2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2748838 23-Jul-2021 18:03

137 in hospital, 13 in ICU, 14 on ventilators, 6 dead so far.

Assume 5-10 day delay from positive test to severe disease, then that's from (possibly much) fewer than 1000 cases.

Delta is pretty bad.

dafman

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#2748885 23-Jul-2021 18:20

My gut tells me we left it too late. Delta will arrive into Aotearoa with one or more of the returnees.

Hope my gut is wrong.

Oblivian

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#2748889 23-Jul-2021 18:31

Meanwhile mentioned on tonights news..
Japan. Closing in on 10% positive rate of tests. Vs about .18 in nsw

Fiji : ceasing all testing!. Asymptomatic medical staff told to keep working (leaked doc)

And by sounds, 7 days to convince us the bledisloe is a financial gain to obtain a free pass bypassing the closed door.

tdgeek

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#2748890 23-Jul-2021 18:32

Scott3:

Looking at NSW makes it clear that we need to re-work our response to focus on the delta threat. It seems likely we will have an outbreak in the next 3 months so this work can be done in advance.

Listened to a radio interview with Michel Baker. He suggested that we need to re-work the alert level system to effectively to suit the new pathogen. Stuff like more compulsory mask wearing, compulsory contact tracing sign in at high risk locations etc.

Interestingly NSW is trying to stack vaccination on top of their normal measures, asking for other states doses of pfizer to be sent their way. And putting big priority on essential workers / workplaces.

I feel vaccination is too slow as a way out (perhaps if they think they are going to be locked down for months it will be a help). Basically 2 weeks from injection to having any protection.

But I do think we should be bumping those allowed to work at L4 up the vaccine priory queue, even if that means deferring the vaccination roll out for the general public. The likes of food factories, meatworks etc need to run at all levels and have been proven to be big vectors for transmission globally.

It is clear that with an delta outbreak we are going to need to lock down to prevent harm, so I think it would be prudent to adjust our vaccination program to target those most likely to transmit the virus in those circumstances, as opposed to those most likely to die from it.

Of course with 350k+ doses a week turning up we just need to do more vaccination full stop.

100%

It will get here. We already have Delta metres offshore. Being the last kid on the block we need to learn from others. Lockdown hard and early. And the bubble till now, and the repatriated. It will get here no doubt. Look at South East Asia, some of those were Gold Standard. Australia was the Gold Standard.

tdgeek

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#2748891 23-Jul-2021 18:34

PolicyGuy:

GV27:

Yes, pre-departure tests are getting checked (apparently it is getting much better)

I can hardly believe it, but I'm almost certain I heard the PM say that the NZ Government has sent our officials to Australia to check at the airport the Covid Test status of passengers wishing to embark for travel to NZ.

The implication is that the Australian government was unwilling or unable to provide such a service.
And that seems pretty passive aggressive behaviour to me - I means it's not as if they're overwhelmed with the volume of travellers or anything.

Well, NZ gets blamed for these tests, but we cannot control Australian authorities. So we go there to manage it. I can't see the issue. Our need is Kiwis, their need is not Kiwis.

tdgeek

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#2748893 23-Jul-2021 18:37

Buster:

Australia (our best nearest friend) have a history of not exactly going out of their way to help NZ. The cost of putting our people over there to do the job properly (and be accountable) is a pittance compared to any lockdown over here.

We cheer about ANZAC, EQ support which we appreciate, bushfire support that they appreciate,but lets be frank, Frank, we are the poor cousins. And at times like this the cream sinks to the bottom. Thats not being mean, its being realistic.

tdgeek

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#2748895 23-Jul-2021 18:43

PolicyGuy:

Particularly while NSW's definition of "essential workers" includes those working in garden centres, pet shops, banks and financial institutions, hardware shops, building suppliers, and landscaping material suppliers - to name but a few

🙄

Again I don't wish to appear mean, but thats the problem. Im looking at preparing more for Delta here, that includes going to those places BEFORE it hits, so that my family can happily lockdown inside our border (fence), and not spend 18 hours a day on Netflix, chicken chips and dip. If you get prepared, L4 lockdown will be easier than last time

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Batman

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#2748897 23-Jul-2021 18:43

dafman:

My gut tells me we left it too late. Delta will arrive into Aotearoa with one or more of the returnees.

