2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2744813 15-Jul-2021 21:46

dafman:

Travel pause announced tomorrow for Victoria.

Pause, stop, open, pause, stop, open, pause, stop, open.

It’s getting farcical. Time has come to shut it down until further notice and focus on vaccinating.

It was pritty clear from the start with the Pauses to WA that the bubble was going to just be about allowing travel when there wern't cases of community transmission.

It has become pretty apparent that the main benefit of the bubble is allow travel to see friends & family. Net economic gain from the bubble seem's negligible. People visiting family are more likely to be willing to travel when allowed, and having their trip extended is likely to be a lesser deal than a tourist.

I think it is fine to keep running, but we need to be super twitchy about pausing it. I think we should be pausing it to all states that have isolating free travel from NSW. At the moment given the situation.

But I am surprised about the level of risk we are willing to carry at the moment, especially with regards to the near miss in wellington. We shouldn't be waiting for states to lock down to pause the bubble. (That leads to us pausing to WA when the risk is low, but staying open to NSW when the case came to wellington).

I think we should be being extremely cautious for the next month or two. The first of many 350,000+ dose weekly shipments landing next week, after a few weeks to ramp up the vaccination rate our vaccination statistics will be looking a bit better with regards to the higher risk population.

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#2744815 15-Jul-2021 21:51

Scott3:

It is reported to be working very well for those who have been issued codes though.

Yep tested it with Chrome and Edge(also whilst booking our appointments) and it was extremely clean and easy to fill in and use.

Vastly different then other government websites(looking at you WINZ and IRD).

Ramblings from a mysterious lady who's into tech. Warning I may often create zingers.

wellygary

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#2744867 15-Jul-2021 22:04

Scott3:

I think we should be being extremely cautious for the next month or two. The first of many 350,000+ dose weekly shipments landing next week, after a few weeks to ramp up the vaccination rate our vaccination statistics will be looking a bit better with regards to the higher risk population.

@300K doses a week you are looking at a dose for 7.5% of the eligible population each week, by the end of August we could have added 30% to the first dose % and another 15% to the 2nd dose,

That could make 1st doses look like 50% of eligible and 2nd ~30% ., by the end of September you could be looking at 65% first and 45% second.(

ANglEAUT

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#2744880 15-Jul-2021 23:01

MaxineN: Yep tested it with Chrome and Edge(also whilst booking our appointments) and it was extremely clean and easy to fill in and use.

Vastly different then other government websites(looking at you WINZ and IRD).

& for some strange reason, it's a health.nz website, not a health.govt.nz website. 😬

Please keep this GZ community vibrant by contributing in a constructive & respectful manner.

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#2744886 15-Jul-2021 23:37

Fred99:

Hanlon's razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity".

There’s certainly plenty of stupidity but the MOH is a dysfunctional mess. This isn’t the first time they have done this sort of thing.

mattwnz

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#2744889 15-Jul-2021 23:45

Scott3:

But I am surprised about the level of risk we are willing to carry at the moment, especially with regards to the near miss in wellington. We shouldn't be waiting for states to lock down to pause the bubble. (That leads to us pausing to WA when the risk is low, but staying open to NSW when the case came to wellington).

I think we should be being extremely cautious for the next month or two. The first of many 350,000+ dose weekly shipments landing next week, after a few weeks to ramp up the vaccination rate our vaccination statistics will be looking a bit better with regards to the higher risk population.

Exactly. We are again not being proactive and looking at when CT is getting detected in Oz. Syndney is a case in point, where they had CT, but delayed lockdowns. If there are cases in OZ where NZ would have locked down, then we should have closed the bubble at that point. IMO the bubble is more a political decision, and once it was opened, it is almost impossible to completely close it again, they will just do these pauses it seems.

But we have significantly increased our risk of getting Covid into the community again in NZ IMO and we have been playing Russian Roulette, and we are only lucky we didn't get a case in Wellington. Once Covid is in the community, it is very difficult and expensive to get out, and can cost billions, but maybe they want another reason to start up the money printing machines again so we match the rest of the world.

mattwnz

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#2744891 15-Jul-2021 23:48

dafman:

Travel pause announced tomorrow for Victoria.

Pause, stop, open, pause, stop, open, pause, stop, open.

It’s getting farcical. Time has come to shut it down until further notice and focus on vaccinating.

It also causes a lot of confusion, and there is the potential for mistakes as a result. Covid will pounce on any mistakes is processes.

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mattwnz

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#2744892 15-Jul-2021 23:51

Fred99:

The Melbourne lockdown seems all but a done deal. And a smart move IMO. Should know after 5:00pm our time.

"Gladys Berejiklian warns that COVID-19 numbers in her state are likely to worsen in NSW tomorrow."

At least Melbourne follow common sense, and know that acting quickly saves lives and means a shorter lockdown if everyone complies.

GV27

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#2744897 16-Jul-2021 06:51

Queensland seems to be holding up okay. That's good for us. I'd imagine anything in the wild in Queensland would be here pretty quickly.

sbiddle

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#2744954 16-Jul-2021 07:43

Scott3:

tdgeek:

We can manage it here, thats well proven. But I like this condition "to complete a health declaration confirming you have not been at a location of interest "

"We can manage it here, thats well proven"

I think we can, but it is incorrect to say that it has been proven. Delta stain is game changing. Suspect it will require the affected city do start at level 4, the rest of that island at level 3, and the other island at level 2, then have each area drop one level each fortnight... Going to be economically expensive.

