2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2768179 28-Aug-2021 20:14

mattwnz: Just returned from supermarket and some staff are still not wearing masks, only plastic face shields. I am not that surprised that supermarkets are becoming covid hotshots. I suspect if I report it to the supermarket they will say that they are permitted as an alternative. I think Auckland may see supermarket shopping restrictions but I don't know how that will work

Not here in ChCh. Ironic somewhat.

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#2768180 28-Aug-2021 20:17

mattwnz: I thought i heard the PM say that their was a case from an essential workplace caught after lockdown. We have to remember that there are still a lot of people working in workplaces that are considered essential

Always a risk, but we are told nothing about anything. So what you post is not relevant as the team of 5 million are not informed.

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#2768182 28-Aug-2021 20:24

Fred99:

Reading some of the posts above, I suspect a few people may only be reading news media or the MoH daily summary.

There's a press release as well:

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/82-additional-community-cases-covid-19-1-new-case-managed-isolation-facility-more-89000-vaccines

Yes, but its all meaningless.

Of these 82 new cases, 62 are Pacific peoples, five are Asian, four are European, two are Māori , one is Middle Eastern/Latin American/African, and the ethnicity of eight is unknown

What I italiced is meaningful, it "should" be household cases, but we arent told that. So like many lay people I will just assume its out of control.

For me I will assume 62 are Pasifika is the church festival, all household infections, not important as they are already isolating. The Asian, Europe and Maori have reduced. Thats seems good especially as some of these will also be houeehold contacts. But the media and Govt releases tell us all its a shocker.

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#2768184 28-Aug-2021 20:26

mattwnz:

HelloThere:

The MOH may not be releasing any more details about the cases because if there is little or no CT happening other parts of NZ especially the SI might start causing a noise about being stuck in L3 and want a shift to L2 or even L1.

I would doubt it, because NZ is a mobile country and there is still essential travel occurring throughout NZ which could allow it to spread. This is really the problem we now have, containing the outbreak to Auckland, and starving the virus of new hosts .

Listening to the Kaka podcast, it sounds like the issue is more to do with the contact tracing being overwhelmed, so taking far longer to trace cases back. I read a few days ago that a 1/4 of close contacts of POIs have yet to be tested.

NZ is NOT a mobile country. We are all in Level 4

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#2768195 28-Aug-2021 20:43

tdgeek:

NZ is NOT a mobile country. We are all in Level 4

~550,000 are still working. There are thousands of trucks daily still heading between the regions including huge numbers bringing essential goods from Auckland to the rest of the North Island.

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#2768196 28-Aug-2021 20:53

sbiddle:

tdgeek:

NZ is NOT a mobile country. We are all in Level 4

~550,000 are still working. There are thousands of trucks daily still heading between the regions including huge numbers bringing essential goods from Auckland to the rest of the North Island.

550,000 crossing the Tasman Sea every day? Logistics will need to find a solution, last I read was NI drivers park up at Wellington, SI drivers take over at Picton or the ChCh. Doesn't seem hard

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#2768199 28-Aug-2021 21:08

tdgeek:

sbiddle:

tdgeek:

NZ is NOT a mobile country. We are all in Level 4

~550,000 are still working. There are thousands of trucks daily still heading between the regions including huge numbers bringing essential goods from Auckland to the rest of the North Island.

550,000 crossing the Tasman Sea every day? Logistics will need to find a solution, last I read was NI drivers park up at Wellington, SI drivers take over at Picton or the ChCh. Doesn't seem hard

I assume you mean Cook St?

Lots (but not all) drivers cross with their trucks and still do this under L4. They are looking at ways to get around that if the South Island moved to a different level to the North Island but there will clearly be some challenges.

The issue is more in the North Island - there are huge numbers of trucks that need to enter and exit Auckland and if there is still CT going on that does post issues for the rest of the North Island.

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#2768200 28-Aug-2021 21:09

https://twitter.com/ConorWhittenTV/status/1431486232362582021?s=20

New figures from Health:

73 essential workers have now tested positive
55% of cases detected since lockdown were infectious in the community
"Most" exposure happened before lockdown, but MoH can't tell me if any cases have spread between bubbles in L4

This is the sort of crucial information Professor Michael Baker says should be given daily. What's still missing:

- How many essential workers were infectious in the workplace

- How many cases of COVID-19 have spread outside bubbles at Alert Level 4

As many people have said, the public doesn't have enough information to form an opinion on if the lock down is going to work or not. The next 3-4 days should give us a pretty good idea.

In my mind the single factor that will determine the success & failure of our lock-down will be transmission between households via essential workers.

