2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2762248 18-Aug-2021 10:42

networkn:

My son had a test yesterday, returned negative this morning. Turn around on results much improved over recent times.

My wife reported half the people on the skiifields in the past few days had varying degrees of illness.

I hope that wastewater testing in Q'town would pick up CT, but it's not an instant enough process - if there was the start of a cluster, then by the time results came through from a sample - even though that is sensitive enough to detect one case - then one or two iterations of transmission could have happened. Then of course from Q'town, people are going home. Big yikes if there's a case there.

DS248

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#2762249 18-Aug-2021 10:48

sbiddle:

DS248:

Briefly changing the subject!

Israel has now given 3rd doses to well over 60% of people 70 and older, and over 50% of the 60-69 age group (& now increasingly giving 3rd doses to the 50-59 group).

Will be interesting to see how this impacts the numbers of seriously ill patients and deaths, the former now approaching the Sep-Oct 20 peak (and ~half the Jan 21 peak).

Daily case numbers now exceed all but those during the Jan-early Feb 21 peak. On present trends even that could well be exceeded soon (8646+new cases yesterday, which is the 9th largest daily total since the start of the pandemic).

The world seems to have a strange fixation with Israel and Covid case numbers, but the reality is their rollout has all but stalled with a significant percentage of the population who are simply unwilling to be vaccinated. Once they hit high 50's of the total population vully vaccinated in April things have basically gone nowhere.

...

My post was about 3rd doses, where (in 'defiance' of WHO) the percentages are much higher than almost any other country.

Israel has an atypically high proportion of it's population under 20 compared to most western countries, hence the apparently 'low' vaccination rate based on total population. Since Delta arrived they though have ramped up vaccinations of the 16-19 age group and more recently the 12-15 age group.

As can be seen from the plot I copied off their website, well over 85% of people over 20 have had at least one dose, with possibly somewhat over 80% fully vaccinated. Hence the earlier 'stagnation' in vaccination rate. Many countries will struggle to reach those percentages.

The interest in Israel is that they, along with a small number of other countries (now including Singapore), are providing a useful test of mRNA vaccine effectiveness against Delta that should be of interest to us. eg;

impact on case numbers, serious illness and deaths at various 'lockdown' and border control settings
changes in effectiveness with time since vaccination
and soon, effectiveness of a third dose of the same vaccine ~6 months down the track

freitasm

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#2762255 18-Aug-2021 10:50

@Rikkitic:

freitasm:

I've just called my local medical centre and booked a test for minutes from now. Was in Auckland last week for a day. Had a runny nose and wife a sore throat. Being tested in ten minutes.

I hope you are both okay, Mauricio. Good luck.

Thank you.

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#2762256 18-Aug-2021 10:51

article from Herald 18/8/21.

mainly about the testing queue in AKL

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-cases-lockdown-in-place-long-queues-at-testing-centres/BBMZNSKMD4XR56ZVXQIOX4JAPE/

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#2762258 18-Aug-2021 10:53

DS248:

My post was about 3rd doses, where (in 'defiance' of WHO) the percentages are much higher than almost any other country.

Israel has an atypically high proportion of it's population under 20 compared to most western countries, hence the apparently 'low' vaccination rate based on total population. Since Delta arrived they though have ramped up vaccinations of the 16-19 age group and more recently the 12-15 age group.

As can be seen from the plot I copied off their website, well over 85% of people over 20 have had at least one dose, with possibly somewhat over 80% fully vaccinated. Hence the earlier 'stagnation' in vaccination rate. Many countries will struggle to reach those percentages.

The interest in Israel is that they, along with a small number of other countries (now including Singapore), are providing a useful test of mRNA vaccine effectiveness against Delta that should be of interest to us. eg;

impact on case numbers, serious illness and deaths at various 'lockdown' and border control settings
changes in effectiveness with time since vaccination
and soon, effectiveness of a third dose of the same vaccine ~6 months down the track

thinking out loud.

3rd dose should be quite easy.

take some delta virus, there's plenty around. put them in the microwave and inject it as a booster.

something like that. clearly i know nothing about how to make vaccines.

Fred99

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#2762315 18-Aug-2021 11:07

DS248:

My post was about 3rd doses, where (in 'defiance' of WHO) the percentages are much higher than almost any other country.

Do you have an inkling of why WHO might not be endorsing "third doses"?