We have zero experience of managing a Delta outbreak here. We think we're the best in the world at handling Covid - and Delta could well be our undoing if we get CT here because of that arrogant view.

Many global experts originally hit back at Australia's claims of the transmission rates of Delta claiming that they were making things sound worse than they really were. It's pretty clear now that is not the case, and that it truly is very dangerous. Nowhere else has such low levels of Covid and Delta spread that they're able to contact trace and genome sequence every case and the simple fact is the stats don't lie.

Wellington clearly dodged the biggest bullet NZ has so far seen of the whole pandemic, and IMHO it shows vaccines work. Yes a single dose didn't stop infection, but it's pretty clear now that most infected people in Australia are passing the virus to literally every person who is unfortunate to be close enough or in the same room via aerosol spread. You have to draw the conclusion that the viral loading of the Sydney man who was here was significantly reduced by being vaccinated.

Level 2 in Wellington would have been totally incapable of limiting any Delta CT had it occurred in Wellington, and the low testing numbers and inability to ramp up testing quickly put everybody at risk in the first few days.

dafman

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#2744957 16-Jul-2021 07:50

Scott3:

It was pritty clear from the start with the Pauses to WA that the bubble was going to just be about allowing travel when there wern't cases of community transmission.

It has become pretty apparent that the main benefit of the bubble is allow travel to see friends & family. Net economic gain from the bubble seem's negligible.

I think the main reason for the bubble is to placate/prop up Queenstown for the ski season.

The problem is that the Govt is now essentially trying to manage Covid across two countries and that will likely be our undoing with the delta variant.

The border to Aus was closed all of last year, so just six more months while we vaccinate is the sensible way forward IMHO.

sbiddle

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#2744958 16-Jul-2021 07:52

ANglEAUT:

MaxineN: Yep tested it with Chrome and Edge(also whilst booking our appointments) and it was extremely clean and easy to fill in and use.

Vastly different then other government websites(looking at you WINZ and IRD).

& for some strange reason, it's a health.nz website, not a health.govt.nz website. 😬

The fact it's not a govt.nz domain has been a topical point for the last month or so since book my vaccine was officially announced. I've yet to see any explanation why this was not the case.

I'm sure we'll see scammers try and replicate the site at some point, and explaining to the average person that a govt.nz domain offers an additional layer of security would be lost on most people but the fact an official govt website isn't using a govt.nz domain is lost on me.

tdgeek

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#2744968 16-Jul-2021 08:08

sbiddle:

We have zero experience of managing a Delta outbreak here. We think we're the best in the world at handling Covid - and Delta could well be our undoing if we get CT here because of that arrogant view.

We are not arrogant. I dont even read that in the daily clickbait news. Where else has our current situation of being CT free?

When Delta comes here we will lockdown, that's what conservative Kiwis will do. A possible CT in the news and test centres are overrun. And how well or bad that went, its likely to perform better than most other countries even though it wont be perfect

Delta does go to show that the bubbles need not be paused they need to be cancelled until participants in bubble countries are all vaccinated.

GV27

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#2745000 16-Jul-2021 08:43

tdgeek:

We are not arrogant. I dont even read that in the daily clickbait news. Where else has our current situation of being CT free?

When Delta comes here we will lockdown, that's what conservative Kiwis will do. A possible CT in the news and test centres are overrun. And how well or bad that went, its likely to perform better than most other countries even though it wont be perfect

Delta does go to show that the bubbles need not be paused they need to be cancelled until participants in bubble countries are all vaccinated.

Depends how you measure arrogant. Scanning, testing drops off totally until a scare happens, but by that stage it may have gotten a foothold. It's clear it moves faster than anything we've dealt with and our previous responses have benefited from luck more than some people might want to accept.

It's all well and good if those things improve after the fact, but by then it may be too late.

Agreed re: Bubble, perhaps we could have a chat with the Australians about opening an MIQ facility in Australia in an area with low CT (WA?) so that people can do their isolation stint over there before being flown here if repatriation becomes a headache.

tdgeek

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#2745005 16-Jul-2021 08:54

GV27:

Depends how you measure arrogant. Scanning, testing drops off totally until a scare happens, but by that stage it may have gotten a foothold. It's clear it moves faster than anything we've dealt with and our previous responses have benefited from luck more than some people might want to accept.

It's all well and good if those things improve after the fact, but by then it may be too late.

Agreed re: Bubble, perhaps we could have a chat with the Australians about opening an MIQ facility in Australia in an area with low CT (WA?) so that people can do their isolation stint over there before being flown here if repatriation becomes a headache.

Thats human nature, and if its arrogant, all countries are arrogant by orders pf magnitude above NZ

We have MIQ here, I dont see why we need one there. If repatriation becomes a headache, that was the risk for those that went there. I just dont get how much criticism of NZ's response there is. AUS was the gold standard, is it still? And with all the criticism, NZ is clearly incompatible with bubbles it seems. You cant have it both ways

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