2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2745006 16-Jul-2021 08:59

tdgeek:

I just dont get how much criticism of NZ's response there is.

Let me know the number of independent reports you need outlining issues not getting resolved or matching up with what officials were telling people at various points. I'm sure we'll hit it eventually.

But I agree about the bubble, especially if the Australians are just going to live with Covid/Delta - at that point we either have to be mostly vaccinated or we commit to the fortress NZ approach.

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#2745010 16-Jul-2021 09:08

GV27:

Let me know the number of independent reports you need outlining issues not getting resolved or matching up with what officials were telling people at various points. I'm sure we'll hit it eventually.

But I agree about the bubble, especially if the Australians are just going to live with Covid/Delta - at that point we either have to be mostly vaccinated or we commit to the fortress NZ approach.

Im not disputing issues we have had. Clearly less issues than elsewhere if you compare the daily cases each country has. The vast majority of time our cases are ones we happily imported and MIQ'ed and while MIQ has proven to have issues, its hard to argue the overall result. When, and I say when, we get Delta it will probably be via the bubble, it may well already be here, who knows. Should we escape Delta form these bubbles, the next chapter will be post vaccination, thats probably not going to be pretty though.

GV27

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#2745017 16-Jul-2021 09:35

tdgeek:

Im not disputing issues we have had. Clearly less issues than elsewhere if you compare the daily cases each country has. The vast majority of time our cases are ones we happily imported and MIQ'ed and while MIQ has proven to have issues, its hard to argue the overall result. When, and I say when, we get Delta it will probably be via the bubble, it may well already be here, who knows. Should we escape Delta form these bubbles, the next chapter will be post vaccination, thats probably not going to be pretty though.

No, and that's the second bit of our response which sucks: the us component.

There's too many idiots or people who will keep acting like Covid is gone forever, so why should they get the shot or why should they keep scanning in, etc.

It's easy to be lazy when the border is as tightly wound as it is, but if Delta gets through and gets a head start and you only respond to that happening, then we're going to be stuffed.

So yes, our scanning and testing numbers spike when we find out we've had an incursion, but the fact is they shouldn't be dropping off to begin with.

Fred99

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#2745067 16-Jul-2021 09:43

GV27:

But I agree about the bubble, especially if the Australians are just going to live with Covid/Delta - at that point we either have to be mostly vaccinated or we commit to the fortress NZ approach.

Despite the slow response to the outbreak in NSW I can't see that happening anytime soon unless they lose the plot in NSW.

NSW stuff-up result is that instead of a week or two hard lockdown, they're probably going to be in "lockdown lite" - for a month, if they still haven't nailed it, they'll have to keep extending it - or go harder. They can vaccinate as fast as they like, but the timing needed between jabs to get a sufficient level of immunity makes it impossible. Even if they had 10 million doses of vaccine arrive in NSW tomorrow, that doesn't solve the problem right now.

The federal government seems to have been pretty quick to support Vic's lockdown.

The Morrison "exit plan" was just stating the obvious - at some stage in the future the borders will need to open. Timing and the parameters aren't set beyond vague "when there's sufficient vaccination / immunity" etc so that it's safe to do so.

Federal government is funding a 1,000 bed dedicated quarantine facility in Vic - it won't be completed before the end of the year. Contingency for "something that could happen" seems somewhat more forward thinking than NZ. If the next big mutation from Delta (or whatever else is around the corner) could mean that hotel MIQ won't work, NZ is going to be almost completely cut off.

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#2745074 16-Jul-2021 09:59

GV27:

No, and that's the second bit of our response which sucks: the us component.

There's too many idiots or people who will keep acting like Covid is gone forever, so why should they get the shot or why should they keep scanning in, etc.

It's easy to be lazy when the border is as tightly wound as it is, but if Delta gets through and gets a head start and you only respond to that happening, then we're going to be stuffed.

So yes, our scanning and testing numbers spike when we find out we've had an incursion, but the fact is they shouldn't be dropping off to begin with.

To combat inevitable human nature, you could mandate compulsory scanning at all businesses/events and also masks when in public

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#2745087 16-Jul-2021 10:36

tdgeek:

To combat inevitable human nature, you could mandate compulsory scanning at all businesses/events and also masks when in public

Scanning isn't going to save us from an ourbreak. Scanning is there to assist contact tracing, and the fact Delta has outrun NSW and Victorian contact tracers who (and you can argue this all you want) are vastly more proficient at contact tracing than we are means that while it's helpful, it's no silver bullet.

In a situation where we have Bluetooth matches or QR scanning into a location all we can do is send those people a notification telling them this. We can't identify the individual due to the privacy model we have adopted here, so can't contact people directly. This is a very different privacy model to Australia where contact tracers can immediately contact people because they know who they are.