Despite the suggestion by an analyst today that we could tighten restrictions (i.e. close some supermarkets) to reduce spread, I think we have basically got one shot at this, for the following reasons:

Most interpersonal contact with essential workers is likely to be in stuff that is truly essential like food supply, policing etc. Can't really get rid of that.
The suggestion to close some supermarkets, would just result in increased load on other supermarkets, which risks being counter-productive. More people shopping at a lesser number of supermarkets means more interpersonal contact, and harder contact tracing. (And could well trigger a massive rush of panic buying)
Lock-down compliance / and attention to containment measures declines overtime, The lock down will be most effective now.

I am extremely hopeful that level 4 gets the job done, we only need to look at NSW too see what failure looks like, and it isn't pretty...

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#2768202 28-Aug-2021 21:15

Another fully vaccinated border worker has tested positive - going to be very interesting to see if this was CT or transmission within the facility.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300393812/covid19-auckland-miq-worker-tests-positive-possibly-linked-to-delta-outbreak

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#2768204 28-Aug-2021 21:21

Scott3:

I am extremely hopeful that level 4 gets the job done, we only need to look at NSW too see what failure looks like, and it isn't pretty...

What happens if it doesn't? I hope they do to, but if we don't see a drop that is going to be a great concern for all of us.

When you talk failure it's not just NSW - Victoria too have failed to eliminate Delta off a similar number of cases.

Case numbers over the next few days are going to be very interesting. If they rise there are going to have to be very tough questions asked of everybody who stood on the lectern at 1pm and told us so confidently that they would have peaked by now.

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#2768208 28-Aug-2021 22:01

sbiddle:

Scott3:

I am extremely hopeful that level 4 gets the job done, we only need to look at NSW too see what failure looks like, and it isn't pretty...

What happens if it doesn't? I hope they do to, but if we don't see a drop that is going to be a great concern for all of us.

When you talk failure it's not just NSW - Victoria too have failed to eliminate Delta off a similar number of cases.

Case numbers over the next few days are going to be very interesting. If they rise there are going to have to be very tough questions asked of everybody who stood on the lectern at 1pm and told us so confidently that they would have peaked by now.

If Current level 4 fails to contain covid-19 case growth, the officials will have a major decision point, to continue pushing for elimination, or give up on that goal.

To continue pushing for elimination they would need to invent Alert level 5, with even harsher restrictions of movement. Perhaps we could go back to the original level 4, and not allowing the delivery of essential appliances etc, we could ban exercise in public, etc. Personally I feel it wouldn't get the support of the public, and any reduced personal contact would be outweighed by reduced compliance / caution from the public...

Accepting endemic covid-19, I think would mean moving the entire of NZ to level 3 (to strike a balance between slowing the virus, and allowing economic activity), and keeping it their until the end of November, when our vaccine roll out is nearing completion.

Like NSW we would see growing case numbers, and our hospital system would likely become strained. Our vaccination program would basically become a race to keep hospital loads manageable against growing covid-19 numbers. Hopefully at the end of November our vacciantion program will be far enough advanced, that combined with good weather we can drop to level 2 (and perhaps down to 1.5) for summer. At this point we allow isolation free travel to vaccinated arrivals, with testing etc. From then on, we will become like much of the rest of the devolved world, living with covid19, but still with some restrictions to manage the volume of cases.

I'm not keen on spending the next three months at at level 3/4, but at least that option would provide a route to re-opening to the world...

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#2768210 28-Aug-2021 22:10

So looks like level 3 page was recently updated too. And I expect will be leading up until wednesday to align with the current requirements https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-levels-and-updates/alert-level-3/#when-to-wear-a-face-covering

However... How long until the web admin realise there is no health order update other than the current one, to require face covering in supermarkets below 4 specifically.

Although most people will probably keep it up. There is bound to be a keen person who realises, refuse and stir everyone else up who isn't as aware.

Although it may then fall back onto right of entry/service (as long as it isn't descriminatory)

Added a chrome addon to see if it can compare the cached pages for changed to see what else gets modified going forward

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#2768211 28-Aug-2021 22:12

sbiddle:

Another fully vaccinated border worker has tested positive - going to be very interesting to see if this was CT or transmission within the facility.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300393812/covid19-auckland-miq-worker-tests-positive-possibly-linked-to-delta-outbreak

it was a matter of time with Delta

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#2768212 28-Aug-2021 22:13

It is a fair assumption that there will be a new health order to cover the pending alert level changes.

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#2768216 28-Aug-2021 22:50

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126214381/dairy-owners-and-staff-now-able-to-get-vaccinated-as-essential-workers

Dairy owners jumped to gp2/essential so can use the stood up drive-throughs

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