2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Max
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#2748932 23-Jul-2021 20:55

freitasm:

FTA: "“Based on previous incidences, it is most likely that the two positive wastewater results are due to recently-recovered cases continuing to shed the virus,” the ministry said."

Also in that article.

"It was also possible other recently-recovered cases from elsewhere in the country could have travelled to New Plymouth, the ministry said.

There are no managed isolation facilities in New Plymouth."

I don't think we've lost Russian Roulette Steve just yet!

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Batman

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#2748941 23-Jul-2021 21:35

so i gather that somebody knows something that we don't - is that what everyone's saying?

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#2748942 23-Jul-2021 21:38

Fred99:

That [Other states pfizer going to NSW] will go down like a cup of cold sick over there, probably even in other states with coalition premiers that have been far more cautious / quick to lock down than NSW.

Absolutely other states will be extremely upset if / when their Pfizer doses get allocated to NSW.

But I still think it is the right thing to do. Domestic borders are going to be somewhat porous, and NSW could drag down the rest of Aussie with itself.

But, it will take at least a week to organised, Then the essential workforce vaccinations will take a few weeks. Once people have got their first dose, it takes cira 2 weeks to get 30% effectiveness against delta, and full protection from both course kicks in about 2 weeks after the second dose, with a 3 week spacing that worked out to 5 weeks...

Vaccination to get yourself out of an outbreak can only be a secondary fallback method.

Wonder if national government or other states will pressure NSW to lock down to about NZ Level 4 in order to get the doses sent their way?

wellygary

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#2748945 23-Jul-2021 21:59

Batman:
so i gather that somebody knows something that we don't - is that what everyone's saying?

I’m guessing there is info on the CT count along with the catchment size etc....

There were a bunch of similar positives through the Wellington region a while ago, so it’s not like we haven’t been n this spot before ... would be interesting to know if there is a big enough sample to genome test from this ...

Dratsab

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#2748955 23-Jul-2021 22:42

freitasm:

sbiddle: I hope everybody did their shopping! We might have lost lost at Russian Roulette https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300365275/covid19-detected-in-wastewater-in-new-plymouth

FTA: "“Based on previous incidences, it is most likely that the two positive wastewater results are due to recently-recovered cases continuing to shed the virus,” the ministry said."

Surely you're not trying to suggest people read and understand full articles rather then just skim them or only look at the headlines????

Fred99

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#2749013 24-Jul-2021 01:58

They won't be able to sequence fragments to link that positive to known cases that left MIQ or from the fishing boats.

As I understand from the stuff article, it's not two samples testing positive, it's one sample tested twice to check if the first may have been a false positive.

Anyway, curse this news. It might end up as nothing to worry about as suggested in the article, but they cannot know.

Fingers crossed.

mattwnz

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#2749014 24-Jul-2021 02:19

Fred99:

They won't be able to sequence fragments to link that positive to known cases that left MIQ or from the fishing boats.

As I understand from the stuff article, it's not two samples testing positive, it's one sample tested twice to check if the first may have been a false positive.

Anyway, curse this news. It might end up as nothing to worry about as suggested in the article, but they cannot know.

Fingers crossed.

If you watched the news tonight, they discussed the financials of the bubble, and it showed that there was very little economic benefit to having the transtasman bubble open. And if we end up going into the lockdowns, the cost is going to be huge. I think it has all been political, the opposition is acting coy, when they were the ones gunning for this bubble. I don't know many people who thought it was a good idea, and many thought it should have been closed weeks ago when NSW went nuclear with covid. I would be surprised if we dodged a bullet from this whole thing, and we do still have people returning from Oz. I just hope we are doing a lot of testing at the moment of people with symptoms. People aren't scanning, so I suspect if we do get cases, it will mean a level 2 or 3 for a region.

Also with these fishing boats that have tested positive. Hadn't these people already done 14 days MIQ when flying to NZ, before getting on the boats?

