2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2749819 26-Jul-2021 10:35

wellygary:

Meh, whiffly waffly science :)

In NZ we have politicians and the Media :(

"Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer says the Covid-19 found in Taranaki’s wastewater last week is the Delta variant. In a Facebook post on Monday morning Ngarewa-Packer encouraged symptomatic people to get tested, saying it was “clearly the Delta strain”.

Ngarewa-Packer said she had been briefed by the Taranaki Health Board (TDHB) “to deal with the Covid kaupapa we have going on in the wider New Plymouth area”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/125861286/covid19-in-new-plymouths-wastewater-is-delta-variant--mori-party-coleader-says

Cool. I am cancelling my Google sub and will get a paid Facebook sub, so I can better keep up with world affairs... :-)

Fred99

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#2749824 26-Jul-2021 10:47

wellygary:

In NZ we have politicians and the Media :(

It's infuriating that the article actually quotes the reliable source a few paragraphs in saying "nope - we don't know" , but publishes the article with that headline and someone talking utter BS is given a platform to spread something they've been told is BS - apparently just because they're a politician.

At least the result of that would be possible "over-caution". They also publish sob-stories and articles written by freedumb advocates.

wellygary

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#2749848 26-Jul-2021 11:11

Fred99:

wellygary:

In NZ we have politicians and the Media :(

It's infuriating that the article actually quotes the reliable source a few paragraphs in saying "nope - we don't know" , but publishes the article with that headline and someone talking utter BS is given a platform to spread something they've been told is BS - apparently just because they're a politician.

At least the result of that would be possible "over-caution". They also publish sob-stories and articles written by freedumb advocates.

Although the article is right in one comment "The Delta variant was the only strain about at the moment."

MoH are quietly publishing a weekly update of the variants coming through MIQ,

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-resources-and-tools/covid-19-science-news#variants

and for the last few weeks the Delta number is pretty much the only game in town... ( although the ship crews will have seriously skewed this weeks report)

"Whole genome sequencing in New Zealand up to 19 July 2021 has identified the following VOCs:
• 185 sequences of Alpha – no change in Alpha sequences since the previous update
• 33 sequences of Beta (including its sub-lineages) – an increase of 1 in Beta sequences since the
previous update
• 8 sequences of Gamma – no change in Gamma sequences since the previous update
• 46 sequences of Delta - an increase of 19 Delta sequences since the previous update"

GV27

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#2749851 26-Jul-2021 11:16

Are we still on daily 1pm updates at the moment?

Scott3

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#2749852 26-Jul-2021 11:16

wellygary:

DS248:

Rumour or not, hopefully we are trying to do a lot better than this

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300365802/new-zealand-is-not-the-worlds-postcovid-future

"But, quietly around the edges, we hear signals that nobody should really be able to expect to travel for another year."

The NZ Imitative ( ex business round table) are stirring again....

While it will not be politically credible to hold the borders closed if we have a significantly fully vaccinated population... when that happens is still unclear, but certainly at the moment the levels of global severe infection/hospitalisation/death amongst the fully vaccinated is still low... if that remains the borders simply can't remain as closed as they are now...,

It's a pretty loaded piece (as you would expect with the writer linked to a lobby group)

There are a few key issues

- What is a "significantly fully vaccinated population" Back before delta, it was pretty simple. Enough vaccination to give herd immunity (something like 75% - 80%, a seemly viable "stretch" goal.) of the total population. That way when covid-19 is let back into NZ r0 will be below 1, and any clusters will die out without intervention.

Sadly with the more contagious and vaccine resistant delta strain, the number is now something like 95%+. Realistically not going to happen. That means that covid-19 being let back in means accepting it will become endemic in NZ, and we will need to deal with the social, economic and medical costs that come with covid-19 running though the vaccinated population, and the percentage of the vaccinated population for which get the virus anyway. Could well require spending the entire winter after we open back up at level 2 to manage hospital loads. (our hospitals are currently under stain from RSV, when covid-19 is let back in we will not only get covid-19 but also influenza and what ever other pathogens NZ/ Aus have eliminated).

