wellygary:

 

JPNZ:

 

 

 

I honestly don't know what they can do except lockdown even harder. The current lockdown is obviously not working. I thought it had the opportunity to get out of control just over a week ago, I believe now its going to be almost impossible for NSW to get back to Zero Covid this year. 

 

 

NSW's lockdown is basically a holding action... it won't suppress it...

 

Their main line of attack is to vaccinate their way out.....

 

Currently they have 1.4 million ppl fully vaccinated with an additional 1.5 million with 1 dose (SYD pop ~5 million)

 

7 day rolling vaccination numbers are 77K/day  and climbing ( were ~40K/day a month ago) 

 

Envelope maths says....

 

5 million population, assume 4 million over 16.. to vaccinate 75% of 4 million requires 6 million doses. subtract the ~3 million already administered leaves 3 million doses to give.... @77K/day= ~500K per week., means 6 weeks for 3 million doses. ( maybe sooner if they can continue to ramp and don't run into hesitancy...) 

 

They are holding out for numbers to start declining off the back of more and more fully vaccinated..,.

 

 

 

Its a great big "help me Obi-wan Kenobi you're my only hope"

 

 

 

Then it is going to be dependent on the entire country being vaccinated if the borders reopen anytime soon. They seem to be blaming the Delta strain, but the simple fact is they didn't lockdown early enough, and when they did their lockdowns were not strict. They can't blame Delta when other states locked down far earlier and were able to eliminate it.