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#2745090 16-Jul-2021 10:41

sbiddle:

Scanning isn't going to save us from an ourbreak. Scanning is there to assist contact tracing, and the fact Delta has outrun NSW and Victorian contact tracers who (and you can argue this all you want) are vastly more proficient at contact tracing than we are means that while it's helpful, it's no silver bullet.

In a situation where we have Bluetooth matches or QR scanning into a location all we can do is send those people a notification telling them this. We can't identify the individual due to the privacy model we have adopted here, so can't contact people directly. This is a very different privacy model to Australia where contact tracers can immediately contact people because they know who they are.

Fair enough, I was more responding to GV who is worried that Kiwis don't scan, hence we could force it

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Fred99

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#2745111 16-Jul-2021 11:35

10 new cases in Vic - all linked (total cases now 24).

But the number of exposure sites is now growing.

Numbers are like Sydney was on about 22 June, but it took NSW three days from then to issue a lockdown "lite" order that only applied to three local government areas. The horse had already bolted. It took NSW until July 9 for a full lockdown, and even that's probably not hard enough.

GV27

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#2745114 16-Jul-2021 11:41

sbiddle:

Scanning isn't going to save us from an ourbreak.

Scanning tells you pretty quickly how big a problem you have and lets you reach people you otherwise have to reach manually.

trig42

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#2745116 16-Jul-2021 11:43

Yep, VICs lockdown is much tighter than NSWs. Most stores are closed to the public (Click and Collect and online working). It's pretty much our Level 3.

I reckon they'll get on top of it. They know what to do, and their population (for the most part) do as well.

Fred99

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#2745154 16-Jul-2021 13:34

97 new cases announced in NSW today.

"Unfortunately, 29 of those we understand were infectious for all of the time they were infectious in the community. This is the number concerning."

"That number of people being infectious in the community keeps going up."

Positive news is that they conducted almost 80,000 tests over the 24 hour period.

Fred99

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#2745158 16-Jul-2021 13:45

So I realise it's partly ad-libbed, as well as some obvious transcription errors, but here's what Berejiklian has said - and it doesn't give me a lot of confidence she's prepared to do what's needed:

"If Dr Chant says to us there are further things we need to introduce to reduce mobility that is what we will do.

"We will not hesitate to do that. I know the sentiment that exists in greater Sydney including with all of us is that we want to end this lockdown as soon as we can. We don't want this to drag on. And we know the community wants us to do more, so long as that means the lockdown is not extended for a longer period. And that is our focus.

"What can we do now to reduce mobility, to make sure that the virus does not spread, but the challenge for us is to make sure any decisions we take moving forward are targeted.

"The worst thing we could do is put in additional measures which don't have the desired effect. That is why it is important for us to focus on the data and information we get from the experts to make sure any additional measures we put in place are going to have the desired effect.

"The worst thing we could do is bring in measures which didn't see those numbers go down. That is our absolute intense, yesterday again, 29 cases infectious in the community."

"We need to get that as close to zero as possible before we can and the lockdown."

"The worst thing we could do is put in additional measures which don't have the desired effect"

I don't think so. There are obvious measures that they could take which should reduce transmission, she admits that "the community wants us to do more", if closing businesses etc for a more complete lockdown is what's needed, they should do it. Her comment suggests they're already doing everything possible that's proven to work - they are not.

JPNZ

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#2745185 16-Jul-2021 14:15

Sydney (and NSW) are paying the price for a weak "lite lockdown" and still it seems as there is FAR too much movement and people not taking it seriously. On the current trajectory they will need at least 4-6 weeks in proper lockdown to get that back to Zero.

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tdgeek

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#2745191 16-Jul-2021 14:25

JPNZ:

Sydney (and NSW) are paying the price for a weak "lite lockdown" and still it seems as there is FAR too much movement and people not taking it seriously. On the current trajectory they will need at least 4-6 weeks in proper lockdown to get that back to Zero.

Given the ease of transmission of Delta, its possible even a solid not lite lockdown may do no more then hold it at arms length. Many people are adding the benefit of stopping their own transmission or themselves getting infected by isolating, but they arent the problem. It seems that just from positive tests, a lot of them were in the community while infectious. And in some cases all throughout the infectious period

ezbee

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#2745205 16-Jul-2021 14:51

Taiwan is containing and slowly choking off their delta outbreak but its a harder longer grind with younger and more mobile cases.

So its possible, though it takes grit, and its expensive, however cost of delta in the community as Fiji is finding out.
Then you have risk of loss of social cohesion like with South Africa ready for a spark that could lead to revolution.

Taiwan reports 14 local COVID cases, 6 deaths
Taiwan reports fewest local COVID cases in over 2 months
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4249048

VIC's go harder gives them a good chance and they have teams that have experience and practice from last time.
They could be a bit miffed that NSWs go softly approach seeded their outbreak.
As long as this continues they have to be more concerned re interstate travelers who think its no big thing.

For our delta cases, well those fishers, looking at the state of their ships, our isolation hotels with meals must look like luxury.

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