Two doses of vaccine is very effective against hospitalisation and death.
Clinical trials of the three dose regimen are not complete. There could be risk of harm, possible scenarios = antibody dependant enhancement / original antigenic sin. Small risk - but it would have very bad consequences.
There's a global shortage of vaccine that WHO are trying to manage - especially of the (most effective) mRNA vaccines. They don't (and shouldn't) prioritise supply or encourage prioritisation to rich countries, when one third dose to an Israel citizen is one less first or second dose to someone elsewhere.

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#2762316 18-Aug-2021 11:07

Stupidity knows no bounds. I guess one has to pay the local toilets or carpark or library by credit card in Coromandel

Covid-19: Coromandel mayor lax on scanning despite community scare | Stuff.co.nz

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

networkn

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#2762318 18-Aug-2021 11:12

Fred99:

networkn:

My son had a test yesterday, returned negative this morning. Turn around on results much improved over recent times.

My wife reported half the people on the skiifields in the past few days had varying degrees of illness.

I hope that wastewater testing in Q'town would pick up CT, but it's not an instant enough process - if there was the start of a cluster, then by the time results came through from a sample - even though that is sensitive enough to detect one case - then one or two iterations of transmission could have happened. Then of course from Q'town, people are going home. Big yikes if there's a case there.

Yup, everyone, except me woke up sick, tests galore right now.

martyyn

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#2762319 18-Aug-2021 11:13

The stupidity is everywhere.

One of my clients has already had half a dozen people knocking on their store windows asking if they were open this morning !

MikeB4

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#2762321 18-Aug-2021 11:18

A complication right now is Allergy season. On the hills around where I live the Wattle trees are in bloom and everything has a yellow film. Our caravan is covered in it. Having a screwed immune system I have very bad Hayfever now, blocked Sinus, runny nose, cough etc.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

Oblivian

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#2762332 18-Aug-2021 11:22

MikeB4:

A complication right now is Allergy season. On the hills around where I live the Wattle trees are in bloom and everything has a yellow film. Our caravan is covered in it. Having a screwed immune system I have very bad Hayfever now, blocked Sinus, runny nose, cough etc.

Had the same thing last year. I think it was last week I had a reminder we had just toggled between 3/4. Lots of defensive sufferers saying they shouldn't be subject to a test. But when one can mask the other..

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#2762334 18-Aug-2021 11:24

networkn:

My son had a test yesterday, returned negative this morning. Turn around on results much improved over recent times.

My wife reported half the people on the skiifields in the past few days had varying degrees of illness.

This is just a change in climates therefore bugs. 🤞

I used to quite frequently get cold like symptoms going from NZ/Aussie to Asia and Asia to Aussie/NZ, just for 24/48 hrs. This is just the body re-recognising an old bug it knows about but now needs to bring the soldiers that know how to fight it, out from hibernation. During this initial response stage you can experience signs & symptoms (runny nose, cough, temp etc). Frequent travellers don't experience this as their soldiers are always on alert. (airline staff) Of course this is a very basic explanation.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

duckDecoy

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#2762337 18-Aug-2021 11:28

MikeB4:

Stupidity knows no bounds. I guess one has to pay the local toilets or carpark or library by credit card in Coromandel

Covid-19: Coromandel mayor lax on scanning despite community scare | Stuff.co.nz

She claims that its OK because if it comes down to it she can check her bank statements and figure out where she has been. Rather than relying on probably close to instant notifications being sent out to everyone else who was in the same place via the covid app. No clue.

Wakrak

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#2762344 18-Aug-2021 11:38

duckDecoy

She claims that its OK because if it comes down to it she can check her bank statements and figure out where she has been. Rather than relying on probably close to instant notifications being sent out to everyone else who was in the same place via the covid app. No clue.

Yeah and what if she went into a store and didn't buy a thing.

sbiddle

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#2762345 18-Aug-2021 11:39

MikeB4:

A complication right now is Allergy season. On the hills around where I live the Wattle trees are in bloom and everything has a yellow film. Our caravan is covered in it. Having a screwed immune system I have very bad Hayfever now, blocked Sinus, runny nose, cough etc.

I had sinus surgery last week (turbinate reduction) which is in part due to my allergy issues. It was bad timing getting this done at the same time as the pine pollen - if I needed a Covid test right now my nose is so blocked from the surgery recovery and pollen that I'm not sure the brain probe would get up it!

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