There is a lot of talk of booster shots. Israel is stating to give 3rd doses of Pfizer to it's most vulnerable. Pfizer is devolving a special delta resistant booster etc. Do we need to wait for this to be "Sufficiently vaccinated"

- "borders simply can't remain as closed as they are now". Of course we can. Obviously would suck for families like mine with extended family offshore, but if the benefits of re-opening don't outweigh the costs it is logical to stay closed. As a whole the NZ economy is cranking under the current arrangement. Also it is gently moving to a higher wage economy, due to less volume in low wage industries like tourism, and visa holders are no longer depressing wages in industries like hospitality. This is generally good for the general public of NZ.

Of course we should be perpetually evaluating this, given increasing amounts of information on the impact of living with endemic covid-19 is coming to light.

And of course we need to time out re-opening between spring and mid summer. Re-opening due to a domestic outbreak in Autumn would be the worst possible outcome. In Nov 2021 we need to make a call if we are going to reopen in December, or to keep covid-19 out (via lockdowns if needed) until at least October 2022

I'm amused the the below article was published on the same day as the the opinion piece. Pretty obvious that Canada is a cherry picked example, and it is mostly just talk. Other places have re-opened, and it is not going swimmingly.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/destinations/europe/300366276/europes-reopening-to-tourists-hasnt-gone-according-to-plan

Scott3

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#2749855 26-Jul-2021 11:19

wellygary:

Although the article is right in one comment "The Delta variant was the only strain about at the moment."

MoH are quietly publishing a weekly update of the variants coming through MIQ,

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-resources-and-tools/covid-19-science-news#variants

and for the last few weeks the Delta number is pretty much the only game in town... ( although the ship crews will have seriously skewed this weeks report)

"Whole genome sequencing in New Zealand up to 19 July 2021 has identified the following VOCs:
• 185 sequences of Alpha – no change in Alpha sequences since the previous update
• 33 sequences of Beta (including its sub-lineages) – an increase of 1 in Beta sequences since the
previous update
• 8 sequences of Gamma – no change in Gamma sequences since the previous update
• 46 sequences of Delta - an increase of 19 Delta sequences since the previous update"

It does seem clear that it is the dominant strain currenlty placing NZ at risk by far.

But for that to be relevant you would need to be able to determine if the virus fragments detected were recent, or historic. At this stage, evidence it was the original covid-19 in the waste water would be great news, as it is most likely historic.

ezbee

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#2749893 26-Jul-2021 12:36

The message in the article seems very mixed, we need to join the world in Y2022, so open travel everywhere no restrictions on fixed timetable ?
So Boris Johnson it ? Do it, do it in summer no matter what ?
Leap don't look ?

Is it more realistic that there will be limited safe travel zones, as an intermediate condition for a long time to come ?
Locations continuing burn of variants at too high a level, unreliable data to know, unlikely to be vaccinated for years, excluded.
We also have those that sabotaged themselves, made it political, blocked sensible verification of health, vaccination status.
Well no fan of cruising, norovirus might be missing it, but we see a cruise company fighting political idiocy on verifying passenger health.

Vaccination, well the top line % does hide that the age spread is not even, so we have spread in younger mobile groups.
Unfortunately there are significant groupings where its possible majority will be unvaccinated.
In UK we can see that regular holidays to distant sunny spots, travel to major religious festivals combined at start of year.

Between us and post Covid world likely a 'difficult' transition period potentially long as conditions will vary greatly across the world ?

Open to whom under what conditions, what are the priorities, there is the rub ?
Essential workers, minimum wage workers, limited high value tourism, limited high value education, mass tourism, mass education.
Do we want mass tourism from a certain country, our past biggest mass tourism source that does not allow independent verification ?

Do we switch marketing and not repeat mistakes of big Rail and Kodak etc.

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frankv

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#2749900 26-Jul-2021 13:04

ezbee:

The message in the article seems very mixed, we need to join the world in Y2022, so open travel everywhere no restrictions on fixed timetable ?
So Boris Johnson it ? Do it, do it in summer no matter what ?
Leap don't look ?