Hope my gut is wrong.

my gut says we've always been lucky, and so ... yeah

tdgeek

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#2748898 23-Jul-2021 18:45

dafman:

My gut tells me we left it too late. Delta will arrive into Aotearoa with one or more of the returnees.

Hope my gut is wrong.

I expect you are right, but what did we leave too late? We are probably the last kid on the block, and from hindsight, we can lockdown fast, rather than check the bank balance and evaluate it as others have

Zeon

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#2748900 23-Jul-2021 18:49

Fred99:

137 in hospital, 13 in ICU, 14 on ventilators, 6 dead so far.

Assume 5-10 day delay from positive test to severe disease, then that's from (possibly much) fewer than 1000 cases.

Delta is pretty bad.

Are the hospitilisations really warranted though? That is suggesting 13.7% of infected people need hospitalisation?

It's being reported that in India 67% of the population have antibodies (with most presumadly having had the virus due to low vaccination rates). They are also reporting around 4 million "excess deaths" - probably attributable to Coronavirus. Their population is ~1.3 billion which suggests 858 million have had the virus. Almost all, if they were symptomatic would not have gotten to the hospital and many others would not even have got oxygen for home if it was serious. So 4 million is <0.5% death rate with no medical support - or am I getting these numbers wrong?

Another comment here, all we talk about is Australia or UK or US. I guess we all have forgotten about the poorer countries which make up the majority of the world's population. It's pretty likely most people living in poorer countries have been exposed and have had and recover (maybe with long covid) or died from the virus. The medical systems in many of those countries are pretty stretched at the best of times. It would be interesting to see the volume of excess deaths there. Talking to people who have come from "poor" countries who still have family there, it seems many have been sick presumedly with the corona virus already.....

Speedtest 2019-10-14

tdgeek

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#2748904 23-Jul-2021 19:22

Batman:

my gut says we've always been lucky, and so ... yeah

Not luck. MIQ has a risk. Thats gone really well. Bubbles have a risk. Thats ok. But as its turned out, bubbles and the subsequent repatriation is a huge risk, that's where luck now kicks in. I'm preparing for Level 4. Now is Russian Roulette time.

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#2748922 23-Jul-2021 20:35

tdgeek:

Not luck. MIQ has a risk. Thats gone really well. Bubbles have a risk. Thats ok. But as its turned out, bubbles and the subsequent repatriation is a huge risk, that's where luck now kicks in. I'm preparing for Level 4. Now is Russian Roulette time.

I hope everybody did their shopping! We might have lost lost at Russian Roulette https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300365275/covid19-detected-in-wastewater-in-new-plymouth

shk292

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#2748923 23-Jul-2021 20:40

tdgeek:

I expect you are right, but what did we leave too late?

Closing the bubble. We've just decided to close it in one week's time, by which time we are almost certain to import a Delta strain case with no requirement for MIQ. We should have decided to close it a week ago, so that it is closed now. Or closed with less notice

freitasm

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#2748927 23-Jul-2021 20:49

sbiddle:

tdgeek:

Not luck. MIQ has a risk. Thats gone really well. Bubbles have a risk. Thats ok. But as its turned out, bubbles and the subsequent repatriation is a huge risk, that's where luck now kicks in. I'm preparing for Level 4. Now is Russian Roulette time.

I hope everybody did their shopping! We might have lost lost at Russian Roulette https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300365275/covid19-detected-in-wastewater-in-new-plymouth

FTA: "“Based on previous incidences, it is most likely that the two positive wastewater results are due to recently-recovered cases continuing to shed the virus,” the ministry said."

GV27

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#2748929 23-Jul-2021 20:51

sbiddle:
tdgeek:

Not luck. MIQ has a risk. Thats gone really well. Bubbles have a risk. Thats ok. But as its turned out, bubbles and the subsequent repatriation is a huge risk, that's where luck now kicks in. I'm preparing for Level 4. Now is Russian Roulette time.

I hope everybody did their shopping! We might have lost lost at Russian Roulette https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300365275/covid19-detected-in-wastewater-in-new-plymouth

son of a bitch, I just ran out of jelly tip whittakers

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