitant

You really would hope so, yet I'm hearing more people both here and in OZ going the other way and saying they definitely won't have any of the mRNA based vaccines.

Generally known online as OpenMedia, now working for Red Hat APAC as a Technology Evangelist and Portfolio Architect. Still playing with MythTV and digital media on the side.

Fred99

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#2743167 12-Jul-2021 15:01

<sigh>

DS248

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#2743168 12-Jul-2021 15:05

Dratsab:

...

Just the fact of 15 year-olds and under, around 20.1% of the population*, not being vaccinated means we can't possibly reach 90%. If we say "over 90% of 16 year-olds +" then there's a chance. However, by the time you add in the immuno-compromised, anti-vaxxers, and the vaccine hesitant... over 90% is reasonably unlikely no how matter how much incentive is given. At least not until enough data from other countries who are starting to vaccinate younger people comes in and NZ changes tack when it's deemed safe to do so. 12-15 years are potentially on the cards in the not too distant future but even then we still couldn't possibly get to 90%+ without excluding 0-11 year-olds from the stats.

*According to http://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/

Looking at Israeli data, not unexpectedly the biggest challenges will lie in the sub-50 age groups. Their first jab vaccination rate is at ~90% for 50-69 year olds, and 93% - 95% in older age groups. From recollection, I think UK rates for older age groups are also in 90%+ territory.

Rates are 'reasonably' high in younger age groups** (78.5% for 20-29 to 86% for 40-49) but are barely creeping up, despite the recent surge in cases caused by relaxation of restrictions.

The rates for older age groups suggest that 90% - 95% should be achievable but clearly a lot more work needs to be done with younger people.

I do wonder if it would not be better to drop the age priority focus, apart from say 80+ year olds. Possibly sending a wrong message to a group that will be difficult to incentivise?

** All figures are for first dose. The figures for fully vaccinated are though only 3% - 5% lower (except for 20-29 where it is 7% lower)

tdgeek

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#2743172 12-Jul-2021 15:13

I would just run a TV/media campaign. many wont be convinced, its up to them to review their stance as things overseas escalate. I certainly don't want my taxpayer dollars used to ask them to get vaccinated. Its on their head as long as adequate efforts have been made to educate them.

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#2743176 12-Jul-2021 15:20

openmedia:

tdgeek:

While you wouldn't wish it on anyone, The NSW situ will wake a few up, at least the vaccine hesitant

You really would hope so, yet I'm hearing more people both here and in OZ going the other way and saying they definitely won't have any of the mRNA based vaccines.

What's their reasoning?

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#2743177 12-Jul-2021 15:21

tdgeek:

I would just run a TV/media campaign. many wont be convinced, its up to them to review their stance as things overseas escalate. I certainly don't want my taxpayer dollars used to ask them to get vaccinated. Its on their head as long as adequate efforts have been made to educate them.

You mean like this.. It's gone down like a lead balloon calling for it to be pulled before it even went on TV

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-outrage-over-australian-governments-graphic-advertisement/QXERGG5ION567LPOERALIFAKXA/

tehgerbil

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#2743178 12-Jul-2021 15:22

We will get another outbreak the way our Government are handling this.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300355450/covid19-nz-more-than-50-transtasman-travellers-caught-without-predeparture-test-in-last-week

Stuff revealed on Friday that despite the Government requiring that all passengers arriving from Australia have a negative Covid-19 test taken in the 72 hours before their flight, New Zealand Customs officials were only checking the test results of about half of those arriving in New Zealand.

Those checks have found more than 50 people arriving in the country without a valid test since last Tuesday.

So we're not checking results, and of those we do check 50 or so were noncompliant....

I am speechless. How is the travel bubble allowed to continued when it's leakier than a sieve.

Oblivian

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#2743179 12-Jul-2021 15:24

Technofreak:

What's their reasoning?

My guess is the propaganda being circulated (elderly neighbour not free from health issues is now refusing it thanks to 'facts' on a booklet that he got from somewhere and is telling his friends and neighbours all about it) that makes the letters close to dNA, which means baddmmkaaayy. It alters it doncha know!

Or so they would tend to suggest.

Oblivian

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#2743181 12-Jul-2021 15:26

tehgerbil:
Stuff revealed on Friday that despite the Government requiring that all passengers arriving from Australia have a negative Covid-19 test taken in the 72 hours before their flight, New Zealand Customs officials were only checking the test results of about half of those arriving in New Zealand.

Those checks have found more than 50 people arriving in the country without a valid test since last Tuesday.

So we're not checking results, and of those we do check 50 or so were noncompliant....

Pretty much how I called it a few pages back then. Likely a bunch of fibbers or stupid people.

Ask most, spot check for proof only few. Expect parties on both ends to take care of it at least once but not enough to be annoying and make people straight up get abusive.

tdgeek

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#2743183 12-Jul-2021 15:31

Oblivian:

tdgeek:

I would just run a TV/media campaign. many wont be convinced, its up to them to review their stance as things overseas escalate. I certainly don't want my taxpayer dollars used to ask them to get vaccinated. Its on their head as long as adequate efforts have been made to educate them.

You mean like this.. It's gone down like a lead balloon calling for it to be pulled before it even went on TV

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-outrage-over-australian-governments-graphic-advertisement/QXERGG5ION567LPOERALIFAKXA/

I'll watch later. We have done ads for speeding. car crashes etc, probably work ok here. Is it the base message of get vaccinated or is it too graphic and upsetting for those who have had family affected?

Fred99

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#2743188 12-Jul-2021 15:35

Oblivian:

Technofreak:

What's their reasoning?

My guess is the propaganda being circulated (elderly neighbour not free from health issues is now refusing it thanks to 'facts' on a booklet that he got from somewhere and is telling his friends and neighbours all about it) that makes the letters close to dNA, which means baddmmkaaayy. It alters it doncha know!

Or so they would tend to suggest.

My wife has a great uncle, almost 90 years old, still an active lay-preacher in an evangelical church movement, now thoroughly convinced that the disease was created deliberately and all the vaccines are some mind-control implant, blah blah antichrist, blah blah Ardern is in cahoots with Xi and the Clintons, whatever.

Random full-on nutter? Why sure he is, but he believes it 100% - he's very intent on "saving" others and god has given him an audience.

Oblivian

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#2743192 12-Jul-2021 15:43

tdgeek:

I'll watch later. We have done ads for speeding. car crashes etc, probably work ok here. Is it the base message of get vaccinated or is it too graphic and upsetting for those who have had family affected?

Their argument seems to be it's too shock and awe on the reality. And too soon for a family given one of the ICU cases is of the age of the actor. (and it's not lifelike enough)

wellygary

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#2743193 12-Jul-2021 15:43

Fred99:

Random full-on nutter? Why sure he is, but he believes it 100% - he's very intent on "saving" others and god has given him an audience.

and eventually when the border opens those that are not vaccinated will be exposed to significant risk.....

Its pretty easy to maintain a belief against COVID in NZ when there is no community transmission,

its a whole lot harder to maintain that belief if your friends and relatives are dying around you....

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