I think the US experience is clear -- opening when there's still significant parts of the population unvaccinated doesn't actually help your economy much. So there's not much benefit from opening sooner with large numbers of unvaccinated rather than later with good coverage. So why impose a "no matter what" timetable?

tdgeek

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#2749905 26-Jul-2021 13:16

When NZ is fully vaccinated (those who can be or want to be) then a vaccinated Kiwi could go anywhere they like, as they are vaccinated for their own protection and other countries will only allow vaccinated people in. NZ, any vaccinated people can come here

Isnt it that simple?

Fred99

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#2749907 26-Jul-2021 13:19

NSW recorded 145 new locally acquired COVID-19 cases in the 24 hours to 8:00pm yesterday.

Fifty-one of the cases were in the community while infectious.

Another 25 cases were in the community for part of their infectious period while the isolation status of 11 cases are still under investigation.

There are 156 COVID-19 patient being treated in hospital, with 44 people in intensive care, 18 of whom are on ventilators.

Oblivian

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#2749912 26-Jul-2021 13:30

Snowball

The community numbers starting to outrun the total known/linked number.

Scott3

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#2749916 26-Jul-2021 13:40

tdgeek:

When NZ is fully vaccinated (those who can be or want to be) then a vaccinated Kiwi could go anywhere they like, as they are vaccinated for their own protection and other countries will only allow vaccinated people in. NZ, any vaccinated people can come here

Isnt it that simple?

For "Any vaccinated people" to come to NZ, we won't be able to have enough MIQ space to do managed isolation, so will need to have isolation free arrivals for vaccinated travelers.

Vaccines range in effectiveness between cira 55% and cira 95% depending on brand / virus strain etc. That's nothing like the effectiveness of MIQ at keeping covid-19 out. So you are essentially accepting releasing covid-19 in the community, and accepting it will be endemic.

Realisticlly we can't get herd immunity against delta with current vaccines. So we either run with this, or wait for delta specific boosters.

The costs of having endemic widespread covid-19 in NZ will need to be weighted again the benefits of reopening travel by people smarter than me. But very important any re-opening is done in spring / summer.

Technofreak

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#2749917 26-Jul-2021 13:41

Seems to me we are inviting Covid in via the back door.

PM commits to getting Kiwis back from Australia within deadline

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Scott3

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#2749919 26-Jul-2021 13:45

Technofreak:

Seems to me we are inviting Covid in via the back door.

PM commits to getting Kiwis back from Australia within deadline

The risk we are carrying seems super high. 10's of thousands returning, from places like NSW / Queensland with no managed isolation.

Personally not really sure the alternative. MIQ is slammed, and we really need to put the trans Tasman bubble back in the bag. Perhaps we could preemptively move to level 2 for three weeks? Our luck is going to run out at some point.

PolicyGuy

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#2749923 26-Jul-2021 13:53

Fred99:

I think we're supposed to have "An Exit Plan" prepared/released in August. It's probably too early to be conclusive about anything.

As {the Australian} population, lifestyle etc is close to ours and with a similar vaccination rate, they're the best example we should use - not saying we should follow their "exit plan", they make mistakes too.

Except the Australians don't actually have an exit plan

Their PM announced something he called a plan, but it isn't really one
He said there would be four stages: "Stage 1" is where they are now (except that was before the current NSW-originated outbreak, so maybe they're actually at "Step 0" a.t.m. and it's a 5-step "plan"); "Stage 2" is when they've got a lot more people vaccinated, and there will be no inter-state restrictions; "Stage 3" is when everyone is vaccinated and they can have travel bubbles with quite a few highly-vaccinated places; and "Stage 4" is everything back to 'normal'

Note that there are no dates, no numbers, nothing measurable

This is not a Plan, it's a political theatre "plan"

Also note that he has absolutely no control over the "there will be no inter-state restrictions" bit.
That's down to the various State Premiers who make decisions based on their own political and health criteria.

Bah, humbug!

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