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Batman

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#2749021 24-Jul-2021 06:25

mattwnz:

If you watched the news tonight, they discussed the financials of the bubble, and it showed that there was very little economic benefit to having the transtasman bubble open. And if we end up going into the lockdowns, the cost is going to be huge. I think it has all been political, the opposition is acting coy, when they were the ones gunning for this bubble. I don't know many people who thought it was a good idea, and many thought it should have been closed weeks ago when NSW went nuclear with covid.

they genuinely thought it was a good idea at the time - AU/NZ had the previous strains sorted. get CT, snap lockdown, it went away.

they did the bubble thing without considering the delta strain which we now know snap lockdowns don't work - both because the strain is better and the people are fatigued.

it was a damned if you do and damned if you don't.

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#2749022 24-Jul-2021 06:46

covid games (yes i'm watching it while it's not cancelled - why not, i'm not a netflix guy) are 85% vaccinated https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/olympics/300365286/tokyo-olympics-at-least-100-us-athletes-unvaccinated-as-games-begin

Batman

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#2749023 24-Jul-2021 07:03

moderna approved for 12-17 in europe https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57947183

sbiddle

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#2749024 24-Jul-2021 07:23

mattwnz:

If you watched the news tonight, they discussed the financials of the bubble, and it showed that there was very little economic benefit to having the transtasman bubble open. And if we end up going into the lockdowns, the cost is going to be huge. I think it has all been political, the opposition is acting coy, when they were the ones gunning for this bubble. I don't know many people who thought it was a good idea, and many thought it should have been closed weeks ago when NSW went nuclear with covid. I would be surprised if we dodged a bullet from this whole thing, and we do still have people returning from Oz. I just hope we are doing a lot of testing at the moment of people with symptoms. People aren't scanning, so I suspect if we do get cases, it will mean a level 2 or 3 for a region.

Viewing the bubble as only about financials is the first big mistake - it was never about that. It was predicted that the vast majority of bubble travelers would be friends and family reconnecting, and that's exactly what happened. It also allowed a significant number of people who are reliant on travel to work to return to work. I'm not sure that the "economic benefits" of the bubble really has to do with why we should or shouldn't have a bubble.

The past few months has just further demonstrated there was no good reason for not having had a two way bubble since last year when Australia opened their one way bubble.

What's pretty clear is things are going to be very polarising when we try and open the country up in a 10-12 months when the rest of the world has moved on and fortress NZ wants to stay closed.

tdgeek

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#2749027 24-Jul-2021 08:40

mattwnz:

If you watched the news tonight, they discussed the financials of the bubble, and it showed that there was very little economic benefit to having the transtasman bubble open.

Always thought that, tourism here gets a boost, and NZ$ leave the economy here to feed tourism over there, net benefit is minimal at best. The only benefit I saw was family and friends meetings

tdgeek

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#2749028 24-Jul-2021 08:47

sbiddle:

What's pretty clear is things are going to be very polarising when we try and open the country up in a 10-12 months when the rest of the world has moved on and fortress NZ wants to stay closed.

Perhaps. Once vaccination is complete in December, we do need to open up to vaccinated arrivals. Whether its Dec 2021 or Dec 2025, its the same risk. Govt needs to educate the public and no choice but to move ahead. The caveat is end of year strains and how capable the vaccine is then. Booster shots have been in the media at times, that could cause a delay, or a restricted open up.

NZ as a fortress has been ok, its done the job, warding off the virus as vaccinations occur. Most other countries are fighting rampant cases while also vaccinating, better here.

Fred99

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#2749029 24-Jul-2021 08:49

sbiddle:

What's pretty clear is things are going to be very polarising when we try and open the country up in a 10-12 months when the rest of the world has moved on and fortress NZ wants to stay closed.

Doomer.

You have no idea what the situation will be in 10-12 months - here or in the rest of the world.

The response here has been and will continue to be adjusted depending on changing circumstances.

Partisan sniping doesn't help anybody or anything.

Oblivian

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#2749031 24-Jul-2021 09:02

mattwnz:
Also with these fishing boats that have tested positive. Hadn't these people already done 14 days MIQ when flying to NZ, before getting on the boats?

Only the ones where crew changes are taking place. One of them, and the tanker. Have been at-sea. No crew swaps.

But, it's possible that changed and they only have a pre-departure test requirement like everyone else heading to 14days inbound here. Forget the initial russian change promise and plans. The sudima saga changed everything

The deal is, They transfer direct to ship in a bubble. With the expectation they depart immediately and pose no threats.

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